Confirmed Missile Strike (Kharkiv): Russian forces conducted a ballistic/rocket strike on the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv city (0332Z, RBC-UA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Expansion of KAB Strikes: VKS aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches to include Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (0330Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
OWA-UAV Activity (South): Shahed-type drones are actively transiting toward Zaporizhzhia from both southern and eastern vectors (0323Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Casualty in Sevastopol: Russian-appointed authorities claim one civilian fatality and property damage in Sevastopol due to shrapnel from a downed Ukrainian UAV (0329Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Internal Russian Suppression: A journalist in Ryazan was detained for a 300-ruble donation to the FBK, indicating continued intensification of domestic security measures (0337Z, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dynamics: The ballistic threat identified in the previous sitrep has materialized with a confirmed strike in the Slobidskyi district. Low wind and clearing skies (44% vs. 58% previously) provide optimal conditions for VKS damage assessment and follow-on strikes.
2. Eastern Sector (Svatove/Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Environment: Pokrovsk at -4.3°C, wind 1.4 m/s; Svatove at -6.5°C, wind 2.6 m/s.
Dynamics: Winds in Pokrovsk have dropped significantly from the 7 m/s reported in the 24h context, now sitting at 1.4 m/s. This has likely allowed the expansion of KAB strikes into the Donetsk sector (0330Z). However, 100% precipitation probability for the coming hours remains a limiting factor for sustained mechanized pushes.
Dynamics: This sector is currently under multi-axis pressure from both OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) and KABs. The 0323Z report of drones entering from the south/east suggests a coordinated attempt to saturate air defenses (AD) ahead of or alongside tactical aviation strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Integrated Strike): The VKS is currently executing an integrated strike pattern using a mix of ballistic missiles (Kharkiv), KABs (Dnipro/Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia), and Shahed-type UAVs (Zaporizhzhia). This suggests an effort to fix Ukrainian AD assets in the south and north while potentially preparing for localized ground operations in the Donetsk sector.
Tactical Shift: The expansion of KAB strikes to Dnipropetrovsk indicates a deepening of the strike zone, likely targeting logistics or staging areas for UAF reserves.
Logistics & Stability: Continued domestic arrests for minor financial support to opposition groups suggest the Kremlin is prioritizing internal "rear area" security to prevent any domestic friction during the current offensive window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): AD units are actively engaged in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Interception efforts are underway for both ballistic and low-slow OWA-UAV targets.
Deep Strikes: Continued UAV pressure on Crimea (Sevastopol) demonstrates UAF’s capability to bypass layered AD, forcing Russian assets to remain in a defensive posture in the rear.
Information environment / disinformation
Anti-Corruption Narrative: TASS (0316Z) is promoting a narrative that the FBI and US DOJ "curated" Ukrainian anti-corruption bodies (NABU/SAP) in the Energoatom case. This is likely a strategic information operation (IO) intended to portray Ukrainian institutions as foreign-controlled puppets and delegitimize domestic anti-corruption efforts.
Economic Warfare: Reports regarding the EU's 20th sanctions package and the potential for "intercepting tankers" are being used by Russian state media to signal potential escalations in the maritime domain and stoke division within the EU.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued saturation of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro with Shaheds and KABs to disrupt the flow of supplies to the Donetsk front. Ground forces near Pokrovsk/Dobropillya will likely attempt mechanized probes as soon as the current KAB sorties conclude, taking advantage of the temporarily low winds.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary ballistic or cruise missile wave targeting power substations in Kharkiv or Dnipro during the sub-zero temperatures, aiming to induce a local humanitarian/grid failure while AD is depleted by KAB/UAV intercepts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Assess the damage to the Slobidskyi district (Kharkiv) to determine if the target was industrial, energy-related, or a military staging point.
[OPERATIONAL] Determine if the Shaheds over Zaporizhzhia are acting as decoys/AD-sponges for a larger tactical aviation strike or are the primary kinetic effort.
[LOGISTICAL] Monitor for any shift in Russian naval activity in the Black Sea following the Sevastopol incident, specifically regarding "Kalibr" carriers.
