Confirmed Strike on Pskov Oil Infrastructure: A UAV strike on an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Pskov Oblast, has resulted in a confirmed fire at a fuel reservoir (ТАСС, 2225Z; ASTRA, 2246Z; HIGH).
Crimean Ballistic Launch Activity: AFU Air Force reported a ballistic missile threat following launches from occupied Crimea, triggering widespread alerts in central, southern, and northern Ukraine; all-clear was issued approximately 10 minutes later (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 2228Z/2236Z; HIGH).
Escalation of Carlson/Israel Narrative: Tucker Carlson claims he was subjected to a "wild" interrogation by Israeli officials upon departure, following his interview with US Ambassador Mike Huckabee (ТАСС, 2245Z; MEDIUM).
Russian Domestic Legal Shifts: Legislation proposed in the State Duma to equate criminal liability for attacks on doctors with those against police officers, suggesting increased domestic strain or civil instability (ТАСС, 2236Z; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Tactical: Ground remains frozen, facilitating heavy vehicle movement but complicating entrenchment.
Environmental: Temperature is -2.8°C with active snow (code 73). Wind speeds of 5.9 m/s and 100% cloud cover continue to degrade optical ISR and FPV operations.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Svatove):
Tactical: Pokrovsk continues to face localized C2 challenges due to infrastructure outages, mitigated by improvised mesh networks.
Environmental:Svatove remains at -1.8°C with light freezing rain (code 66), maintaining critical icing conditions for UAVs. Pokrovsk is at 0.7°C with light rain (code 61), ensuring "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions that favor defensive posture over armored offensive.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical: High alert status following the 2226Z ballistic launch from Crimea. No immediate impact reported in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson urban centers.
Environmental:Orikhiv reports the highest frontline winds at 7.1 m/s under 100% cloud cover, severely limiting quadcopter stability. Kherson is at -2.6°C with light snow (code 71).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Kinetic): The brief ballistic launch from Crimea indicates the VSRF (Russian Armed Forces) maintains a "hair-trigger" readiness for stand-off strikes, likely intended to probe AFU air defense response times or conduct psychological harassment following the Pskov strike.
Course of Action (Technical): Russian state-aligned channels (Colonelcassad) are highlighting breakthroughs in long-range laser energy transfer (citing DARPA 2025 data), possibly to mask Russian deficiencies in drone endurance or to signal upcoming investments in EW/directed energy (2231Z).
Logistics/Rear: The successful hit on the Velikiye Luki oil depot (over 400km from the border) confirms a vulnerability in the Russian Northern/Belarusian logistics corridor that Russian Air Defense has failed to close.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Efficacy: Long-range UAV units have successfully transitioned from "harassment" to "damage-inflicting" strikes in the Russian deep rear (Pskov), despite the difficult winter weather conditions.
Air Defense Readiness: The rapid identification and notification of ballistic launches from Crimea (within 1 minute of detection) demonstrate high C2 integration between ELINT and public warning systems.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Israel Interrogation": Russian media is aggressively amplifying Tucker Carlson’s claims of Israeli "interrogation." This is likely aimed at portraying the current US-Israel-Ukraine diplomatic axis as paranoid and authoritarian to Western audiences.
Technological Narrative: Pro-Russian milbloggers are using historical DARPA achievements to frame the future of warfare in terms of "unlimited flight endurance," possibly to lower Ukrainian morale regarding the long-term sustainability of the drone war.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Following the ballistic "flare-up" from Crimea, expect continued small-group probing attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. The mud in the Donbas will likely keep Russian heavy armor restricted to established roads.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed ballistic or "Kalibr" strike launched from the Black Sea/Crimea in the early morning hours, specifically targeting AFU energy or logistical nodes in response to the Pskov oil depot fire.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE] Confirm whether the Velikiye Luki fire has spread to adjacent reservoirs or if it was contained to a single tank.
[SITUATIONAL] Determine the specific type of ballistic missile launched from Crimea at 2226Z (Iskander-M vs. KN-23) to assess stockpile depletion levels.
[LOGISTICS] Monitor for retaliatory movement of Russian AD units from the interior toward the Pskov/Leningrad military districts.
