Geneva Negotiations Terminated: The Russian delegation has officially returned from Geneva to Moscow, signaling a hard stop or significant pause in direct diplomatic negotiations (2154Z, TASS, HIGH).
UAF Deep Strike (Pskov): Ukrainian UAVs have successfully attacked infrastructure in Velikiye Luki, Pskov Oblast. This confirms sustained deep-strike capabilities targeting Russian logistics/infrastructure over 400km from the border (2207Z, TASS, HIGH).
Pokrovsk C2 Restoration: The 68th Brigade (Dovbush Hornets) is deploying improvised Wi-Fi communication bridges in Pokrovsk to circumvent ongoing internet outages and maintain tactical C2 (2157Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
Trump Briefed on Geneva: U.S. negotiators (Witkoff/Kushner) have provided an updated briefing to Donald Trump regarding the status of the "Peace Council" and Geneva discussions (2213Z, TASS/Axios, MEDIUM).
Russian Economic Signaling: Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF) claims a potential $14 trillion portfolio of joint projects is contingent on the removal of sanctions, likely a targeted narrative aimed at the incoming U.S. administration (2149Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Internal Ukrainian Corruption Allegation: Acting Head of the State Ecological Inspectorate, Subbotenko, is under scrutiny for a $653,000 cash declaration allegedly found in a garage; this provides fodder for Russian "failed state" narratives (2150Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Tactical: Static lines persist, but environmental conditions are deteriorating.
Environmental: Temperature -3.0°C with active snow (code 73). Wind speeds of 5.8 m/s and 100% cloud cover continue to degrade standard ISR and FPV drone effectiveness.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Svatove):
Tactical: Critical communication vulnerabilities in Pokrovsk are being mitigated by technical units using localized Wi-Fi bridges. This suggests Russian EW or infrastructure strikes have successfully degraded the commercial/Starlink grid in this sector.
Environmental:Svatove is under light freezing rain (-1.9°C, code 66), creating a high-risk icing environment for all aerial platforms. Pokrovsk is at 0.7°C with light rain (code 61), resulting in "Rasputitsa-lite" conditions—muddy surfaces that impede heavy armor but aren't yet frozen solid.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical: No significant kinetic updates.
Environmental:Orikhiv remains the windiest sector (7.6 m/s), which, combined with 100% cloud cover, favors Russian "Molniya-2" fixed-wing drones over UAF quadcopters. Kherson is experiencing light snow (-1.9°C).
4. Russian Rear (Pskov/Deep Strike):
The strike on Velikiye Luki indicates a shift in UAF targeting toward the northern logistics corridor, potentially disrupting supplies moving toward the Belarusian border or the Northern Front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Diplomatic/Political: The return of the Russian delegation from Geneva suggests the Kremlin has calculated that further talks are currently unproductive, likely pivoting back to a "kinetic solution" to improve their bargaining position before the next "Peace Council" session.
Domestic Control: The Russian General Prosecutor’s move to seize "Sirena-Travel" (Leonardo booking system) assets (2217Z) indicates a deepening of the "war economy," where the state is nationalizing critical digital infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted mobilization and movement control.
Strategic Influence: Russian media is heavily amplifying Kirill Dmitriev’s "$14 Trillion" figure (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.50). This is a clear cognitive operation intended to split Western consensus by dangling massive economic incentives for sanctions relief.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 Resilience: Tactical units (68th Bde) are demonstrating high adaptability by building localized mesh networks (Wi-Fi bridges) in Pokrovsk. This is critical for maintaining fire control and coordination while the primary internet backbone is contested (2157Z).
Deep Strike Operations: Despite icing conditions, UAF long-range units are successfully penetrating Russian airspace as far north as Pskov, forcing Russia to keep AD assets in the deep rear.
Information environment / disinformation
"Economic Carrot" Narrative: The TASS/Dmitriev report is the primary Russian talking point, framing sanctions removal as a win-win for U.S. business interest rather than a concession to aggression.
Exploitation of Corruption: Russian channels (Colonelcassad/Z-Ops) are expected to amplify the Subbotenko garage cash story (2150Z) to undermine Western confidence in Ukrainian institutional integrity.
Unconfirmed Diplomatic Pressure: Reports of Israel questioning Tucker Carlson about U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee (2201Z, LOW) suggest Russian attempts to track and influence back-channel communications between the U.S., Israel, and Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Following the Geneva exit, expect a localized intensification of Russian artillery and small-unit "meat" assaults in the Pokrovsk salient to exploit the current comms instability and icing-related drone grounding.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A large-scale retaliatory missile strike on Ukrainian energy or C2 nodes in response to the Velikiye Luki (Pskov) attack, potentially synchronized with the UVB-76 "Buzzer" signal activity noted in the previous sitrep.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm if the Pokrovsk internet outage is due to Russian physical strikes on fiber-optic nodes or a localized EW "blackout" event.
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Obtain satellite or ELINT confirmation of the damage scale at the Velikiye Luki infrastructure site.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor Russian military transport movement from Geneva/Moscow to see if the returning delegation's collapse leads to an immediate change in the "Special Military Operation" command posture.
