Major HVT Strike: Ukrainian General Staff confirmed a successful strike on a Russian S-300VM surface-to-air missile launcher, multiple UAV control points, and personnel concentrations. (1628Z, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, HIGH).
Repelled Assault (Zaporizhzhia): UAF 33rd and 1st Separate Assault Regiments successfully halted a Russian mechanized breakthrough attempt near Dobropillya. Video evidence shows the destruction of armored vehicles and personnel. (1621Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
Special Operations Raid: UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) "Rangers" conducted a successful direct-action raid on a Russian frontline position, results currently being assessed for tactical intelligence. (1630Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
Correction on Rear Area Incident: New reports suggest the collapse of the Russian commandant’s office in Leningrad Oblast was caused by excessive snow load on the roof rather than an explosion, contradicting earlier sabotage claims. (1625Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
Northern Air Threat: Russian UAVs (Shahed/Geran) detected over Chernihiv Oblast, moving on an azimuth toward Baturyn and Koryukivka. (1622Z, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH).
Sustained Rear Attrition: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported 15 separate attacks involving FPV drones, tube artillery, and aerial bombs across two districts, resulting in one civilian fatality. (1630Z, Олександр Ганжа, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Air Domain: Active penetration of UAVs into Chernihiv airspace indicates a continued Russian effort to map air defense gaps or strike critical infrastructure in the northern corridor.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk remains at -5.6°C with light snow and 100% cloud cover. These conditions continue to limit optical ISR while supporting ground mobility for tracked assets due to frozen soil.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Environmental Hazard: Temperature in Pokrovsk is 0.5°C with light freezing rain. This is the highest operational priority; icing will continue to ground FPV fleets and degrade the performance of Western-supplied optical sensors.
Attrition: Russian forces are maintaining pressure with artillery and drone strikes, exploiting the weather-induced reduction in Ukrainian aerial counter-measures.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Tactical Contestation: Following the reported loss of Krynichne (refer to 1618Z Sitrep), the repelled assault at Dobropillya indicates the 127th Division is attempting to exploit its recent gains by pushing further west/northwest. The use of vehicle-mounted assaults suggests Russian commanders believe the terrain is currently passable for armor despite the 2.3°C temperature and light rain.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities: The presence of S-300VM systems (prior to strike) indicates a high-density Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) protecting Russian logistics hubs. The loss of a launcher will create localized "bubbles" for Ukrainian aviation or long-range UAVs to exploit.
Course of Action: Russia is utilizing a "weather-as-a-mask" strategy. Dense drizzle in Kherson (0.2°C) and freezing rain in Pokrovsk are being used to move tactical reserves closer to the line of contact with reduced fear of FPV interdiction.
Logistics: Continuous strikes on UAV control centers suggest a Russian shift toward centralized drone command to better coordinate massed "Shahed" strikes and tactical FPV sorties.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Strike Success: The destruction of an S-300VM system demonstrates high-level coordination between SIGINT/ELINT and long-range fires (likely HIMARS or Storm Shadow/SCALP).
Defensive Resilience: The 33rd and 1st Assault Regiments demonstrated high readiness in the Zaporizhzhia sector, utilizing UAV reconnaissance to disrupt Russian mechanized columns before they could reach the main defensive line.
Special Operations: SSO raids are likely targeting Russian C2 (Command and Control) nodes to further destabilize Russian offensive coordination during the current weather window.
Information environment / disinformation
Accident vs. Sabotage: The shift in narrative regarding the Leningrad building collapse (from explosion to snow load) may be a Russian attempt to minimize the appearance of Ukrainian reach or internal insecurity. (1625Z).
Demographic Pivot: Russian state media is highlighting domestic healthcare investment and demographics (686B rubles) to project long-term stability and distract from front-line attrition. (1632Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will continue localized "probing" vehicle assaults in the Dobropillya/Huliaipole sector to find gaps in the UAF line created during the recent tactical shifts.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A massed UAV/missile strike (supported by the animations seen at 1621Z) synchronized with the grounding of UAF drones due to freezing rain in the Pokrovsk sector, potentially leading to a localized breakthrough.
Environmental Warning: Extreme icing in the Pokrovsk-Donetsk corridor will reach peak severity by 190000Z FEB 26. All units must prioritize chemical de-icing of optical glass and rotor blades.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Obtain satellite imagery or partisan confirmation of the S-300VM strike site to confirm total destruction vs. repairable damage.
[TACTICAL SIGINT] Monitor for changes in Russian radio discipline following the SSO raid; identify if high-ranking commanders were neutralized.
[LOGISTICS] Monitor the impact of the 15 strikes in Dnipropetrovsk on the M-04/M-18 supply routes (Class V throughput).
