Claimed Russian Advance (Huliaipole): Russian Vostok Grouping claims the capture of Krynichne (Zaporizhzhia sector) by the 127th Division. (1601Z, Воин DV, LOW).
Kupyansk Clearing Success: The UAF 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade documented successful infantry assaults and building clearing in Kupyansk, confirming continued tactical control over disputed urban blocks. (1549Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
Logistical Interdiction: UAF 422nd Separate Drone Company ("LUFTWAFFE") conducted a high-impact FPV strike on Russian personnel disembarking from a UAZ "Bukhanka" transport, emphasizing the continued vulnerability of Russian tactical logistics. (1549Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
Energy Blackmail: Reports indicate Hungary and Slovakia have halted fuel and electricity exports to Ukraine, citing retaliation for Ukrainian actions regarding the Druzhba oil pipeline. (1551Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM).
Strategic Economic Shift: India has reportedly reduced Russian oil imports to 1.1 million bpd (lowest since Nov 2022), allegedly linked to new diplomatic pressures. (1552Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
Critical Road Maintenance: Dnipropetrovsk authorities have deployed over 200 specialized vehicles to combat severe icing on primary supply routes; 300+ units planned for overnight operations. (1600Z, Олександр Ганжа, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Kupyansk):
Tactical Clearing: UAF 41st Bde continues to eliminate Russian reconnaissance-in-force elements within Kupyansk. Video evidence shows high-intensity close-quarters battle (CQB).
Weather: Current temperature -5.6°C with light snow. Frozen ground supports tracked movement, but 100% cloud cover continues to impede high-altitude ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Environmental Hazard: Freezing rain (0.4°C, 0.2mm precip) is the primary operational constraint. This creates extreme icing conditions for UAV rotors and degrades optical sensors.
Logistics: Roadways in the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk transit corridor require constant chemical treatment to remain passable for wheeled logistics (Class III/V).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Russian Offensive Push: The reported capture of Krynichne suggests a Russian attempt to expand the frontline east of Huliaipole. This follows the previously noted "Shaman" drone activity, indicating a coordinated effort to seize tactical heights.
Drone Innovation: Reports indicate UAF units are experimenting with heavy-lift drones capable of deploying 8kg anti-tank mines, likely a response to increased Russian mechanized pressure in the mud-limited sectors. (1611Z, Шеф Hayabusa).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russian forces are exploiting current visibility-limiting weather (dense drizzle/freezing rain) to move personnel in soft-skinned vehicles ("Bukhankas") closer to the FEBA.
Capabilities: The Vostok Grouping (127th Div) demonstrates renewed offensive capability in the Huliaipole sector, likely aiming to fix Ukrainian reserves away from the Pokrovsk/Kostyantynivka axis.
Logistics: Attrition of Russian tactical transport remains high due to UAF FPV strikes, but the use of unarmored vans suggests a high tolerance for personnel losses to maintain momentum.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a "defense-in-depth" while utilizing specialized drone units (422nd Co) to offset manpower shortages.
Rear Area Resilience: Massive anti-icing operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are critical for maintaining the flow of Western munitions and fuel from the western border to the Donbas front.
Diplomatic Engagement: Reports of a separate, direct UA-RU meeting during the Geneva negotiations suggest a channel for tactical de-escalation or prisoner exchanges remains open, despite the overall failure of the primary talks. (1606Z, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Narrative: Russian-aligned channels are heavily promoting the "retribution" narrative regarding Hungarian/Slovakian fuel cuts to demoralize the Ukrainian civilian population during the freeze. (1551Z).
Internal Discord: High-ranking Russian officials (Medvedev) and Telegram channels (Operatsiya Z) are amplifying claims of a Zelensky-Zaluzhny rift and AFU "offensive incapacity" to fracture domestic Ukrainian morale and international support. (1602Z, 1603Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Russian pressure on the Huliaipole-Krynichne axis. The freezing rain in the Pokrovsk/Donetsk sector will likely ground 70-80% of tactical FPV drones, providing a window for Russian mechanized infantry to attempt localized breakthroughs.
Decision Point: If anti-icing efforts in Dnipropetrovsk fail to keep highways open overnight, UAF supply lines to the Eastern Front will reach a "critical" status by 190400Z FEB 26.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HUMINT/IMINT] Confirm the current status of Krynichne (Zaporizhzhia); determine if UAF has established a new defensive line west of the settlement.
[LOGISTICS] Verify the scale of fuel/power export halts from Hungary and Slovakia; assess the impact on UAF fuel reserves (Class III) over a 72-hour window.
[SIGINT] Monitor Russian Vostok Grouping communications for indicators of a larger follow-on push toward Huliaipole.
