Tactical Evolution: Geran Relay Drones: Russian forces are reportedly using "Geran" (Shahed-type) UAVs as motherships/relays to extend the operational range of FPV drones. This allows FPV strikes to reach targets deep in the Ukrainian tactical rear (0659Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Aviation Surge (KABs): High-intensity strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported across Northern Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors (0649Z, 0650Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
Diplomatic Friction: "Druzhba" Pipeline: Reports indicate the EU is pressuring Kyiv to provide a repair schedule for the "Druzhba" oil pipeline to restore Russian oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia (0705Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
Geneva Negotiations (Day 2): Trilateral talks have moved to closed-door sessions at the InterContinental Geneva. While US envoys claim "significant progress," Russian negotiators are reportedly maintaining an uncompromising stance on NATO expansion (0648Z, 0703Z, 0716Z, TASS/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Claimed Territorial Gain: Russian sources claim the capture of Kharkivka in Sumy Oblast. (0705Z, Operatsiya Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Internal Sabotage/Security: The FSB claims to have arrested an 18-year-old in Chelyabinsk allegedly directed by Ukrainian intelligence to assassinate a high-ranking Russian official (0714Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kupiansk):
Current Conditions: -8.9°C, 97% cloud cover, light snow. Ground remains frozen, supporting heavy vehicle movement.
Activity: UAF 41st Mechanized Brigade is conducting clearing operations in the Kupiansk private sector, confirming localized tactical successes (0711Z, Operativnyi ZSU). Russian tactical aviation is heavily targeting northern Kharkiv with KABs.
IPB Assessment: Heavy snow forecast (6.6mm) will likely degrade visual ISR and manual FPV operations over the next 12h.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: -1.8°C, overcast, 100% cloud cover.
Activity: Sustained Russian KAB strikes reported. Russian forces are testing automated smoke-screen robots in training, indicating an intent to use robotic obscurants in upcoming assaults (0711Z, Mash na Donbasse).
IPB Assessment: High winds (up to 7.7 m/s) and snow grains will complicate drone stabilization and rotary-wing aviation.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: 0.3°C to -0.5°C, overcast.
Activity: Routine monitoring; no significant change in ground disposition since 0600Z.
IPB Assessment: Near-freezing temperatures continue to pose an icing risk for low-altitude loitering munitions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Pressure: Russia is synchronizing high-intensity KAB strikes with the second day of Geneva talks to maximize leverage.
Technological Adaptation: The deployment of FPV-relay "Gerans" is a critical threat. This capability bypasses traditional electronic warfare (EW) bubbles that rely on the short signal range of standard FPV controllers.
Logistics Modernization: Modernized fuel tankers and robotic smoke-delivery systems observed in the "Vostok" group area suggest a focus on improving the survivability of mechanized supply lines (0656Z, 0705Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Frontline Integrity: 41st Bde continues effective urban clearing in Kupiansk. The 47th Bde "Magura" is focusing on logistical resilience, deploying professional-grade mobile kitchens ("Dragobrat") to maintain troop morale in extreme cold (0710Z).
Internal Accountability: The Office of the Prosecutor General has uncovered a major procurement fraud involving 154.8 million UAH for substandard ballistic goggles, demonstrating ongoing internal "cleansing" of the defense supply chain (0717Z).
Morale: National minute of silence observed at 0900L (0700Z) across all sectors to maintain psychological cohesion (0658Z-0700Z, Various).
Information environment / disinformation
Support Erosion: Russian-aligned channels are amplifying Norwegian public polling showing 42% of Norwegians view aid as "too expensive," aiming to frame Western support as unsustainable (0652Z, Rybar).
NATO Escalation Narrative: Estonia’s statement regarding the potential placement of NATO nuclear weapons is being weaponized by Russian state media to justify their "unacceptable" demands in Geneva (0717Z, Colonelcassad).
Internal Unrest Narrative: Russian claims that a UAF brigade sabotaged a bridge in Dnipropetrovsk to avoid combat is assessed as a HIGH-PROBABILITY DISINFORMATION operation intended to project a narrative of collapsing Ukrainian morale (UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Increased use of KAB strikes and the "Geran" relay-FPV tactic to disrupt UAF rotations in the Kupiansk and Pokrovsk sectors before the heavy snow sets in.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A mechanized breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast, leveraging the claimed capture of Kharkivka to bypass established defensive lines while weather grounds UAF visual reconnaissance drones.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the status of Kharkivka (Sumy Oblast). Aerial or signal verification required to counter Russian "liberation" claims.
[TECH] Identify the signal frequencies used by the "Geran" FPV relays. Counter-UAS units need this data to update EW jammer profiles.
[STRATEGIC] Assess the impact of EU pressure regarding the "Druzhba" pipeline on the Ukrainian negotiating position in Geneva.
[BATTLE DAMAGE] Monitor the impact of the KAB strikes in Northern Kharkiv, specifically focusing on bridgehead infrastructure and C2 nodes.
