Massive Russian Aerial Attack: Russian forces launched 127 aerial assets overnight, including 126 drones and 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile. Ukrainian Air Defense (UAF) reported 100 UAVs shot down or suppressed; the Iskander-M was not intercepted (0631Z, Air Force UAF; 0634Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Minkivka Defense Confirmed: The Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade has released video evidence refuting Russian claims of the capture of Minkivka (Donetsk Oblast), confirming the settlement remains under UAF control (0623Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Geneva Negotiations Resume: A second round of trilateral talks is scheduled for the first half of Feb 18. US Envoy Witkoff reported "substantial progress" following Day 1 (0634Z, TASS; 0641Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Tactical Aviation Warning: UAF Air Force reports active Russian tactical aviation on southern and north-eastern axes as of 0643Z (0643Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
Strategic Disinformation: Russian milbloggers are propagating claims that NATO pilots are now operating F-16 and Mirage aircraft in the theater (0629Z, Fighterbomber, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Russian Technological Test: Russian forces have reportedly begun testing stratospheric internet transmitters for use in the "Special Military Operation" (SMO) zone to improve communication resilience (0635Z, Diary of a Paratrooper, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk/Chernihiv):
Current Conditions: -9.2°C, 100% cloud cover, light snow.
Activity: Kharkiv city and 12 regional settlements sustained strikes over the last 24 hours (0645Z, Kharkiv ODA). A Russian UAV was detected over northern Chernihiv at 0645Z, tracking southwest (0645Z, Air Force UAF).
IPB Assessment: Extreme cold (-11.0°C min forecast) maintains the hard freeze, but 100% cloud cover continues to degrade optical ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Svatove/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions:
Svatove: -6.3°C, active snow.
Pokrovsk: -2.0°C, snow grains, wind 5.9 m/s.
Activity: UAF 30th Brigade is actively conducting defensive operations in Minkivka. The use of video refutation suggests a high-intensity information battle over this specific tactical node.
IPB Assessment: Snow accumulation in Svatove (0.5mm) and high winds in Pokrovsk will further complicate FPV drone stabilization.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: 0.2°C to -0.5°C, overcast with snow grains.
Activity: Heightened Russian tactical aviation activity reported on the southern axis (0643Z).
IPB Assessment: Near-freezing temperatures may lead to icing on drone rotors and aircraft wings, specifically affecting low-altitude loitering munitions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The pivot from overnight drone swarms to morning tactical aviation sorties suggests a coordinated effort to suppress UAF defenses while negotiators meet in Geneva.
Targeting Trends: Reports indicate Russian Kh-22 launches from Tu-22M3 bombers near Bryansk targeted Kyiv’s thermal power plants (TETs-5, TETs-6) (0625Z, ASTRA). This confirms a continued focus on energy infrastructure despite diplomatic "progress."
Internal Security: FSB activity in Chelyabinsk (0647Z) indicates the Kremlin remains hyper-vigilant regarding domestic sabotage, possibly tied to the increased UAF long-range drone reach reported in previous cycles.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Efficacy: Intercepting 100/126 drones (approx. 79%) demonstrates high readiness despite the diversity of the attack (ballistic + UAV). However, the 14 confirmed impact locations (0634Z) require damage assessment, particularly in energy and logistics sectors.
Counter-Information Ops: The immediate use of combat footage by the 30th Brigade to debunk Russian territorial claims shows improved synchronization between frontline units and strategic communications.
Information environment / disinformation
"NATO Pilot" Narrative: The claim of NATO pilots (0629Z) is a classic Russian hybrid tactic used to explain UAF successes to a domestic audience and to build a "Western escalation" justification for future Russian strikes.
Diplomatic Posturing: While US sources report "progress," Russian state media focuses on Iranian calls for nuclear disarmament (0631Z) and Polish "historical claims" (0645Z), likely to distract from the core territorial issues being discussed in Geneva.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued tactical aviation strikes on UAF rear logistics and energy nodes to maintain pressure during the Geneva session. A likely focus on the Kharkiv and southern sectors based on current aviation alerts.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A high-speed mechanized thrust in the Minkivka/Donetsk sector, leveraging the ground freeze and the Russian "NATO pilots" disinformation to justify an escalatory ground offensive.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE] Identify the 14 impact locations from the overnight drone/missile attack; specifically, assess the status of Kyiv TETs-5 and TETs-6.
[TECH] Obtain technical specifications/frequency ranges for the "stratospheric internet transmitters" being tested by Russia to develop EW countermeasures.
[TACTICAL] Confirm if the Iskander-M strike hit a high-value C2 or logistics target, given its successful penetration of the AD umbrella.
