Southern Front Engagement: Russian sources claim to have "localized" a UAF landing (desant) near Stepnohirsk and Prymorske; Russian forces reportedly seized Prymorske and Mahdalynivka, though heavy fighting and UAF drone-supported counterattacks continue (0329Z, Two Majors, MEDIUM).
Russian Rear Strike (Deep): Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Cheboksary, Chuvashia (~700km from the Ukrainian border), suggesting a potential deep-rear OWA UAV strike (0326Z, ASTRA, LOW).
Southern UAV Strike: Russian OWA UAVs targeted residential sectors in Mykolaiv, resulting in damage to private housing (0342Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
Bryansk All-Clear: Missile and UAV alerts in Bryansk Oblast have been lifted following earlier high-intensity activity (0325Z-0326Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH).
Defense Procurement Setback: President Zelensky reportedly stated that the US has denied Ukraine's request for localized Patriot missile production in Europe (0341Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Sanctions Enforcement: Sweden has arrested a Russian national on a US warrant for sanctions violations, pending extradition (0323Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Bryansk):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk at -10.3°C, 100% cloud cover. Ground is frozen (Code 3), providing high soil trafficability for heavy armor.
Air Defense: The lifting of alerts in Bryansk (0325Z) indicates a reset in the air domain over the Russian border regions following earlier UAF reach-back operations.
IPB Assessment: Stable front lines; the primary threat remains tactical aviation and potential diversionary cross-border raids facilitated by frozen ground.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Svatove/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: Svatove (-6.5°C) and Pokrovsk (-2.5°C) are experiencing active snow/snow grains (Code 73/77) with 100% cloud cover.
IPB Assessment: Persistent snowfall (0.3mm current, up to 13.9mm forecast) is significantly degrading UAF FPV drone operations and visual ISR. This creates a "visibility gap" that Russian mechanized units are likely to exploit for localized breakthroughs in the Pokrovsk salient.
Current Conditions: Temperatures near freezing (-0.4°C to -0.7°C). Cloud cover 100%.
Active Engagement: Significant Russian offensive activity is reported near the Kakhovka Reservoir axis. Russian claims of "liberating" Prymorske and Mahdalynivka suggest an attempt to push the line of contact further north toward Stepnohirsk.
UAF Counter-Tactics: Despite Russian claims of "localization," the heavy use of UAF UAVs in this sector (per Russian sources) indicates that UAF is maintaining a high-density "drone shield" to blunt Russian mechanized advances in the Orikhiv-Stepnohirsk corridor.
Mykolaiv Strike: The OWA UAV strike (0342Z) confirms the continued Russian focus on degrading logistical hubs and civilian morale in the rear of the Southern grouping.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & UAVs: Russia continues to utilize OWA UAVs against southern urban centers (Mykolaiv) while employing tactical aviation (KABs) on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Zaporizhzhia Offensive: The transition from standoff strikes to clearing operations in Prymorske indicates a prioritized Russian effort to eliminate UAF bridgeheads or forward observation posts near the reservoir.
Electronic Warfare (EW): The integration of "Max" messenger with Russian state services (Gosuslugi) (0329Z) indicates a continued push for domestic digital control and mobilization readiness.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Maneuver: Reports of a UAF "desant" (landing) near Stepnohirsk (0329Z) suggest UAF is attempting to disrupt Russian coastal flanks along the Dnieper/Reservoir, likely to force a Russian redeployment away from the main Pokrovsk/Donbas axes.
Strategic Reach: The reported explosions in Cheboksary (0326Z), if confirmed as a UAF strike, demonstrate an evolving capability to strike critical Russian industrial or logistical infrastructure at extreme ranges (700km+), potentially targeting Chuvashia’s industrial base.
Information environment / disinformation
Patriot Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing reports of US refusals to allow European Patriot production (0341Z) to amplify a narrative of "Western fatigue" and logistical abandonment.
Morale Operations: Russian paratrooper-associated channels (0331Z) are maintaining high-tempo "soft" engagement (quizzes/mural identification) to maintain domestic morale and unit cohesion during high-attrition winter operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue clearing operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Prymorske/Mahdalynivka) while the Donbas front remains in a high-intensity "drone-blind" state due to ongoing snow. Expect continued OWA UAV launches against southern logistical hubs (Mykolaiv/Odesa).
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A large-scale Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis, timing the peak of the snowstorm (forecasted 100% precip probability) to bypass UAF ATGM and FPV drone defenses.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Corroborate Russian claims of the fall of Prymorske and Mahdalynivka; identify the current line of contact (LOC) near Stepnohirsk.
[STRATEGIC] Verify the nature of the "explosions" in Cheboksary (0326Z). If kinetic, identify the target (e.g., energy, manufacturing, or C2).
[LOGISTICS] Assess the impact of the Mykolaiv UAV strikes on Southern Command's supply chain and port infrastructure.
