Tactical Aviation Strikes (Zaporizhzhia): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0306Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Northern UAV Intrusion: Russian One-Way Attack (OWA) UAVs (Shaheds) detected in Chernihiv Oblast (Koryukivka and Snovsk districts), maneuvering south/west (0300Z-0301Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Russian Interior Alert (Bryansk): Missile danger and siren activation reported in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, indicating potential UAF counter-strike or high-intensity Russian Air Defense activity (0308Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM).
International Information Operations: Russian state media is highlighting reports that Russian/Belarusian athletes may compete under national flags at the 2026 Paralympics, leveraging this for domestic morale (0252Z, RV, MEDIUM).
Geopolitical Friction: Escalating rhetoric between the US and China regarding alleged nuclear testing; Russia (via TASS) is amplifying Chinese denials to frame the US as undermining disarmament (0252Z, TASS, LOW/Contextual).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk at -11.1°C, 99% cloud cover. Ground remains frozen, supporting heavy vehicle maneuver.
UAV Activity: Intrusion into Chernihiv airspace (0300Z) suggests a multi-axis attempt to penetrate Ukrainian AD, possibly targeting logistics hubs or power infrastructure in the rear.
IPB Assessment: The frozen ground facilitates mechanized movement, but the arrival of light snow (8.3mm forecast) may begin to degrade optical ISR by daybreak.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Svatove/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: Svatove (-6.5°C) and Pokrovsk (-2.6°C) are under 100% cloud cover with active snow/snow grains.
IPB Assessment: Persistent snow (forecasted 9.3mm to 16.1mm) is significantly degrading the "drone shield." The 100% cloud cover provides optimal conditions for Russian mechanized units to reposition without fear of FPV or thermal-equipped UAV observation.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Temperature near freezing (-0.5°C to -0.6°C) with 100% cloud cover.
Active Engagement: Following the lifting of city-wide alerts (0240Z), Russian tactical aviation has commenced KAB strikes (0306Z). This confirms the assessment that the "missile danger" previously noted was a precursor to standoff aerial bombardment.
IPB Assessment: The threat of light freezing rain (6.4mm forecast) remains critical. Any accumulation will paralyze paved-surface logistics and degrade the effectiveness of UAF mobile AD groups relying on truck-mounted platforms.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Adaptations: The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia suggests the Russian VKS is exploiting gaps in medium-range AD or taking advantage of the overcast conditions to mask launch platforms.
UAV Maneuver: The southern and western headings of UAVs in Chernihiv (0301Z) indicate a flanking maneuver, likely intended to bypass primary AD belts around Kyiv or target energy nodes.
Counter-ISR: Continued reliance on weather-window exploitation (snow/cloud) to shield movements in the Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Active tracking and engagement of OWA UAVs in the Northern sector.
Offensive Capability: The missile alert in Bryansk (0308Z) suggests UAF continues to demonstrate reach into the Russian rear, likely targeting launch sites or logistical nodes to relieve pressure on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Information environment / disinformation
Paralympic Narrative: The focus on the 2026 Paralympics is a calculated attempt to normalize Russian international standing despite the conflict, aimed at both domestic audiences and neutral international observers.
Sino-US Nuclear Tensions: Russian amplification of the US-China nuclear dispute (0252Z) serves to distract from the European theater and frame the US as a global destabilizer.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector targeting tactical depth. UAVs in the north will likely attempt to strike infrastructure targets in the early morning hours (0400Z-0600Z) when alertness is traditionally lowest.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Russian mechanized breakthrough in the Pokrovsk sector under the cover of the intensifying snowstorm, exploiting the grounded FPV drone fleet and degraded visibility for UAF anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Identify specific impact points of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia (0306Z) to determine if targeting is focused on UAF reserves or civilian infrastructure.
[ISR] Determine if the Bryansk missile alert (0308Z) resulted in successful kinetic impact on Russian military assets.
[WEATHER] Monitor freezing rain accumulation in the Southern sector; any level above 2mm will significantly degrade UAF logistical throughput and mobile AD response times.
