KAB Strikes (Sumy Oblast): UAF Air Force confirms the launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation against targets in Sumy Oblast (0116Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
UAV Incursion (Dnipropetrovsk): Russian UAVs detected near Synelnykove and Mezhova, indicating deep reconnaissance or harassment of logistics nodes (0053Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
UAV Vector (Sumy): A Russian UAV is currently tracking toward Putivl, Sumy Oblast (0055Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Intensified Hybrid/Info-Ops: Russian state media and milbloggers have launched a coordinated narrative push targeting Ukrainian leadership (corruption allegations) and alleging POW abuse in Kharkiv (0104Z-0117Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -11.3°C, overcast (87% cloud). Sumy/Putivl region is facing active KAB strikes.
IPB Assessment: The transition from UAV reconnaissance (noted in previous sitrep) to active KAB strikes in Sumy indicates a "find-and-strike" cycle. The cold (-11.3°C) ensures stable ground for any potential Russian tactical movements, though the high cloud cover primarily benefits the VKS in masking launch platforms.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: Pokrovsk is at -2.6°C with active snow (code 73). Cloud cover is 100%.
IPB Assessment: Snow accumulation (0.4mm currently, 9.3mm forecast) is degrading visual ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). This "weather masking" is likely being used to reposition Russian tactical reserves near the contact line without detection by Ukrainian FPV drone screens.
3. Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk):
Current Conditions: Overcast.
IPB Assessment: UAV activity near Synelnykove is significant. Synelnykove is a critical railway junction for Ukrainian logistics flowing into the Donbas. This suggests Russian intent to disrupt GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) deeper in the rear than typically observed with tactical FPVs.
4. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: -0.7°C with light freezing rain (code 66) in Orikhiv.
IPB Assessment: Freezing rain continues to degrade traction and ground tactical aviation. No significant change in disposition; operations remain "frozen" due to icing.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: The VKS remains highly active in the Sumy sector, utilizing stand-off KAB capabilities. This may be an attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in the North to prevent reinforcement of the Donbas during the forecast snowstorm.
UAV Probing: The vector toward Putivl and the presence in Dnipropetrovsk suggest a multi-layered UAV effort—using high-endurance fixed-wing assets (likely Molniya-2 or Orlan variants) to identify rear-echelon targets.
Logistics Harassment: The targeting of the Synelnykove/Mezhova corridor indicates a shift toward interdicting the flow of Western munitions and supplies moving toward the eastern front.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting multiple UAV vectors. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely restricted by the -11°C temperatures and low visibility in the North and East.
Logistics: Monitoring of rear-area rail hubs (Synelnykove) is prioritized following the detection of enemy UAVs in the vicinity.
Information environment / disinformation
Corruption Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily promoting statements by Miroshnik regarding NABU investigations and President Zelensky (0108Z, 0117Z). This is a clear attempt to erode Western trust during ongoing international discussions.
POW Disinformation: The "testimony" of Russian serviceman "31-y" regarding abuse in Kharkiv (0104Z) is likely a manufactured narrative intended to distract from Russian rear-area losses or to incite "reflexive control" among Russian domestic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will escalate KAB strikes in Sumy and Donetsk, exploiting 100% cloud cover. UAVs will continue to probe Dnipropetrovsk rail nodes.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A mechanized assault in the Pokrovsk sector initiated under the cover of the forecast heavy snow (9.3mm), aimed at bypassing UAF drone-heavy defensive belts while "drone-blindness" is at its peak.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Confirm if UAVs over Synelnykove are reconnaissance-only or "Shahed" variants intended for terminal strikes on rail infrastructure.
[TACTICAL] Monitor for Russian mechanized movement (BPM/BTR) in the Svatove-Kupiansk axis; current -6°C to -11°C temperatures have optimized the ground for heavy armor.
[HUMINT/SIGINT] Assess the validity of the "31-y" testimony to prepare counter-narratives for the international information space.
