Fixed-Wing UAV Strike (Sumy Oblast): Russian 34th Mountain Brigade ("Sever" Group) deployed "Molniya-2" fixed-wing strike drones against fortified positions; video evidence confirms operations in snowy terrain (0023Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
KAB Strikes (Donetsk): Ukrainian Air Force confirmed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting the Donetsk region (0025Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Multi-Vector UAV Incursions: New UAV activity detected over Kharkiv region (Staryi Saltiv, Lozova, Blyzniuky) and northern Chernihiv region (heading west) (0020Z-0026Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
C2 Innovation (RF): Russian state media reports testing of a "Starlink-analog" drone system intended to provide resilient communication/data links for UAV operations (0027Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Information Environment (RU): Russian military bloggers are circulating reports regarding the potential blocking of Telegram within the Russian Federation, suggesting internal friction or impending censorship shifts (0022Z, Operation Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -11.2°C, mainly clear. Ground remains frozen ("concrete"), favoring heavy mechanized movement.
IPB Assessment: The appearance of "Molniya-2" fixed-wing drones in Sumy suggests a shift toward higher-endurance strike platforms that can operate in colder, windier conditions where smaller FPVs might struggle. New UAV tracks over Staryi Saltiv and Lozova indicate reconnaissance-in-depth or harassment of GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: -2.7°C, light snow, 100% cloud cover.
IPB Assessment: Russian forces are exploiting 100% cloud cover to launch KAB strikes, likely utilizing GPS/GLONASS guidance to bypass degraded visual acquisition. Heavy snow forecast (9.3mm) will further degrade UAF visual observation, creating a high-risk window for Russian infantry infiltration.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: -0.7°C with light freezing rain.
IPB Assessment: Freezing rain (code 66) remains the primary operational constraint. Accumulating ice on UAV rotors and optical sensors is likely grounding tactical reconnaissance in the Orikhiv corridor. Traction on paved surfaces is severely degraded.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of the "Molniya-2" fixed-wing drone represents an evolution in the Russian tactical UAV fleet. Fixed-wing platforms typically offer higher speeds and better stability in wind compared to quadcopters, making them effective during the current winter storm fronts.
C2 Developments: The testing of a "Starlink-analog" drone indicates an urgent Russian requirement to solve the "command-and-control gap" in high-electronic warfare (EW) environments. If successful, this could allow Russian UAVs to operate beyond line-of-sight without relying on vulnerable ground relays.
Aerial Bombardment: Sustained KAB strikes in Donetsk suggest the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) maintains a high sortie rate despite the weather, likely operating from stand-off ranges to avoid UAF Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Continuous monitoring and tracking of multi-vector UAV threats across Kharkiv and Chernihiv. UAF Air Force is actively vectoring Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) to intercept western-heading drones in the northern corridor.
Counter-Electronic Warfare: The focus remains on identifying the control frequencies of new Russian assets like the Molniya-2.
Information environment / disinformation
Censorship Threats: Rumors of Telegram blocking in Russia (0022Z) may be a "reflexive control" measure to identify dissent within the milblogger community or a precursor to tighter operational security (OPSEC) measures ahead of a major offensive.
Sanctions Pressure: Potential EU sanctions against FIDE President Arkady Dvorkovich signal continued Western efforts to isolate high-profile Russian figures in international organizations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue KAB strikes in the Donetsk sector to soften defenses while the "drone-blindness" caused by snow persists. In the North, UAV activity will likely transition from reconnaissance to strike (Molniya-2) as targets are identified.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated mechanized push in the Kharkiv/Vovchansk sector. The ground is frozen, visibility is currently 32% cloud, but the window is closing as heavy snow (8.3mm) is forecasted for later in the day. The enemy may attempt to seize key terrain before the storm grounds their own CAS (Close Air Support).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Determine the electronic signature and frequency hopping capabilities of the "Molniya-2" to update EW jamming profiles.
[OPERATIONAL] Identify the testing grounds for the Russian "Starlink-analog" drone; specifically, whether these tests are occurring in occupied Ukraine or within the RF interior.
[LOGISTICS] Monitor the impact of freezing rain on the M-14/E-58 highway corridors in the south; determine if icing has halted Russian supply convoys from Crimea.
