Nationwide Ballistic Missile Alert (1118Z–1138Z): A comprehensive air defense alert was triggered across Ukraine due to a specific threat of "Oreshnik" ballistic missile launches from the Astrakhan region (1120Z, Tsaplienko/Operativny ZSU, HIGH). Threat subsided at 1138Z without confirmed impacts.
Strategic Strike on Tamanneftegaz (1134Z): SBU "Alpha" units successfully conducted a second strike on the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai, further degrading Russian fuel export and logistics infrastructure (1134Z, Operativny ZSU, MEDIUM).
FSB Telecommunications Control (1123Z): The Russian State Duma passed legislation mandating that telecommunications operators must disconnect services upon direct request from the FSB, indicating a move toward total information control during periods of instability or operations (1123Z, TASS, HIGH).
Casualties at Slovyansk TPP (1125Z): A Russian drone strike targeted a vehicle transporting employees of the Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant; three workers were killed and one was injured (1125Z, Operativny ZSU, HIGH).
Aviation Losses (Corroborated): Further confirmation provided regarding the destruction of a Russian Ka-27 naval helicopter in occupied Crimea during overnight operations (1139Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Alleged Personnel Loss (1121Z): Russian sources claim the liquidation of Major Dmytro Shynaev (UA Border Guard) near Kramatorsk via UAV strike (1121Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kinetic Activity: Russian forces utilized heavy aerial munitions (claimed FAB-500) to target a Ukrainian forward position (PVD) of the 58th OMPBR near Tokarevka. Footage shows strikes in a snowy, riverine environment (1139Z).
Weather: Kharkiv remains overcast at -5.4°C. Conditions are stable but the deep freeze is increasing the effectiveness of heavy munitions against static positions.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Slovyansk/Kramatorsk Axis: Russian ISR-strike loops appear to be tightening, evidenced by the successful targeting of civilian energy infrastructure transport and the alleged strike on a high-ranking Border Guard officer.
Weather: Pokrovsk is at -0.7°C with a 93% probability of snow (3.6mm expected), which will likely degrade visual-spectrum ISR and drone operations over the next 6 hours.
Rear Area Strikes: A drone strike was recorded on a civilian vehicle on the Petropavlivka-Troitske road in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating Russian loitering munition activity is extending deeper into the Ukrainian rear (1144Z).
Weather: Zaporizhzhia (0.6°C) and Kherson (0.9°C) are hovering near freezing with 90%+ probability of snow/light snow, creating slushy conditions that may impede heavy mechanized movement until temperatures drop further tonight.
4. Crimea & Black Sea:
Aviation: The confirmed loss of the Ka-27 helicopter is a significant blow to RU Black Sea Fleet ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) and SAR (Search and Rescue) capabilities.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ballistic Posturing: The "Oreshnik" alert served as a potent psychological operation synchronized with the start of Geneva talks. While no impacts were recorded, the threat forced a nationwide halt to activity, demonstrating Russia's "reflexive control" over Ukrainian civilian and military tempo.
Legislative Consolidation: The new FSB communication law and the move to censor casualty dates in Bashkortostan (1122Z) suggest the Kremlin is preparing for a period of heightened domestic information sensitivity, likely linked to the potential for increased mobilization or the domestic fallout of the Geneva negotiations.
Tactical Adaptations: RU forces are increasingly using UAVs to target logistics and personnel transport (Slovyansk TPP, Dnipropetrovsk vehicle), moving away from purely frontline kinetic engagements toward systematic attrition of Ukrainian human capital and infrastructure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: The repeated targeting of Tamanneftegaz and Ilsky refineries demonstrates a sustained UAF campaign to disrupt Russian oil revenue and military fuel supplies at the source.
Air Defense: UAF successfully managed a nationwide high-alert scenario, though the psychological strain on the population remains a factor.
Information environment / disinformation
NATO Involvement Narrative: RU state-aligned channels are promoting claims that American and Dutch contract pilots are operating Ukrainian F-16s (1122Z, Kotsnews, LOW confidence). This is likely intended to frame any RU aviation losses as direct combat with NATO.
Political Destabilization: RU sources are amplifying reports of the arrest of former Energy Minister Galushchenko to frame the Ukrainian government as corrupt and unstable during the Geneva talks (1122Z, Operatsiya Z).
Regional Friction: Propaganda regarding Polish lawsuits for historical damages (1131Z) continues the effort to create a wedge between Kyiv and Warsaw.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued high-intensity drone and artillery strikes in the Donbas sector to exploit the "Geneva window." Expect further psychological pressure via ballistic missile posturing without necessarily launching, intended to maintain a state of alarm.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A genuine "Oreshnik" or multi-axis cruise missile strike targeting the Ukrainian energy grid (specifically the Slovyansk/Dnipropetrovsk nodes) to capitalize on the current overcast weather which limits some types of AD interception.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDA] Precise damage assessment of the second Tamanneftegaz strike.
[TACTICAL] Verification of RU claims regarding the strike on the 58th OMPBR near Tokarevka.
[ISR] Monitoring for repositioning of Russian mobile ballistic launchers in the Astrakhan region following the "Oreshnik" alert.
