Ballistic Missile Threat (Kyiv): Immediate warning issued for the capital regarding potential ballistic missile application (1118Z, KMVA, HIGH).
Zapasne Captured (Zaporizhzhia): Russian 11th Guards Airborne Assault Brigade (VDV) has reportedly consolidated control over the settlement of Zapasne after multi-day combined arms operations (1048Z, Operation Z/RVvoenkory, HIGH).
High-Value Air Defense/Aviation Losses (RU): UAF General Staff confirmed the destruction of a Russian Ka-27 naval helicopter in occupied Crimea (1053Z, GenStaff UA, HIGH) and an S-300VM air defense system near Mariupol (1117Z, Mykolaivsky Vanek, MEDIUM).
Strategic Strike Confirmation: UAF General Staff formally confirmed the strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai), targeting critical RU fuel logistics (1104Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Sumy Strike Casualties: A massive Russian attack on Sumy resulted in at least six casualties and significant structural damage to property (1100Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Geneva Negotiations Start: The Russian delegation has arrived at the InterContinental Hotel; tripartite negotiations are scheduled to commence within 60 minutes (1059Z, TASS, HIGH).
Telegram Policy Shift (RU): State Duma officials have retreated from threats of a total April 1st ban, shifting rhetoric toward "negotiating with the platform" to block specific "fake-news" channels while maintaining C2 functionality (1108Z, TASS/Parker, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kinetic Activity: Sumy is under high-intensity aerial bombardment. Ground conditions (-5.5°C, overcast) remain stable for mechanized movement, but recent strikes on civilian infrastructure suggest a shift toward terror-bombing to degrade morale during Geneva talks.
Logistics: RU supply groups ("Tuapse") are actively delivering specialized combat rations to RU units on the Sumy axis, indicating sustained high-tempo operations (1052Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Environmental Constraints: Heavy snow (93% probability) and temperatures dropping to -4.2°C are beginning to impact visibility. RU forces hit three UAV control points in the rear/border areas (Anatoliivka) on Feb 16th, which may localizedly degrade RU ISR in the short term.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zapasne Axis: The fall of Zapasne to the 11th VDV is now confirmed by visual combat footage. This marks a tactical success for RU forces seeking to widen the breach toward the H-08 highway.
Aerial Activity: New UAV waves are approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south (1049Z).
Air Defense Degradation: The reported destruction of three UAV control points near Huliaipole and Zatyshshia (1053Z) suggests UAF is systematically targeting the Russian "eyes" to counter the Zapasne push.
4. Crimea & Black Sea:
Aviation Attrition: The loss of the Ka-27 naval helicopter in Crimea degrades RU anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and search-and-rescue (SAR) capabilities in the Black Sea.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RU forces are exploiting the "Geneva window" to maximize territorial gains in the South (Zapasne) while using ballistic and UAV strikes against Sumy and Kyiv to pin UAF reserves and air defenses in the North.
Hybrid/C2: The reversal on the Telegram ban confirms the platform's criticality to RU frontline C2. Moscow is likely attempting to coerce Telegram into localized censorship rather than a full blackout which would disrupt their own operations.
Personnel: New proposals to allow discharge for non-contract personnel for family reasons (1103Z) suggest growing internal pressure regarding the indefinite nature of service for mobilized forces.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-ISR/AD: UAF is successfully executing a "deep and wide" counter-sensor campaign, taking out high-end AD (S-300VM), naval aviation (Ka-27), and localized UAV hubs (1117Z, 1053Z).
Civil-Military Continuity: Despite the kinetic escalation, the UA government is maintaining domestic economic initiatives (National Cashback updates) and education funding in frontline regions (Dnipropetrovsk).
Information environment / disinformation
"Intermarium" Narrative: RU-aligned channels are pushing a narrative of Polish imperialist ambitions (1052Z) to sow discord between Kyiv and its primary logistics hub in Warsaw.
Geneva Leverage: RU state media is emphasizing the arrival of their delegation as a "peace-seeking" move, contrasted with their simultaneous escalation on the ground and against civilian centers like Sumy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will execute a synchronized ballistic missile strike on Kyiv/Northern hubs within the next 1-3 hours to "set the stage" for the start of Geneva talks. In the South, RU will attempt to push past Zapasne before heavy snow (code 73) fully degrades mechanized mobility.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU forces utilize the Mariupol-axis S-300VM gap (if backfilled quickly) to launch a surge of cruise missiles targeting Zaporizhzhia's power grid while the 11th VDV attempts a lightning push toward the H-08.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirmation of UAF secondary defense lines west of Zapasne.
[BDA] Satellite or ground-truthing of the S-300VM strike near Mariupol.
[LOGISTICS] Monitoring RU rail activity from the 260th GRAU Arsenal to confirm if the "silence" was a precursor to the currently active ballistic/UAV surge.
