Geneva Diplomatic Phase: The Russian Federation delegation has arrived at the InterContinental Hotel in Geneva for tripartite negotiations, joining the previously arrived Ukrainian delegation. (1044Z, TASS, HIGH).
Deep Strike on RU Energy Infrastructure: UAF General Staff confirmed successful strikes against the Ilsky Oil Refinery (NPP), alongside logistics hubs and a divisional communications node in occupied territories. (1034Z, GenStaff UA, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Tactical Confirmation: Visual evidence has emerged of the Russian "Dnepr" group storming Zapasnoye, corroborating earlier MoD claims and suggesting the "negative offensive" reports may have been localized or premature. (1048Z, RVvoenkory, MEDIUM).
Increased Aerial Pressure (North): New waves of Russian UAVs are approaching Sumy from the east and Kharkiv from the northeast. (1035Z/1043Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
US-UA Strategic Engagement: US Senators Whitehouse and Blumenthal visited Kyiv to discuss the potential transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. (1038Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
Counter-Information Operations: UAF Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat formally denied reports of foreign (US/Dutch) pilots flying UA F-16s, characterizing the claims as disinformation. (1024Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Border Attrition: The RU "Anvar" unit is actively targeting UAF fortifications and bunkers in the Gorsk, Timofeevka, and Khrenovka axes using FPV drones (1040Z). This aligns with the RU objective of establishing a territorial "buffer zone."
Aerial Activity: Active UAV threats are currently transiting toward Kharkiv (-5.6°C, 66% cloud) and Sumy. High visibility (partly cloudy) in the Kharkiv sector currently favors RU reconnaissance-strike loops.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Operational Tempo: Frontline activity is currently characterized by small-unit actions and drone harassment. However, weather is becoming the primary constraint; Pokrovsk is currently -1.0°C with 93% cloud cover and heavy snow (93% probability) imminent.
Urban Combat (Hybrid): RU sources allege UAF personnel are utilizing civilian disguises in urban areas to evade drone detection (1028Z); while unconfirmed, this indicates high RU surveillance density in urban contested zones.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zapasnoye Axis: Tactical footage confirms RU mechanized/infantry assaults within Zapasnoye. The RU "Dnepr" group appears to have consolidated some gains despite previous reports of stalling.
Weather Factor: Orikhiv and Kherson are moving toward heavy overcast (97%) and snow (90% prob). This will significantly degrade visual ISR and FPV operations in the next 3-6 hours.
4. Strategic Rear / Deep Strike:
Ilsky NPP Strike: The strike on the Ilsky refinery represents a continuation of the strategy to degrade RU fuel logistics and export revenue during the Geneva talks. BDA is currently being assessed via satellite/OSINT.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RU forces are utilizing "Anvar" and "Akhmat" units to aggressively clear border fortifications in the North, likely to secure the flanks of their "buffer zone" before any potential ceasefire discussions stabilize the lines.
Internal Stability: RU State Duma officials are publicly walking back threats of a Telegram ban (1028Z), likely realizing the catastrophic impact such a move would have on RU military C2, which remains heavily dependent on the platform.
Personnel/Logistics: Reports indicate RU conscripts may be diverted to MCH (Emergency Situations Ministry) roles (1031Z), potentially to free up professional personnel for frontline deployment or to manage the increasing domestic impact of UA deep strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Attrition: Focus remains on deep strikes (Ilsky) and maintaining the integrity of the air defense umbrella against the current UAV waves over Sumy and Kharkiv.
Diplomatic Integration: The Kyiv visit by US Senators indicates a push for "long-range leverage" (Tomahawks) to supplement UA’s defensive posture during the Geneva talks.
Information environment / disinformation
"Foreign Pilot" Narrative: RU sources continue to push the narrative of NATO pilots in UA cockpits to frame the conflict as a direct NATO-Russia engagement. The UA Air Force's aggressive denial is a necessary counter-measure for international audience management.
Nuclear Rhetoric: RU pro-war channels are amplifying Western "expert" voices (e.g., Larry Johnson) to promote the idea of US nuclear recklessness (1028Z), likely intended to deter further high-end US weapon transfers (Tomahawks).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will maintain high-intensity UAV and artillery pressure on Northern border regions (Sumy/Kharkiv) to project strength during the opening hours of the Geneva talks. Heavy snow in the South and East will force a transition to localized infantry-led "meat assaults" as FPV drone support becomes restricted.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU forces utilize the incoming blizzard in the Pokrovsk/Orikhiv sectors to launch a mechanized thrust, utilizing the lack of UAF aerial surveillance to reach the H-08 highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDA] Detailed assessment of damage at the Ilsky Oil Refinery and the communications node strike.
[TACTICAL] Confirmation of current control limits in Zapasnoye; determine if UAF has established a secondary line of defense west of the settlement.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor for any "leak" of preliminary terms from the InterContinental Geneva talks to assess potential RU/UA "red lines" being tested.
