UAF Mass Drone Operation Scale: Russian MoD confirms 151 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted overnight across Crimea, the Black/Azov Seas, and four Russian regions; confirms the intensity of the UAF strategic deep-strike effort (0519Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Secondary UAV Wave - Northern Ukraine: A new group of Shahed-type UAVs has entered Northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving toward Snovsk and Chernihiv city (0526Z, 0546Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Targeted Re-strike on Burshtyn: At least one "moped" (Shahed) is currently transiting Ternopil toward the Burshtyn TPP, likely a BDA/re-strike follow-up to this morning's cruise missile impacts (0530Z, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH).
Odesa Energy Infrastructure Hit: Pro-Russian sources report and provide video evidence of combined missile/drone strikes causing significant fires at energy facilities in Odesa and the surrounding region (0534Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
Claimed RU Advance in Zaporizhzhia: Russian MoD claims the "liberation" of Zapasne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast); video shows mechanized movement in winter conditions (0535Z, Басурин о главном, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
FSB Communication Control: New Russian legislation empowers the FSB to block communications without citing specific security threats, coinciding with reported Telegram service degradation and "Starlink blockages" (0524Z, Север.Реалии, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western/Northern Ukraine (Energy/Air Defense):
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat has shifted from mass cruise missiles to localized UAV "mop-up" operations. Focus remains on the Burshtyn TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk) and new vectors into Chernihiv from the East.
Key Terrain: Chernihiv's northern districts (Snovsk, Koryukivka) are under active flight path.
2. Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Enemy Activity: RU forces have expanded the "energy blackmail" campaign to the Odesa hub, successfully striking targets to degrade regional grid stability.
Zaporizhzhia Ground Action: If the RU claim regarding Zapasne is confirmed, it suggests a tactical exploitation of the hardening ground. Temperatures in Orikhiv are -2.5°C with a 85% probability of snow (4.6mm), creating visibility challenges for UAF drone corrections.
Tactical Tech: RU 59th Guards Tank Regiment is employing "Upyre" FPV drones for both strike and counter-UAV roles against UAF heavy quadcopters (0535Z, Kotsnews).
3. Russian Rear / Deep Rear:
Symmetric Effects: The 151-drone wave targets the Southern Group of Forces' supply chain. RU MoD is emphasizing high intercept rates to maintain domestic stability despite confirmed hits at Ilsky.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RU is utilizing a "high-low" mix of expensive cruise missiles for initial penetration followed by cheap Shahed UAVs to disrupt repair efforts and conduct BDA.
Logistics & C2: The FSB's new authority to block comms (0524Z) suggests an internal crackdown on information flow, likely to mask troop movements or suppress news of UAF deep-strike impacts.
Force Composition: Russian units (144th MRD) are increasingly integrating specialized "drone-killer" FPV teams into their tactical front line to counter UAF's superior tactical UAV advantage.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successful clearance of alerts in Kyiv (0526Z) and Zaporizhzhia (0522Z); however, current vectors in Chernihiv and Ternopil indicate persistent saturation.
Attrition: UAF General Staff reports 890 enemy personnel neutralized in the last 24h, bringing cumulative totals to approximately 1.25M (0519Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Resilience: Local administrations (Kryvyi Rih) report controlled situations despite the massive morning strike wave (0538Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Russiagate/US Focus: RU state media (TASS) is amplifying narratives targeting US domestic politics (Hillary Clinton/Russiagate) to distract from the Geneva negotiations and frame the war as a US-driven diversion (0527Z).
Internal Stability: RU sources are highlighting "public monitoring of utility prices" (0534Z) and Moscow's record snowfall (0544Z) to project a sense of domestic normalcy amidst the mass UAF drone strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Shahed activity over Chernihiv, Sumy, and Western Ukraine to force UAF AD to deplete interceptor stocks. RU will likely attempt to consolidate gains in the Zapasne/Zaporizhzhia sector before the forecast snow (4.6mm) reduces mobility.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary cruise missile wave launched from the Black Sea (Kalibr) or Caspian (Tu-95s) to hit the Odesa energy hub while repair crews are exposed, capitalizing on the clear skies in the south before the snow front arrives.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[GROUND TRUTH - ZAPASNE] Confirm control status of Zapasne; RU MoD footage needs geolocation to verify if this is a fresh gain or archival footage.
[ENERGY BDA] Assess the extent of the fires in Odesa. Determine if the strike targeted the transformer substations or the generation capacity.
[COMMUNICATIONS] Monitor RU frontline frequencies for shifts from Starlink/Telegram to organic radio gear following the FSB's new blocking authorities.
