Kinetic Strike on Energy Infrastructure: Multiple cruise missiles impacted the vicinity of the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP), Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast; series of explosions confirmed (0512Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Missile Wave Termination: All active cruise missile targets have been cleared from Ukrainian airspace as of 0510Z; primary terminal phase focused on Western Ukraine (0510Z, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH).
UAF Deep Strike Success: A fire is confirmed at the Ilsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai, RU) following a Ukrainian drone wave; RU authorities also report damage to a locomotive depot in Khutor Krasny (0458Z, 0513Z, ASTRA/TASS, HIGH).
Geneva Diplomatic Movement: The Russian delegation, led by Medinsky, has entered Swiss airspace via Italy, synchronizing their arrival with the conclusion of the morning's mass missile strikes (0516Z, TASS, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Front Intensity: RU forces launched 386 strikes against 35 settlements in Zaporizhzhia over the last 24h, indicating high-intensity preparatory fires (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH).
RU Communication Degradation: Pro-Russian channels are reporting urgent equipment shortages and communication outages following alleged Starlink terminal blockages, initiating emergency fundraising for radio gear (0452Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Ukraine (Terminal Phase):
Battlefield Geometry: The cruise missile wave transited Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi before executing a course change north/northwest toward the Ivano-Frankivsk/Lviv border.
Key Terrain: The Burshtyn TPP was the confirmed focal point for the final 4 missiles of the wave. This facility is critical for the synchronization of the Ukrainian grid with the European ENTSO-E system.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Enemy Activity: Increased UAV activity in the Polohy direction targeting UAF communication nodes (0500Z, Voin DV).
Environment: Temperatures at Orikhiv are -2.6°C with 83% cloud cover. The forecast predicts a 85% probability of snow (4.6mm) today, which will likely constrain tactical aviation but allow heavy armor maneuver on hardened ground.
3. Russian Rear (Krasnodar/Bryansk):
Symmetric Effects: UAF drone operations successfully penetrated RU air defenses to strike the Ilsky Refinery and rail infrastructure (locomotive depot) in Krasnodar. This targets the logistics of the Southern Group of Forces (SGF).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The RU morning strike utilized complex routing (transit through Mykolaiv -> Vinnytsia -> Khmelnytskyi -> Ternopil -> Ivano-Frankivsk) to bypass established AD bubbles. The shift to a "northward" course at the border of Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk suggests pre-programmed waypoint maneuvering to confuse interceptors.
Strategic Intent: The focus on Burshtyn TPP, combined with RU claims of strikes on Dnipropetrovsk energy infrastructure (0505Z, UNCONFIRMED), points to a systematic "energy blackmail" effort to coincide with the start of Geneva talks.
Logistics Status: The urgent RU fundraising for radios suggests that electronic warfare (EW) or service provider restrictions (Starlink) are creating significant C2 (Command and Control) gaps for RU frontline units.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Effective tracking of the Western vector; however, the impact in Burshtyn indicates the final saturation maneuver (4 missiles on a single TPP) achieved partial penetration.
Long-Range Strike: UAF continues to demonstrate high-volume (151+ UAVs) long-range strike capabilities, successfully transitioning from military-only targets to economic/logistics targets (refineries and rail depots).
Personnel: UAF claims 890 enemy casualties over the past 24h, maintaining a high attrition rate against RU "meat assaults."
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Leverage: RU state media is emphasizing Medinsky’s flight path and the OPCW note on Navalny (0451Z, 0516Z), attempting to frame Russia as a disciplined diplomatic actor while simultaneously conducting "de-energization" strikes.
Fundraising Narratives: RU "Military Correspondent" channels are amplifying the Starlink outage to solicit funds, which may also serve as a narrative to explain recent RU tactical failures in the Polohy or Pokrovsk sectors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A transition to a "re-strike" phase using Shahed-136/131 UAVs to target repair crews at Burshtyn and Dnipro energy sites. BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) drones will likely be active over Western Ukraine.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Leveraging the frozen ground (-8.8°C in Kharkiv, -4.3°C in Pokrovsk) and high cloud cover (78-100%), RU may initiate a mechanized breakout in the Pokrovsk sector while UAF focuses on rear-area damage control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] High-resolution imagery or ground-truth confirmation of the operational status of Burshtyn TPP.
[ELECTRONIC WARFARE] Technical verification of the "Starlink blockage" claims—determining if this is a localized EW effect, a provider-side restriction, or a RU disinformation cover for internal C2 failures.
[LOGISTICS] Monitoring for the resumption of movement at the 260th GRAU Arsenal to see if the missile wave will be sustained or if a pause for reload is beginning.
