Western Ukraine UAV Incursion: (0140Z-0143Z, PS ZSU / Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH) Five UAVs have entered Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk airspace from Ternopil Oblast, specifically targeting the Burshtyn/Zhydachiv/Khodoriv corridor.
Renewed UAV Pressure on Dnipro: (0120Z-0122Z, PS ZSU / Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH) Following the 0115Z ballistic strike, a new wave of UAVs is approaching Dnipro from the east (Pavlohrad vector).
Trans-Regional UAV Transit: (0125Z-0128Z, PS ZSU, HIGH) UAV groups are traversing central Ukraine, currently positioned south of Kyiv and bypassing Kropyvnytskyi on a westward heading.
Strategic Signaling: (0132Z, TASS, MEDIUM) Russian state media is broadcasting high-level commentary on US political unpredictability (Shokhin on Trump), likely intended to inject strategic uncertainty into the information space ahead of today’s Geneva negotiations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Lviv/Ivano-Frankivsk/Ternopil):
Deep Strike Profile: The movement toward Burshtyn (0140Z) strongly suggests a coordinated attempt to disable the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP), a critical node for the Western Ukrainian energy grid and electricity exports. This expands the kinetic footprint significantly beyond the earlier central-axis strikes.
2. Central & Eastern Axis (Dnipro/Kyiv/Kropyvnytskyi):
Target Saturation: The re-entry of UAVs into Dnipro airspace (0120Z) after ballistic arrivals indicates a "double-tap" or Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) mission.
Transit Corridors: Russian forces are utilizing the southern bypass of Kyiv and the Kropyvnytskyi corridor (0125Z-0128Z) to filter UAVs toward western targets, attempting to circumvent the denser Air Defense (AD) concentrations around the capital.
3. Environmental Factors:
Ground Trafficability: Temperatures remain well below freezing (Kharkiv -7.7°C, Pokrovsk -4.1°C, Kherson -3.2°C). Ground hardening is complete, permitting heavy mechanized movement.
Atmospheric Constraints: Current overcast conditions (99% cloud in Kharkiv, 75-89% in the south) favor UAV concealment. The 78% probability of snow in Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (forecasted for 0200Z-0500Z) remains the primary upcoming constraint for optical-guided AD and thermal reconnaissance.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Synchronization: The enemy has transitioned from localized strikes to a nationwide multi-vector UAV campaign. By synchronized movements in the West (Lviv) and East (Dnipro), they are forcing UAF AD to commit resources across all sectors simultaneously.
Course of Action: The trajectory of UAVs south of Kyiv suggests they are hunting for "soft" infrastructure targets or gaps in the mobile fire group coverage between regional AD hubs.
Logistics Status: The "silent depots" noted in previous reports are now confirmed to be in the "expenditure phase," with munitions likely in the air or at final launch-ready status for a potential pre-dawn cruise missile wave.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AD is actively tracking and engaging multiple groups across at least six oblasts. Priorities have likely shifted to include the protection of the Western energy bridge (Burshtyn).
Force Posture: Mobile fire groups are repositioning along the H-08 and M-05 corridors to intercept transiting UAVs.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Leveraging: Russian state media (TASS, 0132Z) is pivoting to discuss US foreign policy "fearlessness," a narrative designed to project Russian confidence and test Western resolve on the day of the Geneva talks.
Narrative Diversion: Continuous emphasis on the "Iran campaign" (0100Z) serves as a persistent distracter for Western audiences while the kinetic campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure intensifies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive pre-dawn (0400Z-0600Z) strike involving Kalibr or Kh-101 cruise missiles, timed to coincide with the arrival of the current UAV waves to maximize AD saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Western energy hub (Burshtyn) that successfully triggers a cascading failure of the regional grid, coupled with a mechanized push in the Pokrovsk sector under the cover of the incoming snowstorm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL] Confirm if the UAVs heading toward Lviv (0140Z) are standard Geran-2 or the newer, thermobaric-equipped variants used for infrastructure destruction.
[TACTICAL] Monitor for Black Sea Fleet (BSF) activity; specifically, whether any Kalibr carriers have departed Novorossiysk to support the current air operations.
[OPERATIONAL] Assess the impact of sub-zero temperatures on UAF mobile AD battery life and maintenance cycles during this sustained high-alert period.
