Ballistic Strike on Dnipro: (0115Z, RBC-UA, HIGH) Multiple explosions confirmed in Dnipro following ballistic missile warnings.
UAV Vector Shift: (0105Z, PS ZSU, HIGH) UAV groups in Poltava Oblast have bifurcated, moving south toward Kirovohrad and west toward Cherkasy.
Kinetic Impact in Krasnodar (RF): (0051Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM) Alleged Ukrainian UAV strike or debris fall in Ilsky, Krasnodar Krai; visual evidence confirms significant fire and damage to residential structures.
Judicial Hostage Diplomacy: (0109Z, TASS, MEDIUM) Russian court sentenced US citizen Robert Mao to 4 years for weapon part smuggling, likely providing Moscow with "exchange fund" leverage ahead of Geneva talks.
Disinformation/Diversion: (0100Z, Colonelcassad, LOW) Pro-Russian sources are amplifying rumors of a multi-week US military campaign against Iran to saturate the Western information space and distract from regional escalation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Central & Eastern Axis (Dnipro/Poltava/Donbas):
Ballistic Engagement: The arrival of ballistic missiles in Dnipro (0112Z-0115Z) marks a significant escalation from the UAV-only shaping operations seen earlier. This likely targets industrial capacity or logistics hubs supporting the Pokrovsk front.
UAV Transit: Poltava is currently serving as a primary transit corridor. The southern movement toward Kirovohrad (0105Z) suggests a secondary effort to isolate the Dnipro bend from western reinforcements or to target the Kanatove Air Base.
Ground Mobility: Temperatures in Kharkiv (-7.5°C) and Pokrovsk (-4.0°C) have solidified the ground. Current weather context shows 0.0mm precip, but the 78% snow forecast for Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (starting within 3-6 hours) will soon degrade thermal optics and AD target acquisition.
2. Southern Axis (Odesa/Crimea/Kherson):
Residual Effects: Following the Odesa substation hit (0037Z), the regional grid remains under stress.
Internal Threat (RF): The strike in Ilsky (0051Z) demonstrates UAF’s continued ability to penetrate Russian airspace in the Krasnodar region, likely targeting infrastructure near the Ilsky refinery complex to disrupt fuel supplies to the Southern Group of Forces.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The enemy is now employing a "High-Low" mix—using Shahed UAVs to exhaust AD interceptors and map active radar sites, followed immediately by ballistic strikes (Dnipro, 0115Z) to hit high-value targets while defenses are saturated.
Course of Action: Expect a third wave consisting of sea-launched Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea, as the previous maritime drone threat in Sevastopol (0025Z) may have forced Russian vessels into "fire-on-departure" status to avoid being caught in port.
Logistics: The "silent depots" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal suggest that the munitions for this ballistic phase were pre-staged several days ago.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups are active in Poltava and Cherkasy. UAF AD is currently prioritizing the protection of the energy nodes in Central Ukraine.
Deep Strike: The Ilsky incident (0051Z) indicates that UAF long-range UAV units are maintaining pressure on Russian rear logistics in Krasnodar Krai, likely synchronized with the naval drone operations in Crimea to overstretch Russian domestic security.
Information environment / disinformation
Leverage Maneuvers: The sentencing of Robert Mao (0109Z) and the Iran campaign narrative (0100Z) are classic "noise" operations. Moscow is creating a multi-crisis environment to dilute Western focus on the Geneva negotiations and the Ukrainian energy crisis.
Domestic Narrative: Russian regional authorities (ASTRA, 0051Z) are emphasizing "civilian house damage" in Krasnodar to frame UAF strikes as "terrorist" in nature, likely to justify the ongoing kinetic campaign against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued ballistic and cruise missile strikes against Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia hubs, synchronized with the onset of heavy snow (0200Z-0500Z) to mask Russian ground movements in the Myrnohrad outskirts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Dark-Out" operation where energy nodes in Khmelnytskyi and Rivne are struck simultaneously with the Dnipro ballistic campaign, leading to a regional grid collapse during sub-zero temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Dnipro explosions (0115Z); identify if the target was the Southern Machine-Building Plant or energy distribution.
[OPERATIONAL] Determine if the UAV movement toward Kirovohrad (0105Z) is a feint or a precursor to a strike on the H-08 logistics corridor.
[TECHNICAL] Identify the ballistic missile variant used in the Dnipro strike (Iskander-M vs. North Korean KN-23) to assess enemy inventory and launch locations.
