Ongoing Aerial Assault: (0750Z, GS ZSU, HIGH) UAF intercepted 54 of 68 targets (2 Zircon missiles, 52 UAVs) overnight. The attack is reported as "ongoing" with fresh UAV sightings over Kharkiv and Sumy (toward Hlukhiv).
Targeted Infrastructure Strike: (0754Z, ASTRA/GSChS, HIGH) Confirmed drone damage and subsequent fires in the Koryukivka district, Chernihiv Oblast.
Claimed Russian Advance in Sumy: (0815Z, Colonelcassad, LOW) Russian sources claim the "Sever" grouping has captured Pokrovka (Krasnopillia Raion). UNCONFIRMED.
Heavy Ground Combat (24h): (0807Z, GS ZSU, HIGH) Intense activity reported over the last 24 hours: 21 attacks in the Oleksandrivka direction and 6 assaults in the Kursk/North Slobozhansky sector.
Internal Russian Readiness: (0752Z, Lipetsk Gov, MEDIUM) An air hazard regime was declared in Lipetsk Oblast, indicating Ukrainian deep-strike capability remains a concern for Russian regional authorities.
Energy Infrastructure Under Pressure: (0805Z, Russian source, MEDIUM) Russian reports claim fresh missile strikes targeting energy objects, likely timed with the forecasted cold snap.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Chernihiv: Kinetic impact confirmed in Koryukivka (0754Z).
Sumy: Potential Russian breakthrough in Pokrovka (0815Z, UNCONFIRMED). UAF repelled 6 assaults in the North Slobozhansky direction yesterday. Current weather: 7.7°C, light rain, wind 6.0 m/s.
Kharkiv: 4 repelled Russian attacks near Veterynarne and Vovchanski Khutory (0807Z). Drone alerts active as of 0754Z. Ground temp 5.5°C; 100% cloud cover.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk/Oleksandrivka Sector: Remains the highest-intensity combat zone. 21 attacks recorded in the Oleksandrivka direction alone (0807Z). Winds are currently 8.7 m/s, reaching a forecast max of 9.4 m/s, severely impacting tactical UAV stability.
Lyman/Sloviansk: Russian forces conducted 6 attacks near Stavky and Drobysheve. UAF successfully held positions near Yampil and Zakitne.
Toretsk: Pro-Russian sources claim the destruction of a UAF "Vampire" UAV and its control station via FPV strike (0801Z, LOW).
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv: Heavy Russian aviation activity reported across 12 settlements, including Huliaipole and Orikhiv (0807Z). Current wind 8.7 m/s.
Tactical Shift: The continued use of Zircon hypersonic missiles (2 suppressed) suggests a sustained effort to penetrate high-value AD bubbles.
Exploiting Weather Windows: Russian aviation is intensifying strikes (0807Z) ahead of a forecasted temperature drop to -6.6°C (Kharkiv) and -1.8°C (Zaporizhzhia). The shift from rain to freezing conditions will facilitate heavy armor movement over the next 12-24 hours.
Personnel Discipline: Reports of a retired Rear Admiral being sentenced for theft (0804Z) and an "SVO" veteran arrested for a double murder in Yakutia (0811Z) indicate ongoing systemic friction and social blowback from the mobilization of convict-recruits.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: Air Defense remains effective, maintaining a ~79% interception rate against a multi-domain overnight strike.
Strategic Communication: The 47th Mechanized Brigade is highlighting internal cohesion and the plight of families of the missing (0813Z), a move likely intended to maintain domestic morale during heavy fighting.
Administrative Flexibility: The government has extended physical identification deadlines for pensioners in occupied territories (0810Z), securing the financial link between the state and citizens behind enemy lines.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Framing: State media is emphasizing "solar flares" and internal European political "crises" (0807Z, 0758Z) to divert attention from front-line losses and domestic legal scandals.
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-Russian sources are promoting memoirs of former Wagner convicts (0803Z) to normalize the participation of criminal elements in the "SVO."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV "probing" attacks on Kharkiv and Sumy to identify gaps in air defense prior to a secondary missile wave.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated mechanized push in the Oleksandrivka/Pokrovsk sector as the ground begins to freeze after midnight (UTC), utilizing the high volume of airstrikes conducted over the last 24h as suppression.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[VERIFICATION] Confirm the status of Pokrovka (Sumy Oblast). Does this represent a localized raid or the establishment of a sustained Russian bridgehead?
[SITUATIONAL AWARENESS] Monitor Lipetsk (Russia) for indications of successful UAF deep-strike results that triggered the "air hazard."
[LOGISTICS] Assess the extent of damage to energy infrastructure from the 0805Z strikes; determine if localized blackouts will affect UAF C2 in the Chernihiv/Kharkiv sectors.
