Major Air Defense Engagement: (0729Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) UAF successfully intercepted 54 of 68 Russian aerial assets overnight. Notably, 2 of 4 3M22 Zirkon hypersonic missiles were downed/suppressed, alongside 52 UAVs. At least 1 Iskander-M and 1 Kh-31P reached targets.
Odesa IED Target Identified: (0743Z, Военкор Котенок, LOW) Pro-Russian sources claim the victim of the earlier reported Odesa car explosion was a retired Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) Colonel, allegedly targeted via an IED linked to his vehicle’s alarm system.
Ukrposhta Designated "Military Infrastructure": (0720Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) CEO Smilyanskyi announced 100% of Ukrposhta staff are now reserved from mobilization. This follows a MoD contract for draft notice delivery, officially classifying the postal service as critical military infrastructure.
Diplomatic Movement: (0729Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MEDIUM) A Ukrainian delegation has departed for Geneva for high-level negotiations involving the U.S. and Russia.
Russian Volunteer Recruitment Drive: (0734Z, Два майора, MEDIUM) Dmitry Rogozin has announced a large-scale recruitment campaign for the "BARS-Sarmat" volunteer unit, focusing on technical and drone-related specialties under one-year contracts.
Large-Scale Internal Security Operation in Russia: (0722Z, Басурин о главном, MEDIUM) The FSB and SOBR reportedly conducted raids across 37 Russian regions, detaining 86 individuals and seizing over 100 firearms, targeting illegal arms manufacturing networks.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv/Vovchansk: Currently 5.5°C with light rain (Code 61). Cloud cover is 100%. The forecasted drop to -6.6°C within the next 12 hours remains the primary operational concern, as it will transition mud into frozen ruts and likely induce severe icing on drone optics.
Sumy: No further confirmation on the status of Pokrovka. Continued monitoring for cross-border raids is required.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Pokrovsk Sector: Remains the Russian Main Effort (ME). Current temperature is 7.5°C with high winds (8.4 m/s). Wind speeds continue to degrade tactical UAV loiter times.
Rear Areas: One civilian reported in heavy condition following shelling in the Perevalsk district (0728Z).
Combat Activity: Russian Grad MLRS from the Aleysk Motorized Rifle Formation are confirmed active against UAF treeline positions in the sector (0720Z, MoD Russia).
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): Overcast, 5.7°C. High winds (8.9 m/s) persist, limiting aerial reconnaissance. This confirms the tactical value of the Russian "Courier" UGVs previously reported as they are not wind-dependent for logistics.
Kherson: Currently 1.1°C, near the freezing point. Low cloud base (99%) facilitates visual concealment for riverine operations.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
High-End Strike Capability: The use of four Zirkon hypersonic missiles in a single night indicates a shift toward using high-survivability assets to penetrate UAF air defenses around critical infrastructure. While 50% were suppressed, the remaining impacts suggest Russia is prioritizing high-value, time-sensitive targets.
Sustainment & Recruitment: The BARS-Sarmat recruitment drive specifically seeks technical specialties, indicating a Russian intent to professionalize their "volunteer" drone and EW units to counter UAF technical superiority.
Internal Security Cracks: The FSB raids across 37 regions suggest a significant Russian concern regarding internal proliferation of weapons, likely leaking back from the front lines into the domestic criminal or partisan sphere.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Hardening: The 100% reservation of Ukrposhta staff is a strategic move to ensure the continuity of mobilization and communication infrastructure despite increased sabotage (arsons) targeting the service.
Legal Warfare: The Office of the General Prosecutor’s move to issue suspicions against the Russian Black Sea Fleet command (0722Z) serves to document war crimes for international tribunals, specifically regarding the Lviv 2023 strikes.
Diplomatic Initiative: The Geneva talks represent a potential inflection point for strategic-level coordination with Western allies.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Escalation Rhetoric: Russian state media (Solovyov) is heavily framing the arrival of German-flagged drones as an "existential threat" (0727Z). This narrative is designed to justify potential retaliatory strikes against logistics hubs and to pressure Western donors.
Mobilization Friction: Russian sources continue to highlight "weekly arsons" of Ukrposhta offices (0741Z) to amplify perceived domestic instability in Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A surge in mechanized movement as temperatures drop below zero (-2°C to -6°C) after midnight across the Kharkiv and Donbas sectors. The hardening ground will facilitate armored maneuvers that were previously restricted by mud.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A follow-on missile strike utilizing the remaining Zirkon or Iskander-M inventory, timed with the severe cold snap (-18°C forecasted for Russian border regions, likely affecting Northern Ukraine) to overwhelm energy restoration efforts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Identify the impact locations of the two Zirkon missiles and the Iskander-M that were not intercepted.
[TARGETING] Confirm the identity and status of the victim in the Odesa explosion; verify if this represents a systematic GRU campaign against retired senior officers.
[RECONNAISSANCE] Monitor for the deployment of BARS-Sarmat personnel to identify if they are being integrated into existing formations or forming independent specialized drone companies.
