Situation Update (0856Z 15 FEB 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Air Defense Success: Ukrainian Air Forces report 55 Russian UAVs shot down or electronically suppressed overnight (0856Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
- Strike Quantification: President Zelenskyy confirmed a massive weekly strike volume: ~1,300 UAVs, ~1,200 KABs, and 50 missiles (mostly ballistic) launched against Ukraine this week (0837Z, Zelenskiy, HIGH).
- Regional Strike Confirmations: Fresh strikes confirmed in Sumy, Odesa, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions targeting residential and energy infrastructure (0848Z, KMVA, HIGH).
- Unit Identification (Zaporizhzhia): Elements of the Russian 291st Regiment, 42nd Division (Commander "Matros") confirmed active on the Zaporizhzhia front (0831Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM).
- Mechanized Losses (Kupyansk): Geolocation of destroyed Russian armored equipment in the Kupyansk sector; video evidence contradicts initial Russian claims, showing high attrition of "our [Russian] equipment" (0841Z, BUTUSOV PLUS, MEDIUM).
- Weather Alert (Northern Border): Severe snow warnings issued for Bryansk region (RU) for Feb 16, likely impacting logistics and building integrity (0833Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Continued air pressure on Odesa follows the previous report of strikes on the Kulbakino airfield (Mykolaiv). In Zaporizhzhia, the presence of the 291st Regiment/42nd Division confirms the continued utilization of "Vostok" grouping elements to exploit the reported Huliaipole breach.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kupyansk):
While Russian forces claim movement, video evidence from the Kupyansk sector confirms significant mechanized losses in snowy terrain. This suggests that while the "deep freeze" allows movement, Ukrainian anti-armor and drone units are successfully interdicting Russian columns.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Bryansk Border):
Sumy is currently under increased air/missile pressure. Meteorological data indicates a major blizzard for the Bryansk/Sumy border region starting 16 Feb, which will likely constrain aerial reconnaissance and mechanized maneuver for both sides.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Drone Proliferation: Russian "unmanned systems" units are actively deploying fixed-wing FPV drones for longer-range tactical strikes in winter conditions (0830Z, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM).
- Strike Intensity: The weekly average of ~185 UAVs and ~170 KABs per day indicates a high-intensity suppression campaign intended to exhaust Ukrainian AD interceptors.
- Counter-Strikes: Unconfirmed reports suggest UA is conducting "all night/morning" attacks on Russian border regions (0838Z, Kotenok, LOW).
Logistics & Sustainment:
Heavy snowfall in the Bryansk region (forecasted) may lead to structural failures of temporary depots and significant delays in the "last mile" logistics for the Northern grouping.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense Integrity: Despite the high volume of incoming threats, the 55 confirmed intercepts/suppressions overnight indicate that tactical AD remains functional, though likely strained.
- Defensive Success: Ukrainian units near Kupyansk are maintaining high kill ratios against Russian armored assaults, as evidenced by Russian-sourced footage of their own destroyed columns.
- Diplomatic Effort: Consultations in Munich (e.g., Senator Rubio/Zelenskyy) are focused on securing the $15 billion aid package and immediate AD reinforcements to counter the reported ballistic missile surge (0850Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
- Disinformation/Hybrid Ops: Russian channels are circulating fabrications regarding the "Hedgehog 2025" NATO exercise in Estonia, claiming Ukrainian drone operators are teaching NATO how to "neutralize large units." This aims to frame Ukraine as a "combat testing ground" for NATO aggression (0837Z, Two Majors, LOW confidence in claim/HIGH confidence in propaganda intent).
- Domestic RU Narrative: Commemoration of the Soviet-Afghan war withdrawal is being used to bolster "internationalist soldier" narratives and normalize current casualties (0848Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued ballistic missile and KAB strikes on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia to exploit the reported tactical breaches. UAV activity will likely focus on "blinding" UA units before the blizzard hits.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian exploitation of the Kupyansk sector despite losses, attempting to push mechanized reserves through the snow before the 16 Feb blizzard freezes logistics lines.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verify the specific types of ballistic missiles used in the "50 missile" weekly count—are these Iranian or North Korean origin?
- [HIGH] Assess the operational status of the 291st Regiment in Zaporizhzhia—is this a fresh rotation or a depleted unit being pushed into the Huliaipole breach?
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the Bryansk blizzard on Russian cross-border shelling—will artillery units relocate or dig in?
- [MEDIUM] Confirm the "all morning" UA strikes into RU territory—targets and effectiveness are currently unknown.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
