Situation Update (0826Z 15 FEB 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Airfield Strike (Mykolaiv): Russian forces conducted overnight "Geran" (Shahed) UAV strikes targeting the Kulbakino military airfield in Mykolaiv (0806Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
- C2 Degradation (Nikolaypolye): Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian communication antenna and Starlink terminal near Nikolaypolye, targeting tactical C2 nodes (0801Z, DNR Militia, MEDIUM).
- Tactical Aviation (Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk): Multiple guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches confirmed at the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions (0809Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- Persistent UAV Activity: A Russian UAV was detected over Pysmenne (Dnipropetrovsk region) tracking a southern course (0824Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- New Capability Deployment: Russia is testing the "Barrazh-1" stratospheric aerostat platform, capable of 100kg payloads at 20km altitude to provide mobile 5G/LTE connectivity for frontline units (0804Z, Kotsnews, MEDIUM).
- Diplomatic Information Operation: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin floated a narrative regarding Russia serving as a "temporary administration" for Ukraine under UN auspices (0817Z, Tsaplienko, LOW confidence in intent/HIGH confidence in propaganda effort).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa):
The strike on Kulbakino Airfield follows the previous report of railway infrastructure destruction in Odesa. This indicates a coordinated campaign to degrade Ukrainian air capabilities and logistical throughput in the south. The southern movement of UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk suggests continued reconnaissance or redirection toward southern coastal targets.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border):
A localized uptick in KAB strikes at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions suggests the Vostok grouping is attempting to soften defensive lines west of the reported Huliaipole breach. The targeting of Starlink terminals in Nikolaypolye confirms a priority on degrading Ukrainian tactical communications to facilitate mechanized movement on frozen ground.
Northern/Kyiv Sector:
No new kinetic strikes reported in the last hour, but the information environment remains saturated with reports of "catastrophic" utility failure. The focus remains on infrastructure resilience amidst -27°C temperatures.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
- C2 Interdiction: The focus on Starlink and antennas near Nikolaypolye indicates a shift toward blinding Ukrainian units at the point of contact before further maneuvers.
- Stratospheric Communications: The "Barrazh-1" aerostat represents an attempt to bypass Ukrainian Electronic Warfare (EW) and provide resilient high-bandwidth data links for Russian drone-heavy formations.
- Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a multi-axis air pressure campaign, using Shaheds for deep-rear airfield strikes (Kulbakino) while utilizing KABs for tactical suppression at the edge of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Logistics hubs in the rear (e.g., 260th GRAU Arsenal) remain quiet, which historically precedes a massive munitions expenditure. Movement of Shahed-type UAVs toward the south suggests a potential night-time saturation attack on Odesa and Mykolaiv ports.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Tactical Comms Resilience: UAF units are facing localized communication disruptions due to targeted FPV strikes on Starlink nodes. Rapid displacement of terminals and use of redundant systems (wired/radio) is critical.
- Air Defense: UA Air Force remains highly active in tracking and alerting units to KAB and UAV threats, though the frequency of KAB launches is stressing mid-range AD systems.
- Crowdfunding/Logistics: Civilian and volunteer organizations (e.g., Sternenko) continue fundraising for drone intercepts, though intake is currently reported at only 3% of daily requirements (0801Z, Sternenko), indicating a possible dip in civilian resource availability.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
- Normalization of Occupation: The proposal for Russia as a "temporary administrator" is a high-level strategic narrative intended to signal "reasonable" exit ramps to international observers while undermining Ukrainian sovereignty.
- Crisis Messaging: Continuous emphasis on Kyiv’s "collapse" (citing FT/Klitschko) is being used to demoralize the population and suggest that the central government has lost control of the winter crisis.
- Nuclear Posturing: EU discussions on rearmament (Politico) are being amplified to frame the conflict as an escalating global threat, aimed at stimulating Western "peace" movements.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes along the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk border to fix UA reserves. Potential follow-up drone strikes on Mykolaiv-area energy infrastructure to maximize the impact of the Kulbakino airfield strike.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, multi-vector strike involving cruise missiles and Shaheds launched tonight, specifically targeting the Odesa-Mykolaiv-Kyiv energy and rail nodes to collapse the southern logistical corridor during the peak freeze.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the extent of damage at Kulbakino Airfield. Are aviation assets (Su-24/27) currently operational?
- [HIGH] Identify the deployment sites for "Barrazh-1" aerostats. These represent high-value targets for long-range UAVs or specialized EW.
- [MEDIUM] Determine if the KAB strikes at the Dnipropetrovsk border indicate a new axis of advance or are merely diversionary fire.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the "Sting" interceptor drone deployment to counter the increased Shahed activity in the South.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
