Gerasimov Inspects "Center" Grouping: Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov conducted a field inspection of the "Center" grouping, signaling high-level prioritization of the Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk axis (0450Z, TASS, HIGH).
Urban Advance in Dymytrov (Myrnohrad): Russian forces claim control of the southern portion of Dymytrov, estimated at 30% of the city’s building stock (0452Z, TASS/Gerasimov, MEDIUM).
Sochi Air Alert Rescinded: The UAV threat level in the Sochi region was officially lifted at 0740 local time, following the overnight drone swarm (0442Z, Mayor of Sochi via Два майора, HIGH).
Vremivka Aviation Surge: Guided munition strikes by the 11th Guards Army aviation were confirmed against Ukrainian positions in Kolomyitsi and Gorkoye (Vremivka direction) (0445Z, Воин DV, HIGH).
C2 Friction over Telegram Slowdown: Significant operational friction reported within Russian mobile fire groups and frontline units due to the ongoing Telegram slowdown; "Svod" (national alternative) is not yet fully operational (0426Z, Два майора, MEDIUM).
New Strike Capability: Russian sources promote the "BM-35" long-range strike drone, claiming Starlink integration to bypass electronic countermeasures (0440Z, Операция Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk/Dymytrov) Sector:
Current Force Disposition: Gerasimov’s presence suggests the Russian "Center" grouping has been reinforced or is being prepared for a decisive push to seize the remainder of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad).
Control Measures: Russian forces are conducting "clearing operations" in seized blocks of Krasnoarmeysk, with reported evacuations of 200 civilians (0451Z). This indicates a transition from high-intensity combat to consolidation in specific urban quarters.
2. Southern Sector (Vremivka/Zaporizhzhia):
Battlefield Geometry: The use of guided munitions by the 11th Guards Army aviation in Kolomyitsi and Gorkoye suggests an attempt to interdict Ukrainian logistics supporting the Vremivka salient.
Weather Factor: Operations continue despite extreme cold (-27°C mentioned in context), with VDV units focusing on mine clearance and UAV counter-measures in Zaporizhzhia (0431Z).
3. Russian Rear (Black Sea/Sochi):
Air Defense Posture: Following the confirmation of 68 UA UAVs intercepted overnight, Russian MoD and local authorities in Sochi have downgraded the threat level. This confirms the initial wave of the UA drone campaign has concluded, though damage assessments at the Volna terminal (Krasnodar) are likely ongoing.
Enemy analysis (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Changes: Russian forces are increasingly relying on thermal-equipped aviation and drones to exploit the extreme cold, where Ukrainian personnel and equipment have high thermal signatures.
C2 Vulnerability: The Russian military’s reliance on Telegram for tactical coordination is currently a "self-inflicted" vulnerability due to state-level platform restrictions. This is causing friction in "mobile fire groups" (AD/Drone hunters), potentially creating windows of opportunity for UA UAV strikes.
Capability Development: If the "BM-35" drone indeed utilizes Starlink integration as claimed, it represents a significant upgrade in Russian long-range precision strike capability, potentially requiring a shift in Ukrainian EW deployment.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UA 60th OMBR is reportedly under heavy pressure near Krasny Lyman (0435Z).
Strategic Strike: The overnight launch of 68+ UAVs demonstrates a sustained capability to conduct large-scale, multi-region deep strikes despite the environmental conditions.
Information environment / disinformation
POW Exploitation: Russian channels are distributing video of a POW from the 60th OMBR (Ivan Myshay) to claim systemic abuse within UAF ranks. This is a standard reflexive control tactic to encourage surrender during high-intensity urban fighting.
Domestic Friction: Tension between the Russian MoD (claiming no need for Telegram) and frontline "Milbloggers" (reporting operational degradation due to its slowdown) highlights a disconnect in Russian C2 policy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue urban "mopping up" operations in southern Dymytrov, using the momentum of Gerasimov’s visit to push toward the city center.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Building on the "silence" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (from previous report), the current weather window and Gerasimov's presence at the front suggest a major coordinated missile strike on the Ukrainian energy grid may be imminent within the next 6 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the current status of the "Svod" C2 system and whether Russian units are successfully migrating from Telegram.
[HIGH] Verify the specific technical characteristics of the "BM-35" drone, particularly the alleged Starlink integration.
[MEDIUM] Assess the extent of the 11th Guards Army's aviation damage to Ukrainian logistics nodes in the Vremivka direction.
