Mass-Scale UAV Campaign Confirmed: Russian MoD claims 68 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted overnight across multiple regions, confirming the high volume of the ongoing deep-strike operation (0411Z, TASS, HIGH).
Casualties in Krasnodar: Local authorities confirm at least two injuries following the UAV strikes in Krasnodar Krai (Volna/Taman area) (0407Z, 0421Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH).
Odesa Envelopment/Expansion: New UAV sightings reported over Ovidiopol (southwest of Odesa) moving from the east, suggesting a broadening of the attack vector beyond Chornomorsk (0357Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Kharkiv Artillery Surge: Elements of the Russian 11th Army Corps (Group "North") utilized BM-27 Uragan MLRS to target Ukrainian command posts and drone launch sites in Kharkiv Oblast (0403Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Air Defense All-Clear: Regional alerts in Bryansk (implied) have been lifted, suggesting the first wave of the Ukrainian drone incursion has passed its peak in the northern border regions (0412Z, Bogomaz, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Bessarabia):
Battlefield Geometry: The threat to Odesa is diversifying. The report of UAVs over Ovidiopol (0357Z) indicates a maneuver to bypass Odesa city's immediate air defense (AD) bubble, potentially targeting secondary logistics hubs or the bridge at Zatoka.
Key Terrain: Ovidiopol serves as a critical junction for movement toward the Dniester Estuary and the Moldovan border (Transnistria flank).
2. Kharkiv Sector:
Enemy Activity: Russia is prioritizing the suppression of Ukrainian tactical drone units ("Phoenix" units mentioned in previous daily reports) using heavy MLRS (BM-27 Uragan). This suggests the RU 11th Army Corps is attempting to degrade UA reconnaissance-strike loops to regain localized freedom of movement despite the extreme cold.
3. Russian Rear (Krasnodar/Southern RU):
Sustainment Status: The confirmation of casualties and the scale of the drone swarm (68 units) indicates that the Volna strike was part of a saturated attack designed to overwhelm Russian AD. While RU MoD claims high interception, the confirmed damage in Volna (previous sitrep) proves tactical penetration of high-value logistics nodes.
Enemy analysis
Tactical Adaptation: In the Kharkiv sector, the use of BM-27 Uragans against "points of launch" suggests Russia has improved its counter-battery or electronic intelligence (ELINT) capabilities, enabling them to geolocate UA drone pilots more effectively.
AD Posture: The lift of "drone danger" (0412Z) suggests RU AD has transitioned from active engagement back to a state of readiness. However, the high volume of UA drones indicates Russian AD remains under significant strain.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Multi-Domain Pressure: UAF is maintaining a high tempo of long-range UAV operations (68+ units) while concurrently engaging in localized counter-attacks (Sumy) and defensive drone operations (Kharkiv).
Strategic Focus: The continued focus on the Taman Peninsula indicates a deliberate effort to cripple the logistics of the Southern Grouping before the "concrete freeze" allows for larger Russian mechanized movements.
Information environment / disinformation
Loss Mitigation: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting from reporting only "successful interceptions" to acknowledging casualties (0407Z), likely a move to manage local public sentiment in Krasnodar while framing the UA strikes as "terrorist" in nature.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV probing of the Odesa/Ovidiopol region. Russian 11th Army Corps will likely follow up MLRS strikes with localized probing attacks in Kharkiv to exploit suppressed UA drone coverage.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): As noted in the previous daily report, the "silence" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal and high activity at the 1st AA Missile Regiment HQ suggest a major RU cruise/ballistic missile strike is imminent. This strike is likely timed to hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the blizzard conditions peak.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the BM-27 Uragan strikes in Kharkiv successfully neutralized UA "Phoenix" drone units or C2 nodes.
[HIGH] Identify the specific target in Ovidiopol (logistics, AD site, or transport infrastructure).
[MEDIUM] Corroborate RU MoD's "68 drone" claim with internal UA launch data to assess actual attrition rates.
