Tactical Aviation Surge (Zaporizhzhia): Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0222Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Disruption of UAF Rotations: Russian "Vostok" grouping utilized "Lancet" loitering munitions to strike UAF units during rotation maneuvers in the Zaporizhzhia sector (0210Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Malicious Hybrid Activity: Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) reports the spread of fraudulent VPN applications designed to seize device control for financial theft; likely an auxiliary hybrid operation to exploit security-conscious civilians (0223Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole): This sector has transitioned to a high-intensity fire zone. The combined use of KABs and loitering munitions (Lancets) indicates a coordinated effort to isolate the battlefield and prevent UAF reinforcements from stabilizing the reported breach near Huliaipole. The extreme cold (-27°C) makes stationary units highly vulnerable to thermal detection.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk): Baseline activity continues following earlier reports of drone-corrected 2S1 artillery fire. No new kinetic updates in this window, but the "Center" grouping remains in a high state of readiness.
Rear Areas: The Volna oil facility fire (Krasnodar) and UAV incursions toward Mykolaiv remain active from the previous period, though no new status updates have been received in the last 30 minutes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Loitering Munition Integration: The "Vostok" grouping's successful use of Lancets against rotations (0210Z) demonstrates sophisticated ISR-to-strike loops. Russian forces are prioritizing "targets of opportunity" during the vulnerable windows when UAF units exchange personnel in the deep freeze.
Tactical Aviation: KAB strikes (0222Z) suggest Russian Su-34/35 platforms are operating within range of the Zaporizhzhia front, likely utilizing standoff distances to avoid UAF Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD).
Hybrid Operations: The promotion of fake VPN apps (0223Z) targets the information-seeking behavior of the population during kinetic escalations. This serves both criminal and potentially intelligence-gathering purposes (SIGINT).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Adjustments: UAF Air Force is actively monitoring and signaling inbound aerial threats (KABs/UAVs). Ground units in Zaporizhzhia are forced to conduct rotations under direct observation and fire, necessitating increased use of smoke and EW cover, which is complicated by the thermal contrast of the -27°C environment.
Air Defense Posture: High alert maintained for tactical aviation in the south.
Information environment / disinformation
Operational Security (OPSEC): The reporting of "Lancet" strikes via video (0210Z) is a deliberate Russian effort to demoralize UAF personnel by highlighting the difficulty of safe movement in the rear/tactical depth.
Cyber/Fraud Warning: The TASS report on VPN malware may be an attempt to discourage the use of VPNs to access non-state-controlled information, under the guise of "consumer protection."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue KAB and Lancet strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector to widen the Huliaipole breach before the morning light allows for UAF counter-reconnaissance.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian "Vostok" grouping exploits the disruption of UAF rotations to launch a localized mechanized assault, utilizing the "concrete" frozen ground to bypass traditional road networks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the KAB strikes (0222Z) are targeting specific UAF C2 nodes or are being used for general area suppression.
[HIGH] Assessment of damage to UAF rotation assets in Zaporizhzhia; identify if Lancet strikes have successfully interdicted the primary GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
[MEDIUM] Monitor for any shift in USSF (US Space Force) posture or satellite overflights that may provide high-resolution thermal imagery of the Zaporizhzhia breach.
