Refinement of Volna Oil Depot Strike: Russian emergency services have deployed 67 personnel and 20 units of equipment to contain the fire in the Temryuk district, Krasnodar Krai. RU sources claim the fire was caused by "falling debris," confirming successful penetration of local air defenses (0129Z, RBC-UA; 0130Z, Operation Z, HIGH).
UAV Incursion (Southern Sector): Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian UAVs (likely Shahed-series) are currently transiting toward Mykolaiv from the south (0133Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Artillery Employment (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): Russian "Center" grouping has confirmed the use of drone-corrected 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery against UAF fortifications in the Krasnoarmiysk direction (0135Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Hardened Russian Diplomatic Stance: RU Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that Moscow has officially "toughened" its negotiating position following a previous kinetic strike on the Kremlin/Putin’s residence (0133Z, TASS, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Krasnodar/Mykolaiv): The Volna oil facility remains a primary tactical focus. The deployment of significant emergency assets (67 pax) suggests the damage to the reservoir is substantial and threatens fuel supplies for the Black Sea Fleet. Simultaneously, a Russian UAV wave is currently penetrating the Mykolaiv approach, likely a retaliatory strike or a distraction for further aviation maneuvers.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): Russian forces are maintaining high tempo with self-propelled artillery (2S1 Gvozdika). The use of live drone-correction in this sector indicates a high degree of integration between reconnaissance UAVs and the "Center" grouping's fire support, aimed at softening UAF lines north of Pokrovsk.
Rear Areas: -27°C temperatures continue to stress logistics. The hardening of the RU diplomatic position suggests the Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged winter campaign, leveraging current tactical momentum in the Huliaipole and Pokrovsk sectors.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & UAV Integration: The UAV movement toward Mykolaiv (0133Z) coincides with the previously reported tactical aviation surge in the East. This suggests a multi-vector aerial offensive designed to saturate UAF Air Defense (AD) across both the Southern and Eastern Operational Zones.
Artillery Doctrine: In the Pokrovsk sector, RU is transitioning from massed "grid" bombardment to precision drone-guided strikes using 122mm 2S1 platforms. This indicates an attempt to conserve ammunition while maintaining high lethality against specific UAF strongpoints.
Logistics Status: The Volna strike will likely cause a localized fuel shortage for RU units in Crimea within 24–48 hours if the reservoir cannot be bypassed. Expect increased rail traffic across the Kerch Bridge as a compensatory measure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Success: The Volna operation demonstrates UAF capability to conduct effective SEAD/DEAD or bypass RU EW even during severe winter weather conditions.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the Pokrovsk direction are under increased pressure from "Center" grouping artillery. Counter-battery fire is hindered by the -27°C freeze affecting hydraulic systems on older platforms.
Information environment / disinformation
"Negotiation Hardening" Narrative: RU state media is utilizing the "attack on the residence" trope to justify the recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and the hardening of their diplomatic stance. This is likely intended to dampen international calls for a ceasefire during the winter freeze.
Combat Footage: RU OSINT channels are flooding the environment with drone-guided artillery footage (0135Z) to project an image of technical superiority and high morale despite the weather conditions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The RU UAVs approaching Mykolaiv will conduct "kamikaze" strikes on local power or fuel infrastructure within the next 60 minutes. Simultaneously, KAB strikes will commence in the Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia sector.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the UAV wave toward Mykolaiv as a screen for a Kalibr cruise missile launch from Black Sea frigates, targeting the 39th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment's exposed nodes or C2 hubs in Southern Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the number and type of UAVs currently in the Mykolaiv vector.
[HIGH] Identify the specific units of the 39th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment currently being targeted by RU OSINT to facilitate immediate relocation.
[MEDIUM] Monitor RU rail activity at the Kerch Bridge for fuel tankers redirected from the Volna facility.
