Kinetic Strike on Volna Oil Depot: UAF UAVs successfully struck a petroleum storage reservoir in Volna, Krasnodar Krai, resulting in a significant fire. This facility is critical for fuel logistics supporting the Southern Group of Forces and Crimea (0112Z, TASS; 0115Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Tactical Aviation Surge (Eastern Sector): UAF Air Force reports high activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern vector, likely indicating the commencement of KAB (guided bomb) strikes or Close Air Support (CAS) for ongoing ground operations (0117Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Compromise of UAF Air Defense Posture: Pro-RU OSINT sources have disseminated imagery of a serviced 9K33M3 "Osa-AKM" system belonging to the 39th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. The imagery highlights winter camouflage status and suggests RU targeting of specific AD nodes (0103Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
NATO Strategic Messaging: NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that the Alliance would prevail in a direct conflict if Russia attacks now, reinforcing the "deterrence through readiness" narrative (0102Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Krasnodar/Taman Peninsula): The strike on the Volna oil reservoir (0112Z) represents a successful UAF deep-strike operation into the Russian rear. This facility serves as a primary bunkering point for the Black Sea Fleet and mechanized units in the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Zaporizhzhia Border): The activation of RU tactical aviation (0117Z) follows the UAV approaches toward Vilniansk reported earlier. This suggests a transition from "shaping" strikes (UAVs) to "destruction" strikes (tactical aviation) intended to clear the path for the Vostok group's exploitation of the Huliaipole breach.
Rear Areas: The 39th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment is confirmed operational in winter conditions (0103Z). Their deployment is critical for countering the RU tactical aviation surge, but their exposure on RU social media increases the risk of SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) missions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Maneuver: RU is likely utilizing the blizzard conditions to mask the approach of Su-34/Su-35 aircraft. The timing (0117Z) suggests they are capitalizing on the exhaustion of AD crews who have been tracking UAV swarms for the past 2-3 hours.
Logistics Fragility: The Volna strike (0112Z) will likely force RU to reroute fuel supplies through the Kerch Bridge or the land bridge, both of which are under UAF fire control. This may temporarily slow RU mechanized momentum in the next 48-72 hours.
Targeting Trends: RU state media is emphasizing long-term diplomatic planning (EAEU Summit, May 2026) to project stability while simultaneously intensifying frontline tactical pressure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to demonstrate the ability to bypass RU EW/AD umbrellas in Krasnodar Krai despite -27°C temperatures.
Air Defense Posture: Mobile AD units (like the 39th Regiment) are active but under intense OSINT scrutiny. Winter maintenance of systems like the Osa-AKM remains a priority to counter the tactical aviation threat.
Information environment / disinformation
NATO Rhetoric: Rutte’s comments are being amplified in UA media to bolster morale during the blizzard and RU aerial offensive.
OSINT Leak: The imagery of the 39th Regiment’s Osa-AKM (0103Z) is a deliberate attempt by RU propagandists to demonstrate surveillance reach and potentially bait UA AD into relocating during an active aviation threat.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU tactical aviation will launch a wave of KAB strikes against UA defensive positions north of Huliaipole and logistics nodes in Vilniansk within the next 3 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU coordinates the tactical aviation surge with a missile strike from the Black Sea Fleet (utilizing the Volna fire as a distraction/justification) to decapitate C2 hubs in Zaporizhzhia city.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if RU tactical aviation in the East is carrying KAB-500/1500 or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles to assess the threat range.
[HIGH] Assess the extent of damage at the Volna oil reservoir; determine if the fire is contained or spreading to adjacent tanks.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the 39th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment's sector for RU "Lancet" or "Zala" drone activity following the OSINT leak.
