Multi-Vector UAV Strike on Vilniansk: UAF Air Force reports UAVs approaching the critical rail/logistics hub of Vilniansk from both the East and North, suggesting a coordinated effort to envelop the node's air defenses (0051Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia City Under Direct UAV Threat: Shahed-type drones are confirmed on a course toward Zaporizhzhia city from the North-East (0053Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Expansion of Strike Envelope to Mykolaiv: New UAV groups detected moving toward Mykolaiv from the South, indicating a broadening of the RU aerial offensive to the Black Sea coast (0044Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Tactical Logistics Hazard near Kostiantynivka: Video evidence confirms "Death Road" conditions for UAF/RU transit near Kostiantynivka; vehicles are utilizing heavy netting for FPV protection amidst deep snow (0035Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Alleged Strike on Putin's Novgorod Residence: Russian MFA claims "conclusions have been drawn" by Western sponsors following an alleged Ukrainian attack on a presidential residence in the Novgorod region (0036Z, TASS, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Center of Gravity): The situation around the Huliaipole breach remains critical. The multi-directional UAV approach on Vilniansk (0051Z) is a direct tactical follow-up to the silence observed at the 260th GRAU Arsenal. RU is likely attempting to sever the rail link between Zaporizhzhia city and the Huliaipole defensive line to prevent the arrival of UAF mechanized reserves.
Donbas Sector (Kostiantynivka/Bakhmut Axis): Ground conditions are confirmed as treacherous. The use of protective netting on vehicles (0035Z) confirms that despite the -27°C freeze, drone-on-vehicle attrition remains the primary tactical threat. Kostiantynivka remains a high-attrition zone for logistics.
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv): The approach of UAVs from the south (0044Z) suggests potential launch sites in occupied Kherson or Crimea, targeting port infrastructure or the Mykolaiv air defense umbrella to overstretch UAF resources.
Russian Deep Rear (Novgorod): The RU claim of an attack on the Novgorod residence (0036Z) is significant if true, representing a strike ~400km north of Moscow. However, without UAF confirmation or visual evidence, this is currently assessed as a "false flag" narrative to justify impending strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RU is executing a "saturation and bypass" strategy. By flooding the Vilniansk and Zaporizhzhia corridors with UAVs, they are pinning UAF Air Defense units, allowing mechanized elements of the "Vostok" group to exploit the Huliaipole breach on the frozen terrain.
Psychological Operations: RU sources are increasingly using "Death Road" terminology and POW narratives (referencing previous "Belka" reports) to induce "combat fatigue" in UAF units holding the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk line.
Strategic Intent: The focus on Kazakhstan (0031Z) and "Western sponsors" (0036Z) indicates a dual-track strategy: maintaining a facade of diplomatic normality while escalating the narrative of "direct NATO involvement" to prepare the RU domestic audience for a larger mobilization or a significant escalation in strike intensity.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF remains in a high state of readiness, providing real-time tracking of multi-vector threats. The detection of UAVs from the south, east, and north-east suggests a robust, though heavily pressured, radar network.
Logistics: Units in the Kostiantynivka sector are adapting to "Death Road" conditions through increased camouflage and netting, though the -27°C temperature continues to complicate vehicle maintenance and medical evacuations.
Information environment / disinformation
Novgorod Strike Narrative: The claim by Deputy FM Galuzin (0036Z) is highly suspicious. It serves to: 1) Frame Ukraine as an aggressor against "symbolic" Russian targets; 2) Threaten "consequences" for Western backers. Analytic Judgment: Likely a rhetorical device to mask RU's own planned strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure during the blizzard.
"Death Road" Propaganda: Pro-RU channels are intensifying the visual documentation of destroyed or endangered UAF logistics to offset reports of RU's own catastrophic losses in the Huliaipole breach.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive, coordinated UAV and missile strike on the Vilniansk rail junction within the next 4 hours to coincide with the peak of the blizzard, aiming to paralyze UAF movement in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU leverages the Novgorod "attack" narrative to launch high-precision strikes against government buildings in Kyiv, combined with a mechanized push toward the Vilniansk-Zaporizhzhia highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment; assess if the "reshuffling" noted in satellite data has successfully countered the multi-vector drone approach on Vilniansk.
[HIGH] SIGINT/GEOINT confirmation of any kinetic activity in the Novgorod region to validate or debunk the RU MFA claims.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU mechanized movement North of Huliaipole to see if they are transitioning from a "breach" to a "breakthrough" maneuver toward the oblast border.
