Imminent Massive Strike Warning: President Zelenskyy, citing intelligence, warned of a major Russian missile/UAV strike expected within 1-2 days (1113Z, Tsaplienko/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Air Defense (AD) Depletion: UAF reports critical interceptor consumption rates; missiles delivered on Sunday were exhausted by Thursday due to the high tempo of RU strikes (1118Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Ongoing UAV Vectors: Active Shahed/UAV threats identified heading toward Sanzheika, Odesa (1106Z), and moving south/southwest through Sumy (Shostka/Voronizh) and Chernihiv (1119Z, 1130Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
Fiber-Optic Drone Employment: The 47th Mechanized Brigade ("STRIKS" unit) confirmed successful strikes against RU armor and personnel using fiber-optic drones, which bypass traditional electronic warfare (1117Z, 47 OMBr, MEDIUM).
Energy Infrastructure Degradation: Zelenskyy confirmed that 100% of Ukrainian power plants have sustained damage from Russian strikes to date (1118Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Huliaipole Information War: Pro-Ukrainian sources are dismissing Russian claims of "thousands of casualties" during recent UAF counter-attacks in the Huliaipole sector as disinformation (1130Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa): Persistent UAV pressure continues. After targeting Chornomorsk earlier, drones are now vectored toward Sanzheika (1106Z), likely probing for gaps in coastal AD as maritime corridors remain a priority target.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv): RU is maintainining a steady flow of UAVs through northern corridors. Drones passing Shostka and Chernihiv on a S/SW course (1119Z, 1130Z) suggest a coordinated effort to penetrate the Kyiv AD umbrella from multiple axes.
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Verbove): Following the UAF counter-push near Verbove reported at 1048Z, the information environment has intensified. RU "expert" channels are attempting to frame the UAF maneuver as a failure with high losses, while UAF sources maintain the tactical initiative is holding.
Internal Russia (Moscow): Rare civil unrest/direct action noted with the arrest of National Bolsheviks for blocking Roskomnadzor (1109Z), indicating friction within the radical nationalist wing regarding state media/internet control.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA) Development: The combination of intelligence warnings (1113Z) and the observed "quiet" at RU GRAU depots (from previous daily report) strongly suggests a coordinated, multi-axis missile and UAV saturation strike is being staged for the Feb 15-16 window.
Adaptation (UAV Probing): RU is currently using "cheap" UAV probes across Odesa and the Northern border to force the expenditure of remaining AD interceptors, which Zelenskyy confirmed are in short supply (1118Z).
Logistics: Russian MoD continues to highlight "strikes on depots" to shape the narrative that Ukrainian munitions are exhausted prior to their own upcoming offensive operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Adaptation: The 47th Bde's use of fiber-optic drones (1117Z) is a critical tactical response to heavy RU jamming in the Pokrovsk/Eastern sectors, allowing for high-precision strikes even in contested EM environments.
Strategic Messaging: Zelenskyy’s Munich address is focusing on the "interceptor gap" and the direct threat to European security (mentioning tanks in Budapest, 1131Z) to accelerate AD replenishment.
Unit Stability: The 15th Brigade "Kara-Dag" remains active in its sector (likely Zaporizhzhia/Southern front), with command continuity confirmed (1105Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Sabotage: RU channels are amplifying video of a violent restraint incident in Kyiv, alleging a "TCC murder" (1110Z, Colonelcassad). UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE. This is likely a targeted IO piece designed to trigger civil unrest and undermine mobilization efforts.
Mercenary Narratives: Claims of 7,000 Colombian mercenaries (1117Z, Operatsiya Z) are likely inflated to delegitimize UAF forces and frame the conflict as a Western-managed proxy war.
Damage Assessment: RU governor reports 94 apartments damaged in Belgorod (1120Z), likely being used domestically to justify the "retaliation" strikes warned of by UAF intelligence.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued UAV "drip" strikes through the night to prevent UAF AD crews from resting and to map active radar sites.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RU launches the anticipated massive strike earlier than the "1-2 day" warning, catching UAF during the current AD interceptor trough.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate assessment of remaining AD interceptor levels (S-300, Patriot, IRIS-T) following the "Thursday depletion" report.
[HIGH] Verification of the "TCC killing" video in Kyiv—determine if this is a staged RU production or a localized incident being exploited.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of RU Long-Range Aviation (LRA) bases (Engels-2, Olenya) for bomber sorties in the next 12 hours.
