UAF Counter-attack near Verbove: Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed back Russian elements near Verbove, located along the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border area (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1048Z, MEDIUM).
Environmental Shift (Luhansk Flooding): Rapid snowmelt and a sudden temperature increase have led to significant flooding of streets and private property in Luhansk, likely signaling the start of a premature bezdorizhzhia (mud season) (Mash на Донбассе, 1053Z, HIGH).
Multi-Axis UAV Incursion: Simultaneous Shahed/UAV sightings reported in three sectors: heading towards Synelnykove/Vasylkivka (Dnipropetrovsk), Hlukhiv (Sumy), and Chornomorsk (Odesa) from the Black Sea (AF UAF, 1058Z-1101Z, HIGH).
RU Claim of Strategic Depot Strike: Russian MoD claims a successful strike on a "central base of rocket-artillery weapons" and transportation infrastructure (Colonelcassad, 1059Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). This correlates with recent "quiet" SAR signatures at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base noted in the previous 24h context.
Geneva Negotiation Escalation: Participation of Witkoff and Kushner in upcoming Ukraine talks (Feb 17) confirmed by US Senator Rubio (ТАСС, 1054Z, HIGH).
Diplomatic Offensive: President Zelensky is currently delivering a live address and participating in a panel at the Munich Security Conference (Zelenskiy/Official, 1057Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border: The reported pushback of Russian forces near Verbove (1048Z) is a critical defensive success, potentially stabilizing the southern approach to the Dnipropetrovsk region following the RU breakthrough in the Huliaipole sector.
Sumy Sector: A new UAV vector toward Hlukhiv from the northeast (1059Z) indicates continued pressure on northern logistics hubs, likely supporting the localized RU ground activity previously reported in Hrabovske.
Southern Sector (Odesa): Maritime-launched UAVs are targeting Chornomorsk (1101Z), maintaining the threat to the grain corridor and port infrastructure.
Luhansk Sector: Severe flooding (1053Z) will likely degrade Russian logistics and tracked vehicle mobility in the rear, providing a temporary operational pause for UAF defensive consolidation if the thaw extends to the front lines.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Deep Strike Campaign: RU continues to prioritize "double-tap" or multi-domain strikes on energy and transport infrastructure. The claim of hitting a central artillery base (1059Z) suggests RU is acting on intelligence regarding UAF munitions consolidation.
Aviation/Drone Integration: A suspicious request for private "aircraft-type" transport of a 2kg package toward Mykolaiv (Fighterbomber, 1042Z) may indicate a clandestine effort to bypass traditional military logistics or conduct localized sabotage.
Adaptation to Cold/Thaw: RU is utilizing specialized drones for infrastructure maintenance in Arctic-like conditions (Mурманск LEL cleaning, 1045Z), demonstrating a high level of technical proficiency in extreme weather drone operations that could be transferred to the Ukrainian theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Initiative: The success at Verbove demonstrates that UAF retains the capability for localized counter-attacks despite the broader RU offensive momentum.
Strategic Communication: Zelensky’s presence at the Munich Security Conference (1057Z) is being used to synchronize Western support ahead of the Geneva talks and counter RU "piracy" narratives regarding tanker interceptions (TASS, 1044Z).
Asymmetric SEAD: SBU "Alpha" has confirmed a strategic success in 2025, claiming to have halved the RU Pantsir-S1 fleet (1038Z). This suggests a sustained, high-efficiency campaign against RU short-range air defense.
Information environment / disinformation
"Piracy" Narrative: RU state media is framing international efforts to intercept RU-linked tankers as "piracy" (1044Z) to complicate maritime enforcement and gain sympathy from neutral global-south actors.
Economic Survivalism: RU-aligned channels are amplifying reports of Ukrainian energy deficits and industrial "survival mode" (1102Z) to undermine civilian morale and project an image of an imminent Ukrainian economic collapse.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RU will continue the UAV swarm toward Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa to saturate air defenses before a possible second wave of cruise missiles, targeting the "central base" mentioned in RU MoD reports.
MDCOA: Rapid warming causes flash flooding that traps UAF units in low-lying defensive positions in the Donbas, while RU utilizes thermal-equipped drones to target exposed personnel during the transition from extreme cold.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the "central base of rocket-artillery weapons" claimed hit by RU MoD; assess if this refers to the 260th Base.
[HIGH] Confirm the exact location and scale of the UAF success near Verbove—identify if RU forces have been pushed back to the 2023 "Surovikin Line" positions.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the 2kg "Taxi Plane" request (Fighterbomber) for any reports of clandestine drone/UAV activity in the Mykolaiv rear area.
