Corroborated Presence in Myrnohrad (Dymytrov): Footage confirms Russian soldiers within the heavily damaged settlement, providing aid to civilians (Военкор Котенок, 1008Z, HIGH).
Escalation in Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia: Urgent tactical requests for FPV drones from Ukrainian volunteers indicate high-intensity combat following the reported RU breakthrough (STERNENKO, 1009Z, HIGH).
New RU Advance in Sumy Sector: Russian forces claim localized capture of positions in central Hrabovske (Sumy region) following drone-supported assaults (Сливочный каприз, 1015Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
SBU SEAD Successes: SBU "Alpha" released footage of drone strikes against Pantsir-S1 systems, claiming a 50% reduction in the total Russian Pantsir fleet over the 2025-2026 period (Николаевский Ванёк, 1004Z; РБК-Україна, 1029Z, HIGH).
China Signals Neutrality: FM Wang Yi explicitly stated China lacks decisive influence over the conflict, distancing Beijing from Moscow’s immediate operational goals ahead of Geneva talks (РБК-Україна, 1009Z, MEDIUM).
UAV Infiltration: RU Shahed/Geran-type drones detected transiting Slavhorod (Dnipropetrovsk region) on a northern heading (AF UAF, 1026Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Axis: Visual evidence confirms RU forces are operating within Myrnohrad (Dymytrov). While UAF likely maintains a presence on the western outskirts, the central urban core is contested or lost. This significantly reduces the buffer for Pokrovsk's main defensive line.
Huliaipole Sector: The situation is deteriorating. The call for urgent drone resupply (STERNENKO, 1009Z) suggests that UAF units are utilizing attritional drone warfare to slow a Russian mechanized exploitation of the "Vostok" group's breakthrough.
Sumy/Border Sector: A new point of friction has emerged at Hrabovske. This may indicate a Russian effort to pin UAF reserves in the north to prevent their redeployment to the collapsing Donbas front.
Dnipropetrovsk Rear: Aerial activity over Slavhorod confirms RU is continuing its deep-strike campaign against logistics nodes, likely targeting the rail/road connections between Dnipro and the Pokrovsk front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Exploitation: RU is effectively using small-unit drone coordination to seize localized positions (e.g., Hrabovske) and utilizing winter-equipped motorized units to maintain momentum in Myrnohrad.
Strategic Information Operations: RU state media is attempting to humanize the occupation of Myrnohrad through "aid" videos while simultaneously running "black" propaganda regarding Ukrainian mobilization in Kyiv (НгП раZVедка, 1014Z) to incite domestic unrest in Ukraine.
Hybrid Recruitment: The proposal for a "Gosuslugi" dating service for military personnel (ASTRA, 1005Z) indicates a long-term Russian effort to incentivize military service through social engineering and family-based state benefits.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Attrition: UAF "Alpha" and "Madyar’s Birds" (414th Brigade) continue to focus on high-value asset destruction (Pantsir-S1, logistics convoys). This is an asymmetrical response to compensate for lost ground (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1021Z).
Defensive Resilience: Despite territorial losses in Myrnohrad, UAF units are leveraging the -27°C conditions to target RU heat signatures using thermal-equipped drones, inflicting heavy personnel losses.
Information environment / disinformation
"Busification" Narrative: RU-aligned channels are circulating footage of a forceful arrest in Kyiv, claiming UAF "oprichniki" (henchmen) killed a civilian during mobilization (НгП раZVедка, 1014Z). This is a HIGH-STAKES DISINFORMATION effort to disrupt Ukrainian rear-area stability.
The China Pivot: Wang Yi’s "lack of influence" statement (РБК-Україна, 1009Z) is a strategic signal to the West that China may not provide the "security guarantee" Russia desires during the Geneva trilateral sessions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RU will attempt to establish a permanent logistics hub in Myrnohrad to launch a direct assault on the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway. Deep strikes on Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia power infrastructure will continue.
MDCOA: A simultaneous Russian push from Hrabovske (Sumy) and Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia) forces a catastrophic overextension of UAF reserves, leading to a collapse of the central Donbas defensive pocket.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the RU presence in Hrabovske (Sumy) is a platoon-sized raid or the vanguard of a battalion-strength offensive.
[HIGH] Assess current UAF battery levels and drone stocks in the Huliaipole sector; the urgent volunteer requests suggest a critical supply bottleneck.
[MEDIUM] Verify the authenticity of the "Kyiv mobilization death" video to facilitate a rapid GUR/StratCom rebuttal before the narrative gains traction in Western media.
