Escalation of Tactical Aviation: UAF Air Force reports active launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions (0719Z, 0724Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
Strategic Aid Announcement: NATO Secretary General Rutte announced $15 billion in US-manufactured weaponry for Ukraine in 2026 under the PURL program (0711Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
RU Internal Purge: Former director of the "Kalashnikov" Concern arrested in Moscow; suggests ongoing C2/industrial friction within the RU defense sector (0717Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Persistent UAV Activity: RU drones detected near Sharivka (Kharkiv) moving NE, and ongoing presence over Dnipropetrovsk (0723Z, 0726Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
RU Counter-UAV Claims: RU MoD-affiliated sources claim 20 UAF drones were intercepted overnight across seven Russian regions (0726Z, Voyenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM).
Civilian Casualties: RU strikes in Zaporizhzhia region resulted in 1 KIA and 3 WIA (0708Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk/Donetsk Sector: Following the overnight "mass assault" of 112 UAVs, RU has transitioned to tactical aviation. KAB strikes are currently hitting Donetsk oblast, likely targeting UAF tactical reserves and fortified lines to sustain the momentum of the 56 assaults reported in the previous period.
Kharkiv/Northern Front: Activity remains high but decentralized. RU "Dva Mayors" channels are soliciting 520,000 ₽ for basic Mavic 3 Pro drones for the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment (0704Z), indicating localized equipment shortages or high attrition of tactical ISR assets.
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: A new vector of KAB strikes (0719Z) combined with persistent UAV scouting suggests RU is attempting to suppress UAF logistics hubs connecting the southern and eastern fronts.
Russian Border Regions: RU claims UAF drone strikes killed one civilian in Azarovka, Bryansk (0716Z, TASS/Bogomaz, UNCONFIRMED). This correlates with RU reports of 20 UAF drones active over RU territory, suggesting a coordinated UAF counter-UAS/harassment operation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RU is transitioning from strategic depth strikes (overnight UAV/Iskander wave) to Close Air Support (CAS) using KABs. This suggests RU has identified UAF forward positions that were "fixed" during the overnight freezing conditions and is now attempting to clear them with standoff munitions.
Logistics & C2: The arrest of the former Kalashnikov Concern director may indicate dissatisfaction with the quality or volume of small arms/UAV production. RU units (83rd MRR) resorting to crowdfunding for basic DJI Mavics further highlights a disconnect between central MIC output and frontline requirements.
Aviation: Increased KAB activity confirms RU is leveraging its altitude advantage to bypass mobile fire groups (MFGs) that were focused on low-flying Shaheds overnight.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Ops: RU reports of 20 drones over 7 regions indicate UAF is maintaining a high tempo of asymmetric pressure on RU rear-area logistics and airfields, likely intended to disrupt the launch sites of the overnight UAV swarms.
Strategic Readiness: The $15bn NATO/PURL commitment provides a medium-term hedge against munitions exhaustion, though immediate tactical needs (AD for KABs) remain critical.
Information environment / disinformation
RU "Public Morale" Ops: Moscow sources are pushing "lifestyle" content (Central Telegraph restoration) to project normalcy despite the conflict (0723Z).
Geopolitical Distraction: Both RU and UA-aligned channels are amplifying footage of Donald Trump discussing Iran (0729Z), likely to influence perceptions of shifting US foreign policy priorities.
Hybrid Narratives: RU continues to frame UAF drone strikes as "barbaric" (0716Z) while simultaneously conducting KAB strikes on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Sustained KAB strikes on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk to degrade UAF frontline defenses before the next wave of RU ground assaults in the Pokrovsk sector.
MDCOA: RU leverages identified gaps in the Dnipropetrovsk AD grid (following the KAB launches) to insert a small "precision" wave of cruise missiles or additional Iskanders targeting rail/logistics nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the specific launch platforms for the KABs over Dnipropetrovsk (Su-34/Su-35) and their base of origin to facilitate potential counter-strikes.
[HIGH] Assess the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment's current combat effectiveness in the Kharkiv sector; investigate if the crowdfunding request signals a broader supply chain failure in the RU "Zapad" group.
[MEDIUM] Monitor internal RU shifts following the Kalashnikov director's arrest for signs of broader instability in the RU military-industrial leadership.
