Maritime Engagement (Black Sea): UAF General Staff reports the destruction of an "unexpected vessel" alongside 1,070 personnel losses over the last 24 hours (0527Z, GenStaff, MEDIUM).
Massive Artillery Saturation (Zaporizhzhia): RU forces conducted 655 strikes across 41 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in 1 fatality and 3 injuries (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Casualties in Kyiv Region: Two civilians injured in the Vyshhorod district following RU attacks (0505Z, Kyiv OVA, HIGH).
Fatal UAV Strike (Odesa): An overnight UAV strike on a private residence in Odesa resulted in the death of an elderly woman (0514Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
UAV Infiltration Vector: UAF Air Force confirms a UAV group passing Ochakiv heading toward the Dnipro-Bug estuary (0523Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
RU Communication Degradation: Pro-Russian sources report Starlink service disruptions on the front lines, soliciting 8.5 million rubles for alternative satellite/radio equipment (0511Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Vyshhorod): RU continues to probe Kyiv’s outer defenses. The injuries in Vyshhorod suggest that despite interceptions, debris or localized strikes are impacting the northern approach to the capital.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv): RU is maintaining a persistent UAV threat over Odesa. The new vector toward the Dnipro-Bug estuary (Ochakiv) suggests an attempt to bypass coastal defenses or target maritime assets in the estuary.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Sector: RU has intensified fire missions in the Nikopol and Polohy districts. The 655 strikes in Zaporizhzhia indicate a high-intensity saturation bombardment, likely intended to fix UAF forces and prevent maneuvers toward the southern front.
Maritime Domain: The report of a sunk "unexpected vessel" (possibly a landing craft or patrol boat) suggests UAF continues to leverage maritime drones or RGM-84/Neptune assets despite the extreme cold.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Communication Vulnerability: RU milbloggers are confirming significant issues with Starlink availability. This likely stems from either intensified UAF electronic warfare (EW) or technical geofencing by the provider. If sustained, this will degrade RU C2 (Command and Control) during the current "encounter battles."
Fire Superiority Tactics: The massive volume of strikes in Zaporizhzhia (655 rounds/sorties) suggests RU is transitioning to "scorched earth" tactics in specific sectors to compensate for their inability to conduct rapid ground maneuvers in -27°C weather.
Internal Instability: The prosecution of the former director of "Kalashnikov" for power abuse indicates ongoing friction within the RU military-industrial complex (MIC), potentially impacting procurement cycles for precision munitions like the "Krasnopol" mentioned in previous reports.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Persistence: UAF Air Defenses are actively engaging targets across Odesa, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
Asymmetric Maritime Warfare: The sinking of an RU vessel indicates UAF maintains sea denial capabilities, likely targeting RU logistics or patrol activity near the grain corridor.
Force Attrition: UAF reports sustaining high levels of RU personnel attrition (>1,000/day), consistent with the high-intensity "encounter battles" noted in the previous daily report.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Mockery: RU sources (Kotsnews) are circulating dramatized content depicting UAF draft evasion. This is a coordinated psychological operation to coincide with the high-attrition reports and erode domestic Ukrainian morale (0526Z).
RU Internal Logistics Stress: The public solicitation for 8.5 million rubles for communication equipment by "Russian Spring" (Русская Весна) exposes significant gaps in RU MoD's ability to provide tactical comms at the squad/platoon level.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of the Odesa/Ochakiv corridor to pressure maritime logistics. High-volume artillery fire on Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia settlements will likely persist to mask RU troop movements.
MDCOA: (Unchanged) The high-risk window for a mass missile strike remains open. The "silence" at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base, combined with current UAV mapping of air defense responses, suggests a coordinated strike is imminent.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identification and BDA of the "unexpected vessel" reported sunk by UAF.
[HIGH] Technical verification of RU Starlink disruptions. Determine if this is localized or a systemic failure of RU-acquired terminals.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of RU artillery ammunition types used in the 655-strike Zaporizhzhia barrage. Determine if RU is depleting local stockpiles or utilizing newly arrived North Korean/Iranian munitions.
