New Air Threat (Southern Coast/Zaporizhzhia): At 0444Z and 0459Z, UAF Air Force confirmed new groups of OWA UAVs moving from the Black Sea toward Yuzhne/Koblevo and into Zaporizhzhia from the west/north (UAF Air Force, 0444Z/0459Z, HIGH).
Tactical Precision Munitions (Dobropillya): RU 150th Division is reportedly utilizing "Scalpel" and "Krasnopol" guided munitions to target UAF artillery and UAV operators (Операция Z, 0440Z, MEDIUM).
Thermal Night Operations (Vremivka): RU 29th Army is utilizing thermal-equipped UAVs to strike UAF Forward Observation Posts (FOPs) (Воин DV, 0500Z, HIGH).
Ground Engagement Claim (Sumy): RU state media reports a "failed" UAF counterattack by the 153rd "Arei" Regiment in the Krasnopillya district, Sumy (TASS, 0500Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Rear Defense Confirmation: RU MoD finalized overnight interception claims at 20 Ukrainian UAVs, including one over Bryansk (ASTRA, 0444Z; AV Bogomaz, 0443Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Krasnopillya): The situation has escalated from aerial threats to claimed ground contact. RU claims of a defeated UAF counterattack suggest high-intensity "encounter battles" near the border. If UAF is indeed maneuvering aggressively here (as suggested by the daily report), it indicates an attempt to disrupt RU staging areas for the ongoing UAV campaign.
Eastern Sector (Dobropillya/Pokrovsk): RU is integrating precision-guided munitions (Krasnopol/Scalpel) into their offensive. This indicates a shift toward high-value target (HVT) prioritization, specifically aiming to degrade UAF counter-battery capabilities and drone control nodes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka): A multi-axis UAV threat is developing. Groups are transiting from the Black Sea toward port infrastructure (Yuzhne/Koblevo) while others pressure Zaporizhzhia. In the Vremivka direction, RU use of thermal optics is neutralizing the concealment typically provided by darkness, confirming the lethality of the -27°C environment for exposed personnel.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV: Russia has expanded its UAV strike corridors. By launching from the Black Sea toward Koblevo while simultaneously probing Zaporizhzhia and Sumy, the enemy is attempting to saturate UAF air defenses across the entire southern and eastern periphery.
Tactical Adaptation: The documented use of "Scalpel" (loitering munition) and "Krasnopol" (laser-guided artillery) suggests RU is attempting to overcome the "frozen" nature of the front by using precision strikes rather than massed infantry assaults which are hampered by the extreme cold.
Ground Forces: RU forces (150th Div, 29th Army) remain active despite -27°C temperatures, likely leveraging thermal superiority to identify and strike UAF positions that are forced to use heat sources for survival.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Maneuvers: Claims of UAF activity in Krasnopillya (Sumy) suggest the "Ivan Franko Group" or similar units are conducting spoil attacks to prevent RU from consolidating gains or launching further strikes from the border region.
Strategic Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and vectoring MFGs toward new threats in the Odesa and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Deep Strikes: The confirmation of a 20-UAV overnight operation against RU rear infrastructure demonstrates sustained long-range capability.
Information environment / disinformation
EU Accession Narrative: RU-aligned or amplified reports (via Hungarian sources) claiming Ukraine's EU entry leads to "direct war" are designed to erode European political support and create friction within the EU (RBK-Ukraine, 0457Z).
Specific Unit Targeting: RU naming the 153rd "Arei" Regiment in failure claims is a classic psychological operation tactic to demoralize specific elite units and their supporters.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation strikes against the southern grain corridor (Yuzhne/Koblevo) and Zaporizhzhia energy infrastructure. High-intensity thermal-based skirmishes along the Vremivka and Dobropillya axes will continue.
MDCOA: As stated in previous reports, the "silence" at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base remains the highest-risk indicator for a coordinated mass missile strike. The current UAV activity is likely the final "shaping" phase of this operation, intended to deplete interceptors and map active radar sites.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of ground truth in Krasnopillya (Sumy). Are UAF units currently engaged in cross-border spoiling attacks, or is this RU disinformation to justify further escalation?
[HIGH] Assessment of UAF personnel concealment effectiveness against RU thermal UAVs in -27°C. Need data on the effectiveness of thermal-masking materials in extreme cold.
[MEDIUM] BDA for the RU precision strikes in Dobropillya. Confirm if "Scalpel" and "Krasnopol" are achieving significant attrition against UAF mobile artillery.
