UAF Tactical Counter-Offensive (Zaporizhzhia): The 475th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) conducted a successful tactical offensive south of Zaporizhzhia, seizing key Russian positions and stabilizing the sector (2032Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM/HIGH).
Multi-Vector UAV Infiltration: Russian Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting the Kyiv Reservoir and Boryspil district from Chernihiv, while a separate vector is targeting southern Odesa from the Black Sea (2020Z, 2022Z, 2033Z, 2009Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Kramatorsk Kinetic Strike: Russian UAVs/missiles conducted strikes on military/infrastructure targets in Kramatorsk; nighttime impacts confirmed via video (2027Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
Strategic Iranian Engagement: President Zelenskyy met with exiled Iranian leader Reza Pahlavi in Munich to coordinate opposition to Russian-Iranian military cooperation (Shahed supply) (2006Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
Finnish Military Aid: Finland confirmed its 31st military aid package following a meeting between Presidents Zelenskyy and Stubb (2018Z, 2029Z, Zelenskiy/KMVA, HIGH).
Deep Strike Activity: UAF drone activity reported over Crimea and six Russian regions (Moscow, Kursk, Orel, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kaluga); RuMoD claims 13 intercepts in 3 hours (2015Z, 2021Z, MoD Russia/Sternenko, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv): Enemy UAVs are bypassing traditional border defenses by utilizing the Kyiv Reservoir axis. Current threats are localized to Bobrovytsia and Mala Divytsia, likely aiming for energy or C2 nodes in the Boryspil/Kyiv periphery (2033Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kramatorsk): Kramatorsk remains a priority target for Russian deep strikes. Video evidence confirms successful "arrivals" (impacts) at night, suggesting Russian ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance) is actively tracking logistics or repair facilities (2027Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The 475th OShP's counter-attack is the most significant tactical shift in this sector in recent weeks. The use of concentrated armor to deliver infantry suggests a localized breakdown in Russian drone-based denial (A2/AD) or a successful exploitation of the -27°C weather to catch Russian defenders in static, frozen positions (2032Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
Southern Sector (Odesa): A lone UAV vector from the Black Sea indicates continued probing of the grain corridor and port defenses (2009Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Enemy analysis / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RuMoD acknowledges "retaliatory" strikes (Feb 7-13) as a standard response to Ukrainian activity in Belgorod (2031Z, MoD Russia). This confirms a doctrine of punitive infrastructure strikes rather than purely military objectives.
Logistics & C2: The "Quiet Depot" status of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (from previous daily report) remains the primary indicator of an imminent large-scale missile salvo. Current UAV activity is likely the "shaping" phase of this operation.
C2/Diplomacy: Macron’s opening of a "direct channel" to Russia (2005Z) may be exploited by Russian intelligence to drive a wedge between EU partners, particularly given his insistence on European-only peace frameworks (2019Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Capability: The successful assault by the 475th OShP demonstrates that UAF retains high-readiness tactical reserves capable of complex combined-arms maneuvers despite extreme environmental constraints (-27°C).
Strategic Diplomacy: Meeting with Reza Pahlavi is a sophisticated hybrid maneuver, signaling to Tehran that Ukraine will actively support internal Iranian opposition in response to drone transfers.
Deep Strike Operations: Persistent drone activity in the Russian rear (Kaluga, Moscow) indicates a sustained effort to force the Russian MoD to pull air defense assets away from the frontline to protect domestic infrastructure (2021Z, Sternenko).
Information environment / disinformation
"Peace Referendum" Narrative: Reports (attributed to The Atlantic) suggesting a spring referendum on a peace deal are circulating (2019Z, Tsaplienko, UNCONFIRMED/LOW). This is likely being amplified by Russian-aligned actors to test Ukrainian public resolve or create internal political friction.
Belgorod Retaliation Narrative: Maria Zakharova (RU MFA) is aggressively framing all UAF strikes as "terrorism" to justify the targeting of the Ukrainian energy grid during the deep freeze (2014Z, TASS, HIGH).
US Support Skepticism: Senator Rubio's cancelation of Munich meetings is being used to support the narrative of "Western fatigue" (2033Z, RBK-UA).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Persistent UAV saturation of the Kyiv and Odesa regions throughout the night. Expect Russian "Shahed" drones to loiter over the Kyiv Reservoir to pinpoint AD radar sites.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized missile strike involving Kalibr (Black Sea) and Kh-101/555 (Strategic Aviation) launched to coincide with the 0400Z-0600Z temperature troughs, targeting the thermal power plants (TPPs) already strained by the -27°C weather.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Russian forces will likely attempt a local counter-attack to reclaim positions lost to the 475th OShP to prevent further UAF stabilization.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for the Kramatorsk strikes to identify if specific Western-supplied equipment or logistics hubs were hit.
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of "Quiet Depot" status at the 260th GRAU base; monitor for movement of TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers) in the Kursk/Belgorod border regions.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "Peace Referendum" source to determine if this is a legitimate diplomatic trial balloon or a RU-coordinated PSYOP.
