UAV Vector Shift: Shahed/UAV activity has expanded from Sumy into Chernihiv Oblast, specifically targeting the Dmytrivka and Bakhmach corridors (1942Z, 2003Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Aviation Strike: Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted a fresh wave of KAB (guided bomb) strikes across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (1945Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Evidence of War Crimes: Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) released radio intercepts of Russian forces allegedly ordering the indiscriminate killing of civilians near Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk (1946Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
Strategic Polish Amnesty: The Polish Sejm passed a law granting amnesty to Polish citizens who have voluntarily served in the UAF between 2022–2026, securing a critical pipeline of foreign expertise (2002Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Diplomatic Continuity: Following the Norwegian meeting, President Zelenskyy met with Danish PM Mette Frederiksen in Kyiv to coordinate long-term defense support (1936Z, KMVA, HIGH).
Energy Readiness: First Deputy PM Svyrydenko has issued an urgent directive to prepare all generators and accelerate energy repairs as extreme frost persists (1957Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): The redirection of UAVs toward Bakhmach suggests Russian intent to disrupt rail logistics or locate air defense nodes protecting the northern approaches to Kyiv.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Bakhmut): Video evidence from Bakhmut shows total urban destruction and continued Russian "tours" of the ruins, indicating the area remains a static rear-area propaganda site rather than an active maneuver zone (1956Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM). Radio intercepts near Zelenyi Hai suggest high levels of indiscipline or specific "scorched earth" orders in the Pokrovsk-adjacent sectors.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Continued KAB strikes indicate the enemy is prioritizing the suppression of UAF tactical reserves.
Rear Areas: The temperature remains critical at -27°C. All operational planning is now secondary to the preservation of the energy grid and the mobility of mechanized assets in sub-zero conditions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA) Analysis: Russian forces are maintaining a high-tempo strike campaign (UAV/KAB/OTRK). A retrospective analysis of the last 24 hours shows a multi-vector approach designed to saturate UAF air defenses (1947Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Logistics & Sustainment: The "Dva Mayora" project's fundraising for 3.5 million rubles' worth of steel for vehicle armor suggests that standard Russian supply chains are failing to provide adequate protection for transport vehicles against UAF FPV/drone threats (1949Z, Dua Mayora, MEDIUM).
Psychological Operations: The release of HUR intercepts regarding civilian targeting serves as a counter-narrative to Russian claims of "humanitarian" goals, potentially aimed at influencing Western sentiment during the Munich security meetings.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Personnel & Legal: The Polish amnesty law is a significant tactical victory, as it removes the threat of "mercenary" prosecution for Polish volunteers, likely increasing the stability and recruitment of the International Legion.
Resilience Operations: Accelerated energy repairs and generator deployment are the primary non-kinetic priority. UAF forces are currently in a "hold and attrit" posture, utilizing the extreme weather to degrade Russian personnel in the open.
Tactical Posture: Per the General Staff's 22:00 update, the situation remains "under control" despite high-intensity pressure in the East (2000Z, GSUAF, HIGH).
Information environment / disinformation
"Western Abandonment" Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) and milbloggers are heavily amplifying Senator Marco Rubio's absence from Munich and Senator Lindsey Graham's comments on US domestic politics to demoralize UAF forces and the civilian population (1950Z, 2003Z, TASS/OperativnoZSU, MEDIUM).
Distraction Tactics: Pro-Russian channels are circulating unrelated footage of crime in Chicago to promote a narrative of "Western collapse," attempting to pivot domestic Russian focus away from frontline casualties (1949Z, Basurin, LOW).
Anti-Sporting Narrative: Russian sources are highlighting the CAS rejection of Vladislav Heraskevych’s appeal as evidence of "anti-Russian/anti-Ukrainian" bias in international bodies, attempting to stir grievance (1950Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued UAV probing of the northern (Chernihiv) and eastern (Sumy) corridors to exhaust air defense magazines. KAB strikes in the south will likely intensify to prevent UAF rotations.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated missile strike from the "Quiet Depots" (as identified in the previous daily report) hitting energy infrastructure during the peak 0400Z–0800Z cold window to trigger a cascading grid failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate assessment of Russian rail movements near the Kursk-Belgorod axis to confirm the deployment of munitions from the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of the impact of recent KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia to determine if the target was logistics or personnel concentrations.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Polish volunteer morale and recruitment rates following the Sejm amnesty decision.
