Situation Update (1537 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Critical Infrastructure Strike: A Russian attack on Konotop (Sumy Oblast) resulted in one fatality and the disruption of the municipal water supply (1527Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
- International Support: China has committed to an additional package of humanitarian energy aid for Ukraine following a meeting in Munich, providing a critical hedge against the current deep freeze (1511Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
- Economic Pressure: The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has updated exchange rates for Feb 16, with the Hryvnia (UAH) weakening to 43.10 per USD and 51.12 per EUR, reflecting increased fiscal strain (1514Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
- Border Security (Deep Strike): Russian authorities in Bryansk have declared a "UAV danger," advising civilians to take cover, indicating continued Ukrainian deep-strike operations (1536Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH).
- Unconfirmed High-Value Target: Reports from Igor Strelkov claim an assassination attempt on General Alekseev (likely First Deputy Head of the GRU). This remains UNCONFIRMED and is assigned LOW confidence pending corroboration (1520Z, Strelkov, LOW).
- Naval Narrative Shift: Pro-Russian sources are amplifying reports of the USS Gerald R. Ford deploying to the Middle East to suggest a diversion of US strategic assets away from the European theater (1514Z, Poddubny, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Border Sector (Sumy/Kursk/Bryansk):
Russian forces targeted Konotop (Sumy) with a confirmed strike on utility infrastructure. This follows previous patterns of targeting civilian life-support systems during extreme cold (-27°C). Conversely, Ukrainian UAV activity has triggered air defense alerts across the Bryansk region (RU), maintaining pressure on Russian rear-area security.
Donetsk Sector (Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk):
Operations remain characterized by infantry-heavy maneuvers across frozen terrain. The "silence" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (from 1500Z report) continues to be the primary indicator for a large-scale missile event. Russian paratrooper (VDV) sources confirm ongoing high-intensity combat in the Konstantinovka direction.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Brief air alerts in Zaporizhzhia city (1521Z) were cleared, though "missile danger" persists for the wider oblast. Internal focus in the region has shifted toward long-term stabilization, including new labor regulations for 2026.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Discipline & Morale:
A video surfacing of a Russian "field tribunal" (1519Z) showing a soldier in a stress position with a tire around their neck suggests severe disciplinary issues and potentially extrajudicial punishments within Russian units. This correlates with high attrition rates (177,000 confirmed dead via Sever.Realii).
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Aviation: Fighterbomber reports "ready for takeoff" (1520Z), suggesting VKS (Aerospace Forces) are prepped for sorties, likely in coordination with the anticipated missile strike from the 260th GRAU.
- Logistics: A reported accident in Alexandria, Egypt, involving equipment for the El Dabaa nuclear plant (1521Z) indicates potential disruptions in Russia's international strategic exports/logistics, though the immediate tactical impact is negligible.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Energy Resilience:
The Chinese energy aid package is a significant diplomatic and logistical win. If delivered rapidly, it will mitigate the impact of Russian strikes on thermal plants and water pumping stations (like in Konotop).
Counter-Strike Operations:
UAF continues to exploit the "deep freeze" by using long-range UAVs to target Russian border regions (Bryansk), forcing the redistribution of Russian SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) systems away from the front lines.
Information environment / disinformation
- EU Fragmentation: Russian state-linked channels are heavily amplifying a Politico report regarding a "failed" EU leadership breakfast to frame Western support as disorganized and waning (1527Z, Операция Z).
- US Diversion: Narratives regarding US Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) moving to the Middle East are being used to suggest Ukraine is no longer the primary US security priority.
- Domestic RU Management: Proposals for Muslim prayer rooms in supermarkets (1508Z) suggest the Kremlin is attempting to proactively manage ethnic/religious tensions caused by the ban on prayer rooms in apartment buildings, likely to maintain social stability during the mobilization/attrition cycle.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Russian VKS and missile forces will likely execute a coordinated strike tonight. The strike on Konotop's water supply serves as a precursor/shaping operation to test air defense responses.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A multi-axis strike (Missile/Shahed) targeting Kyiv and the remaining operational thermal plants in Western Ukraine, timed for the 02:00–05:00 window when temperatures are lowest, aimed at causing a catastrophic grid collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Corroborate the status of General Alekseev. If an attempt occurred, identify if it was a Ukrainian operation or internal Russian factionalism (FSB vs. GRU).
- [HIGH] Identify the specific nature of "humanitarian energy aid" from China (e.g., generators, transformers, or grid-scale batteries) and the transit route/timeline.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the Bryansk UAV activity for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) to determine if the target was energy infrastructure or military logistics.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
