Situation Report

Situation Update (1507 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Expansion of Russian Info Ops: The "Rybar" analytical channel has launched a dedicated sub-channel (@rybar_america) focused on US internal and foreign policy, indicating a strategic pivot toward influencing US domestic sentiment ahead of the Feb 17 Geneva talks (1505Z, Рыбарь, HIGH).
• Propaganda Amplification: Russian state-linked media is actively weaponizing Western media reports (19FortyFive) to claim the failure of German-made Leopard tanks against Russian defenses, likely aimed at demoralizing UAF armored units and discouraging further Western armor deliveries (1502Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
• Domestic Security (UA): Chernivtsi Regional Prosecutor's Office successfully recovered a missing minor in Tarashany, demonstrating continued functionality of civil law enforcement and internal security apparatus despite front-line pressures (1500Z, Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH).

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Operational picture (by sector)

Northern/Border Sector (Kursk/Sumy): No change from 1500Z report. Rylsk and surrounding districts remain without power following UAF strikes. The deep freeze (-27°C) continues to exacerbate logistical challenges for Russian border units.

Donetsk Sector (Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk): Russian forces continue to exploit frozen terrain. Intelligence from the 24h context indicates the Siverskyi Donets river is trafficable for infantry, allowing "Vostok" grouping to attempt flanking maneuvers. No new tactical breakthroughs reported in the last 60 minutes.

Western Ukraine: Internal security focus remains high in the rear. The recovery of a missing minor in Chernivtsi confirms that local authorities are maintaining order, which is critical for preventing social instability that could be exploited by hybrid actors.

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Enemy analysis (threat assessment)

Information Operations: The launch of @rybar_america represents a formalization of Russian hybrid efforts to target the US electorate and policymakers directly. This suggests the Kremlin views the upcoming Geneva negotiations as a primary theater of operations, seeking to bypass European intermediaries and pressure Washington via targeted narratives on US domestic instability.

Tactical Narrative: The focus on "Leopard failures" suggests Russian command is concerned about the survivability of their own armor and is using psychological projection to bolster the confidence of their anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams.

Logistics & Sustainment: (Unchanged) The silence at the 260th GRAU Arsenal remains the primary indicator of an imminent large-scale missile strike.

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Friendly activity (UAF)

Internal Stability: The successful resolution of the kidnapping case in Chernivtsi highlights the resilience of the Ukrainian judicial and police systems, ensuring the "Home Front" remains secure while military resources are concentrated in the East and South.

Defensive Posture: Units continue to hold positions in the deep freeze. Tactical innovation (drone-assisted surrender) remains the primary method for localized gains without heavy infantry losses.

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Information environment / disinformation

• Western Credibility Exploitation: Russia is increasingly using a "circular reporting" technique—citing Western fringe or analytical outlets (like 19FortyFive) to validate their own propaganda. This provides a veneer of objectivity to their claims of UAF hardware failure.
• US-Centric Influence: The Rybar expansion signals an expected increase in "Active Measures" targeting the US political landscape to create friction between Washington and its European allies regarding the Geneva format.

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Outlook (next 6-12h)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued preparation for the Geneva talks. We expect an uptick in English-language disinformation from Russian sources (Rybar/Sputnik) aimed at framing Ukraine as a "drain" on US resources. Tactically, expect continued reconnaissance-by-fire along the frozen rivers in the Donetsk sector.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated missile and Shahed strike on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure during the peak of the tonight's freeze cycle. The current "silence" from Russian missile depots (260th GRAU) strongly correlates with previous pre-launch patterns.

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Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Monitor the inaugural posts of @rybar_america for specific themes that correlate with the Kremlin’s Geneva negotiation "wish list."
2. [HIGH] Satellite or ELINT confirmation of activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal to confirm/deny missile loading for tonight's window.
3. [MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the -27°C freeze on RU 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade (African recruits) to determine if cold-weather attrition is degrading their combat effectiveness.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//