Situation Update (1500 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Geneva Trilateral Confirmed: Both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian Presidential Office (Bankova) have confirmed participation in the Feb 17-18 Geneva negotiations. The talks will strictly involve the US, Russia, and Ukraine, explicitly excluding European Union representatives (Операция Z/Peskov, 1437Z; Военкор Котенок, 1454Z, HIGH).
- Kirill Dmitriev in Delegation: Russia confirmed that Kirill Dmitriev (CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund) will be part of the negotiating team, signaling that economic concessions or sanctions relief are primary Russian objectives (Операция Z/Peskov, 1437Z, HIGH).
- UAF Infrastructure Strike (Kursk): Ukrainian forces successfully struck power lines in the Kursk region, resulting in a total blackout for the town of Rylsk and three surrounding districts (ASTRA/Governor, 1445Z, HIGH).
- RU Strike in Rivne: A Russian attack on the Rivne region has resulted in at least one civilian casualty and infrastructure damage (ASTRA/OVA, 1454Z, HIGH).
- Foreign Combatant Confirmation: A captured Nigerian national, Adisa Ridwan Balogun, serving in the Russian 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade, confirmed deceptive recruitment practices and the presence of African nationals in Russian frontline units (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1440Z, HIGH).
- Tactical Innovation (225th OShP): Ukrainian units are now utilizing localized FPV drone strikes as "persuasion" to force the surrender of Russian soldiers in fortified positions after verbal demands are ignored (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1436Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Border Sector (Kursk/Sumy):
The UAF has pivoted toward asymmetric infrastructure targeting within Russian territory. The strike on the Kursk power grid (Rylsk) serves as a reciprocal response to Russian strikes on Ukrainian TPPs. This creates localized logistical friction for Russian border units and shifts the "frozen infrastructure" burden back onto the Russian domestic population.
Donetsk Sector (Konstantinovka Axis):
Russian "Yug" (Southern) grouping is maintaining high-intensity UAV operations. Footage confirms the destruction of at least one Ukrainian artillery piece in the Konstantinovka direction, indicating that RU forces are successfully utilizing reconnaissance-strike loops to suppress UAF fire support (MoD Russia, 1448Z).
Western Ukraine (Rivne):
The strike on Rivne confirms that Russia is maintaining a wide strike aperture, targeting western logistics or energy nodes even as diplomatic talks are announced. This suggests a "pressure-to-negotiate" tactic.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Force Composition & Recruitment:
The capture of a Nigerian national in the 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade provides actionable intelligence on Russian manpower desperation. The use of deceptive "work visa" recruitment for African nationals indicates that Russia is attempting to shield its core Slavic population from further mobilization waves while filling the ranks of "disposable" assault units.
Command & Control / Internal Stability:
The cooperation of Andrey Faleychik (Chelyabinsk Deputy Governor) with bribery investigators suggests that the internal purge of regional officials is intensifying. This may disrupt regional logistics chains for the military-industrial complex as officials become more risk-averse regarding budget allocation (ТАСС, 1442Z).
Tactical Adaptation:
Russian UAV teams (specifically the "Pyatnashka" brigade and Yug Group) are increasingly integrated with localized civilian production (e.g., Ryazan blacksmiths providing metal components), indicating a maturing grassroots-to-frontline supply chain for drone munitions (Рыбарь, 1451Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Successes:
- Energy Interdiction: The successful strike on the Kursk power grid demonstrates UAF's ability to penetrate Russian border AD and target critical infrastructure.
- POW Acquisition: The capture of personnel from the 164th MRB and the 225th OShP's drone-assisted surrender tactics provide valuable human intelligence (HUMINT) and psychological warfare material to counter Russian recruitment narratives in the Global South.
Information environment / disinformation
- EU Delegitimization: Russian state media is heavily emphasizing the exclusion of the EU from the Geneva talks. This is a strategic narrative designed to portray Europe as a secondary player in its own security architecture.
- Rhetorical Escalation: Pro-Russian channels are using stylized imagery of Western leaders (e.g., Chancellor Merz) to frame the conflict as an "economic exhaustion" war, preparing the Russian public for a long-term standoff regardless of the Geneva outcome (Басурин о главном, 1447Z).
- NATO Comparison: Ukrainian sources are highlighting NATO Sec Gen Rutte’s comparison of Russian advances to a "garden snail," a narrative intended to boost morale and downplay recent Russian tactical gains (РБК-Україна, 1448Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Continued reciprocal infrastructure strikes. Russia will likely target the Rivne/Lutsk axis tonight to capitalize on the success of today’s Rivne strike. UAF will likely continue FPV-led tactical pressure in the Sumy/Kursk border regions to widen the power outages.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A massive, multi-vector missile strike (Oreshnik or Kalibr) targeting Kyiv's remaining energy nodes during the deep-freeze (-27°C), timed to provide Russia maximum leverage 72 hours before the Geneva talks begin.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Determine the specific role of Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF) in the delegation—specifically, if he is carrying a formal proposal for "Energy for Sanctions" decoupling.
- [HIGH] Identify the scale of non-Russian (African/Asian) recruitment within the 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade to assess the combat effectiveness and morale of this specific formation.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the repair timeline for the Rylsk power grid to gauge Russian civil defense capacity under extreme cold conditions.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
