Situation Update (1307 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Geneva Delegation Leadership Confirmed: The Russian delegation for the Feb 17-18 trilateral talks will be led by Presidential Assistant Vladimir Medinsky, matching the high-level Ukrainian representation (Umerov, Medinsky, 1257Z, HIGH).
- Strike on Civilian Infrastructure (Sumy): Two Russian UAVs targeted a children's hospital in Sumy at approximately 1250Z, causing external damage; this follows a morning of active drone ingress from the north (Tsaplienko/UA Air Force, 1250Z, HIGH).
- Strategic Joint Venture Inauguration: President Zelenskyy formally inaugurated the "Quantum Frontline Industries" plant, a German-Ukrainian joint venture producing reconnaissance and strike drones (Tsaplienko, 1257Z, HIGH).
- High-Volume Drone Interception: The 117th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Group 7) reported the downing of 10 "Molniya" fixed-wing attack drones, indicating a high-density RU employment of this specific platform (Sternenko, 1250Z, HIGH).
- Diplomatic Pivot (China): Ukraine’s MFA announced an additional package of humanitarian energy aid from China following a high-level meeting; the move targets the ongoing energy crisis exacerbated by the current cold snap (Tsaplienko, 1241Z, HIGH).
- Kinetic Strike in Kharkiv Border: RU sources released thermal footage of multiple FAB-500 strikes on a UA deployment point in Vetrynarne, Kharkiv region (Colonelcassad, 1245Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
- Casualty Information Suppression: Roskomnadzor blocked the "I Want to Return" website in RU, which reportedly tracked over 252,000 Russian military casualties, highlighting Kremlin sensitivity to loss transparency (UA Coordination HQ, 1250Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Sumy Sector:
The threat level has transitioned from "deteriorating" to "active engagement." Following the 1228Z KAB launches, Russian forces utilized at least two drones to strike a children's hospital (1250Z). UA Air Force continues to track UAVs entering from the north (1243Z). This suggests a focused RU effort to saturate local air defenses and demoralize the civilian population in the border region.
Kharkiv Sector:
Despite the advisory for glaze ice and fog (Sinegubov, 1220Z), RU aviation remains active. The reported FAB-500 strikes on Vetrynarne (1245Z) indicate that RU forces are utilizing thermal/all-weather optics to maintain kinetic pressure on UA tactical assembly areas near the border.
Kyiv/Central Axis:
Russian ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) activity is persistent. Reconnaissance drones operated over the capital for several hours this morning; while one was intercepted (1239Z), the prolonged loiter time suggests active spotting for potential high-precision strikes against energy or C2 infrastructure.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Confirmed presence of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (RU) near Hulyaipole (1306Z). This unit's activity, combined with previous reports of the "Vostok" grouping pushing on the Pokrovsk axis, confirms a sustained RU effort to probe the Southern defensive line.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Changes:
- High-Density "Molniya" Employment: The interception of 10 "Molniya" drones in a single engagement (1250Z) confirms that RU is shifting toward massed use of low-cost, fixed-wing loitering munitions to overwhelm localized electronic warfare (EW) and SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) systems.
- ISR Persistence: The use of long-dwell recon drones over Kyiv indicates a refined RU "kill chain" intended to identify targets for the "Oreshnik" or other strategic assets mentioned in earlier reports.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- Economic Internal Friction: While the RU Central Bank signals an end to peak inflation (Nabiullina, 1250Z), pro-war milbloggers are noting significant domestic dissatisfaction in the Kursk region. Federal funds are allegedly being prioritized for foreign aid (Palestine, Cuba) over local recovery, creating a potential friction point in RU's domestic "rear area" (Parker, 1246Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture:
- AD Success: Effective SHORAD performance by the 117th OVMBr against fixed-wing assets.
- Industrial Resilience: The formalizing of Quantum Frontline Industries (1257Z) secures a domestic supply line for NATO-standard UAV technology, partially mitigating the risk of international supply delays.
Diplomatic & Resource Management:
- The acceptance of Chinese energy aid (1241Z) is a pragmatic tactical move to stabilize the power grid during the -27°C cold snap, though it carries long-term geopolitical nuances.
Information environment / disinformation
- Domestic Suppression (RU): The blocking of casualty-tracking sites (1250Z) and the detention of activists (ASTRA, 1245Z) indicate a tightening of the RU internal information space ahead of the Geneva talks.
- Distraction Narratives: RU state media is aggressively pushing reports of Western instability (UK cabinet resignations, Portuguese floods, EU meeting failures) to frame the UA-RU conflict as a minor element of a broader "Western decline" (TASS/Fighterbomber, 1302-1304Z).
- Hybrid Influence: RU sources are amplifying civilian skepticism in the Pavlohrad region (1301Z) to project an image of waning Ukrainian national unity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
A continuation of the "thaw-freeze" cycle will begin to impact logistics. Reports of urban slush and mud (1253Z) suggest that off-road mobility will decrease in the next 12-24 hours. Expect a high-volume UAV/missile strike tonight (targeting the energy grid), as RU ISR drones over Kyiv have likely completed their BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) and target acquisition for the next wave.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A breakthrough attempt in the Sumy sector supported by massed FAB-500 strikes, capitalizing on the psychological impact of the hospital strike and the reported "tactical consolidation" in the Alekseyevka-Kondratovka area.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Identify the launch sites of the "Molniya" drones intercepted by the 117th OVMBr to determine the RU drone-unit density in that specific sector.
- [HIGH] Corroborate the FAB-500 strike at Vetrynarne with ground-level imagery to assess the actual operational impact on the 22nd OMBr.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of RU regular units (e.g., 394th MRR) in the Hulyaipole area for signs of transition from "probing" to "assault" posture.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
