Situation Report

Situation Update (1237 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Geneva Delegation Formalized: Defense Minister Umerov announced the delegation for Feb 17-18 trilateral talks (UA-US-RU) includes Budanov, Arakhamia, and Skibitsky, indicating a high-level focus on intelligence and security guarantees (RBC-UA, 1233Z, HIGH).
• Major Logistics Disruption: Comparative satellite imagery confirms the destruction of a logistics hub in Rostov-on-Don (RU) on the night of Jan 13-14, reportedly eliminating components for 6,000 FPV drones (CyberBoroshno, 1224Z, MEDIUM/CONFIRMED).
• Strategic Radar Strike: General Staff of the UAF confirms the destruction of a Russian "Nebo-U" long-range surveillance radar, alongside UAV operator hubs and supply depots (GS ZSU, 1237Z, HIGH).
• Officer Capture: Elements of the 253rd Separate Regiment (UDA) captured a Russian paratrooper officer and three personnel, a rare high-value tactical capture given the current RU "disposable" infantry tactics (Tsaplienko, 1215Z, HIGH).
• Industrial Milestone: The first strike UAV from the German-Ukrainian joint venture "Quantum Frontline Industries" has been officially released (Sternenko, 1221Z, HIGH).
• Kinetic Strike in Kakhovka: Aerial footage confirms a significant explosion at the Trubetskoy Winery in Veseloye, Kakhovka district; the site was likely repurposed for RU military storage or C2 (Hayabusa, 1214Z, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Sumy Sector: The situation is deteriorating. The UA Air Force reported active KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches against the region (1228Z). Pro-Russian sources claim incremental gains and consolidation near Alekseyevka, Varachino, and Kondratovka, though they note that weather conditions are currently limiting FPV drone effectiveness (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 1229Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).

Kharkiv Sector: Operations will be heavily impacted by weather. The Kharkiv RMA has issued an advisory for fog and icy road conditions (glaze ice) persisting through the morning of Feb 14 (Sinegubov, 1220Z, HIGH). This will likely degrade visibility for ISR and increase the risk of logistics accidents.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kakhovka): Active drone incursions are reported from the south toward Zaporizhzhia (UA Air Force, 1224Z). UAF precision strikes continue against rear-area targets in occupied Kherson, evidenced by the strike on the Trubetskoy Winery (1214Z).

Russian Rear (Rostov/Deep Rear): The confirmation of the Jan 13-14 strike in Rostov highlights a sustained UA capability to disrupt RU drone supply chains at the source. The destruction of "Nebo-U" radar systems further degrades Russian early warning and airspace control (1237Z).

Enemy analysis (threat assessment)

Tactical Changes:

• Infiltration Tactics: Captured paratrooper officers suggest that despite the use of "disposable" infantry for initial wave attacks, regular VDV (Paratrooper) elements are being utilized for infiltration and tactical leadership in the "gray zones" (Tsaplienko, 1215Z).
• UAV Reliance: Video evidence from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade ("Vostok") confirms RU forces are heavily prioritizing "hexacopter" hunting and drone-led strikes against UA rotations (Voin DV, 1230Z).

Logistics & Sustainment:

• Supply Shock: The loss of 6,000 FPV components in Rostov is a significant operational-level setback for RU drone saturation tactics in the coming weeks.
• Economic Maneuvering: Central Bank Governor Nabiullina is signaling an end to the "peak" of inflationary pressure and suggesting a slow reduction in interest rates toward 13.5-14.5% by 2027 (TASS, 1227Z). This indicates the Kremlin is attempting to manage a prolonged war economy.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Force Posture:

• UA is maintaining a "strike-and-capture" posture in several sectors. The successful capture of an officer suggests effective localized counter-incursions.
• Integration of German industrial standards via Quantum Frontline Industries is moving from theory to hardware (1221Z).

Diplomatic & Social:

• High-level military intelligence personnel (Budanov/Skibitsky) are being integrated into the Geneva diplomatic track, suggesting that any "peace" discussions are being treated primarily as a security and intelligence negotiation.
• The Ministry of Social Policy has extended deadlines for child benefit applications, supporting domestic stability during the cold snap (RBC-UA, 1214Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• Western Support Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are recirculating outdated NYT reports (from the pre-2022 era) to falsely claim current US pressure on Kyiv to cede Donbas (Operation Z, 1232Z).
• Internal Sabotage Mockery: RU state media is mocking empty seats in the Ukrainian Rada, attributing them to a "diarrhea epidemic," likely an attempt to portray the UA government as dysfunctional ahead of the Geneva talks (Operation Z, 1207Z).
• International Distraction: RU media continues to focus on social issues in the UK and oil shortages in Cuba to frame the conflict as part of a global struggle against "Western hegemony" (TASS/Parker, 1213Z, 1222Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Expect a surge in KAB and artillery strikes in the Sumy sector to capitalize on reported RU tactical consolidation. In Kharkiv, the icing and fog will likely lead to a "tactical pause" for both infantry and UAV operations until Feb 14 morning.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated missile and UAV strike on Southern energy infrastructure (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia) while air defense effectiveness is potentially hampered by the fog and the recent loss of "Nebo-U" coverage (which RU may attempt to compensate for with localized strikes).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [URGENT] Verify the specific location and status of the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade ("Vostok") to determine if they are preparing for a breakout on the Pokrovsk/Southern axis (Ref: Voin DV, 1230Z).
2. [HIGH] Assess the impact of the Rostov logistics hub strike on RU drone density in the Donbas sector over the next 48-72 hours.
3. [MEDIUM] Confirm the exact components of the "Quantum Frontline" UAVs to ensure technical compatibility with current UA frontline signal protocols.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//