Situation Update (1137 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Geneva Negotiations Confirmed: Both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian Office of the President (OP) have confirmed trilateral peace talks (UA, US, RF) in Geneva for Feb 17-18. The Russian delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky (1107Z-1129Z, RBC-UA/OP, HIGH).
- Air Domain Escalation: Multiple drone threats detected: a group in North Chernihiv moving along the Belarusian border toward Kyiv, and another targeting Sumy from the East. A missile alert is active for southern Odesa Oblast (1118Z, 1123Z, 1134Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- Energy Supply Shift: China has committed to an additional humanitarian energy aid package for Ukraine following a meeting between FM Sybiha and his Chinese counterpart (1115Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
- Logistics Disruption: Oil deliveries to Slovakia via the "Druzhba" pipeline have been suspended since early February, increasing energy pressure on Central European transit nodes (1134Z, TASS/Bloomberg, HIGH).
- Internal Security (Starlink): The SBU has issued a formal warning that assisting Russian forces in registering Starlink terminals constitutes state treason (life imprisonment), indicating a crackdown on illicit terminal proliferation (1106Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
- Donetsk Tactical Success: Units of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully intercepted Russian FPV drones over Kostyantynivka using small arms, demonstrating high readiness in the Bakhmut-Pokrovsk buffer zone (1121Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
The threat profile is shifting toward the border regions. Russian forces are utilizing the Belarusian border as a visual/radar screen for UAV maneuver into Kyiv Oblast. Simultaneously, "Severny Veter" units are deploying the BM-35 "Donor" long-range UAV for ISR and strikes over Sumy and Kharkiv, reportedly overcoming localized EW (1132Z, RU MoD/Two Majors, MEDIUM).
Donetsk Sector (Kostyantynivka/Pokrovsk):
Kinetic activity remains high. While previous reports focused on Pokrovsk, the 24th Mech Bde is currently engaged in active drone defense in Kostyantynivka. This suggests the RU "Vostok" grouping is broadening its fire pressure across the entire central Donetsk axis.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
The sector is under significant missile pressure, with a specific threat to Southern Odesa. In the occupied areas, a strike on a "humanitarian hub" in Zaporizhzhia resulted in one injury (1135Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM). RU sources also claim a strike on a civilian bus in Kherson (1125Z, WarGonzo, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Diplomatic Deception: While confirming Geneva talks, RU has downgraded the status of its delegation according to UA operational sources, suggesting the negotiations may be a stalling tactic or "smoke and mirrors" (1106Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
- UAS Innovation: Deployment of the BM-35 "Donor" indicates RU is fielding deeper-strike, EW-resistant ISR platforms to identify Ukrainian administrative and C2 centers in the rear (Sumy/Kharkiv).
- Sanctions/Energy Pressure: The "Druzhba" pipeline suspension to Slovakia serves to isolate regional partners and increase the domestic energy crisis during the ongoing -27°C cold snap.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- Starlink Illicit Use: Continued RU efforts to register terminals via UA collaborators show that despite official bans, RU frontline units remain dependent on Starlink for tactical C2.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture:
- Enhanced Air Defense: Tactical units (24th Bde) are showing improved proficiency in kinetic "hard kill" interceptions of FPV drones in urban environments (Kostyantynivka).
- Strategic Energy Maneuver: Engagement with China for energy aid suggests a diversification of the supply chain to mitigate the loss of TPP-5 and TPP-6 infrastructure.
Internal Security:
- The SBU is prioritizing the neutralization of "technical collaborators" who facilitate RU's satellite communication capabilities.
- Judicial Action: Ex-deputy head of OP, Rostyslav Shurma, has been declared wanted (1132Z, RBC-UA, HIGH), suggesting a continued purge of high-level officials to ensure internal stability before the Geneva talks.
Information environment / disinformation
- Negotiation Framing: RU state media is emphasizing the "no unilateral concessions" stance on nuclear and strategic arms (New START/DSNV) to project strength ahead of Geneva (1116Z, TASS).
- Atrocity Narratives: RU sources (Colonelcassad) are promoting a narrative that the SBU is "hunting children" in Seversk; this is a clear psychological operation designed to justify Russian "liberation" and counter UA war crime allegations (1125Z, LOW/DISINFO).
- Internal Russian Dissent: The Russian Orthodox Church’s call to "pray for Telegram" following state-led throttling (RKN) suggests a friction point between the RU security apparatus and the pro-war blogger/clerical community (1110Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
A continuation of the "creeping" UAV offensive using the Belarusian border corridor to fix UA air defenses in the north, while launching localized missile strikes against Odesa's port/logistics infrastructure to disrupt maritime exports.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A coordinated multi-axis strike (North, East, South) involving "Oreshnik" or Kalibr systems, timed to the exact moment of the Geneva delegation's arrival in Switzerland to force an immediate UA capitulation on territorial issues (Dombas concessions, as hinted by NYT/TASS reports).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Determine the operational status of the BM-35 "Donor" UAV and identify specific counter-UAS frequencies required to neutralize it.
- [HIGH] Assess the impact of the "Druzhba" pipeline shutdown on UA's reverse-flow fuel capabilities from Europe.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor internal RU movements of the "Drone Aviation Regiment" (KhMAO-Yugra) to see if they are being deployed to the Sumy/Kharkiv axis for a renewed spring offensive.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
