Situation Report

Situation Update (1107 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Geneva Negotiation Framework: Russia confirms a new round of trilateral negotiations (Russia-USA-Ukraine) in Geneva for Feb 17-18; the Russian delegation will be led by Medinsky (1058Z-1100Z, TASS, HIGH).
• Air Domain Escalation: Russian UAVs have transitioned from northwestern Kyiv Oblast toward Zhytomyr Oblast, indicating a broadening of the strike corridor (1046Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
• Pokrovsk Engagement: Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are actively engaging Russian units in the garage cooperative area on the southeastern outskirts of Pokrovsk (1104Z, UA DSHV, MEDIUM).
• Energy Resilience Strategy: PM Shmyhal announced Ukraine is "stripping" Soviet-era Thermal Power Plant (TPP) equipment from Eastern Europe to rapidly rebuild the domestic energy reserve (1043Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
• Russian Drone Recruitment: KhMAO-Yugra has launched a specialized 1-year contract for a "Drone Aviation Regiment" with a record 4.1M RUB lump sum, signaling a desperate need for skilled UAS operators (1050Z, Voenkor Kotenok, HIGH).
• Alleged UA Strike on Civilians: Pro-Russian sources claim UA strikes hit an administrative/humanitarian hub in Zaporizhzhia and a funeral procession in Melitopol; these claims lack independent verification (1054Z, 1104Z, TASS/Balitsky, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).

Operational picture (by sector)

Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Sector): Heavy fighting continues on the southeastern outskirts. UA Air Assault Forces (DSHV) are defending the "garage cooperative" sector. This area remains a critical friction point as RU forces attempt to leverage frozen terrain to flank Ukrainian positions.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Melitopol): Russia is actively pushing a "war crime" narrative in this sector, claiming UA strikes on a funeral (Melitopol) and an administrative building (Zaporizhzhia). This likely serves as a propaganda screen for their own defensive failures or as a pretext for upcoming strikes. UA local authorities are focusing on long-term hardening, announcing the construction of underground kindergartens (1039Z).

Northern/Western Sector (Kyiv/Zhytomyr): The threat has shifted west. UAVs that were previously screening the Kyiv Reservoir are now pushing into Zhytomyr Oblast. This suggests a maneuver to bypass the densest air defenses around the capital to hit critical infrastructure or military transit nodes in the rear.

Enemy analysis (threat assessment)

Capabilities & Intentions:

• Diplomatic Offensive: The announcement of the Geneva talks (Medinsky-led) suggests RU is attempting to pair kinetic pressure (infrastructure strikes) with a formal negotiation track to freeze the front while UA is under maximum environmental stress (-27°C).
• Human Capital Attrition: The 4.1M RUB contract offer for drone pilots indicates RU is struggling with personnel quality in high-tech MOS roles, despite recent claims of "moving at a snail's pace" (Rutte, 1051Z).
• Internal Control: Increased calls by Solovyov and Lukashenko to control/ban foreign messengers (Telegram, WhatsApp) suggest the RU/BY security apparatus is concerned about internal dissent or C2 leaks during the Geneva lead-up (1043Z, 1102Z).

Tactical Changes:

• RU is utilizing "digital fog" and propaganda more aggressively in the South to characterize UA counter-battery fire as strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Force Posture:

• Active Defense: DSHV units are holding the line in Pokrovsk against RU infantry flanking maneuvers.
• Logistical Adaptation: The acquisition of Soviet-era TPP blocks from Eastern Europe is a critical "stop-gap" measure that utilizes existing technical expertise to bypass modern supply chain delays.

Internal Security:

• No new updates on the FSB cell disruption, but high vigilance remains around Zhytomyr as UAVs ingress that airspace.

Information environment / disinformation

• Negotiation Framing: RU state media is emphasizing the "trilateral" format (RU-USA-UA) to marginalize EU influence, coinciding with RU-linked reports of a Merz-Macron "split" (1045Z).
• Atrocity Narratives: Claims of UA striking a funeral procession (Melitopol) are being amplified to coincide with the Geneva announcement, likely to weaken UA's moral standing at the negotiating table (1054Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAV strikes will transition to kinetic impacts in Zhytomyr and western Kyiv regions targeting energy or transit hubs. RU will continue localized "meat-grinder" pushes in Pokrovsk to gain "territorial chips" before the Feb 17 Geneva meeting.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile/UAV strike launched under the cover of the current -27°C cold snap, specifically timed to coincide with Medinsky’s "peace" rhetoric to create maximal psychological and physical leverage.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [HIGH] Verify the extent of damage to the administrative building in Zaporizhzhia to counter RU disinformation.
2. [MEDIUM] Confirm if the "Drone Aviation Regiment" recruitment in KhMAO-Yugra is linked to a specific new UAV platform (e.g., "Oreshnik" support or FPV mass-production).
3. [CRITICAL] Identify specific Eastern European nations providing TPP components to assess potential RU hybrid retaliation against those transit routes.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//