Situation Update (1007 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Target Designation Leak (Kyiv): Pro-Russian channels have published specific "target designations" for precision strikes against Kyiv’s TPP-5 and TPP-6 energy facilities, intended to destroy recently restored generation capacity (0939Z, Hayabusa, HIGH).
- UA Counter-Offensive Opportunity: Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks on the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia border, reportedly exploiting significant Russian command and control (C2) failures caused by disruptions to Starlink and Telegram within the Russian information space (0946Z, Tsaplienko/ISW, HIGH).
- Diplomatic Shaping: The Kremlin confirmed a new round of RU-US-UA negotiations scheduled for next week, while linking US-Russia economic cooperation to a resolution of the "Ukrainian conflict" (0942Z, 0947Z, 0941Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH).
- Strategic Defense Production: President Zelensky arrived in Munich to finalize the establishment of the first joint Ukrainian-German drone production enterprise (0959Z, 1003Z, Zelenskiy/RBK-UA, HIGH).
- Tactical Drone Attrition: The UA 3rd Army Corps reports the destruction of 967 Russian UAVs in January alone, highlighting the intensity of the "drone war" (0956Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
- Funding Constraint: Prominent volunteer coordinators report a 90M UAH debt to drone manufacturers, indicating that UAF frontline drone supply is currently outstripping immediate charitable funding (1005Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
A tactical opening has emerged. UAF counterattacks are underway at the administrative border of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (0946Z). This activity coincides with reports of Russian BpLA ingress from the south toward Zaporizhzhia (1004Z, UA Air Force). The Russian "Vostok" grouping (36th Army) remains active in "clearing" operations, though C2 degradation is likely hampering their coordination (1001Z, Voin DV).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Lyman):
Russian forces (5th Motorized Rifle Brigade) are reportedly engaging Ukrainian Ground Robotic Complexes (NRRTK) near Belitske (1001Z, NM DNR). This confirms the increasing use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in the Donetsk axis to mitigate high personnel risks in "meat assault" zones.
Strategic Rear / Air Domain:
The threat to Kyiv's energy grid has escalated from general to specific. The identification of TPP-5 and TPP-6 as immediate targets (0939Z) suggests that a kinetic strike—likely using precision-guided munitions or "Oreshnik" assets mentioned in previous reports—is imminent. Meanwhile, Russian domestic infrastructure shows signs of strain, evidenced by significant flooding in the Moscow Metro (Nizhegorodskaya station) (0947Z, Novosti Moskvy).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
- C2 Vulnerability: The reported failure of Telegram and Starlink for Russian units (0946Z) indicates a critical reliance on non-hardened, commercial communication layers. UAF is successfully exploiting this "digital fog of war."
- Energy Warfare: Russia continues to synchronize its kinetic strikes with the -27°C weather. The public "target designation" (0939Z) serves as both a psychological operation and a likely precursor to a heavy missile wave.
- Domestic Repression: Russian authorities are scapegoating "voenkory" (military correspondents) for spreading "panic" regarding potential border incursions (Kursk) and platform slowdowns (1006Z, Alex Parker). This suggests a tightening of the Kremlin's internal information control.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- Medical Shortages: There is a confirmed "catastrophic" shortage of crisis psychologists for Russian veterans, highlighting the long-term human cost of high-intensity operations (1002Z, Dva Mayora).
- Recruitment Scrutiny: Investigations into the "illegal" granting of social certificates to newly naturalized citizens (1005Z) suggest internal friction regarding the benefits provided to foreign recruits/migrants.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture:
- Munich Pivot: The shift toward joint production (UA-DE drone enterprise) is a critical move toward localized sustainability and reducing reliance on fluctuating Western aid packages (0959Z).
- Counter-Offensive Capability: The ability to pivot to counterattacks near Zaporizhzhia despite the extreme cold demonstrates high troop discipline and effective utilization of enemy technical failures.
Resource Constraints:
- The 90M UAH funding gap for drones (1005Z) is a critical tactical risk. If not bridged by the recent $38B Ramstein package or domestic fundraising, it could lead to a "drone famine" in late February.
Information environment / disinformation
- Western Fatigue Narratives: Russian outlets are amplifying reports (e.g., Politico) regarding European fears of WWIII and reluctance to increase defense spending (0945Z, Operatsiya Z).
- "Mirotvorets" Weaponization: RU state media is highlighting the addition of high-profile figures (Cosmonaut Yurchikhin) to UA databases to fuel the narrative of Ukrainian "extremism" (0958Z, TASS).
- Diplomatic Maneuvering: Peskov’s confirmation of talks (0942Z) is likely intended to project a "willingness to negotiate" to Western audiences while maintaining high-intensity strikes on the ground to improve bargaining leverage.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
A coordinated missile and UAV strike targeting Kyiv's TPP-5 and TPP-6 during the overnight temperature low. RU forces in the South will attempt to stabilize their C2 through alternative radio channels to halt UA counterattacks.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A massed "Oreshnik" or multi-vector cruise missile strike that successfully disables the Kyiv power hub for >72 hours, combined with a localized breakthrough in the Pokrovsk/Donetsk axis while UA C2 is focused on the capital's infrastructure crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the current status of Starlink/Telegram functionality within Russian units on the Zaporizhzhia front; determine if the disruption is localized or a result of broader RU electronic warfare (EW) interference.
- [HIGH] Verify the deployment status of Russian "Oreshnik" platforms or Tu-95MS strategic bombers for the suspected strike on Kyiv energy nodes.
- [MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the 90M UAH drone debt on immediate frontline deliveries to the 3rd Army Corps and other high-intensity sectors.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
