Situation Update (0937 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Strategic Funding (Ramstein): Ukraine has reportedly secured a $38 billion military support package following the Feb 12 "Ramstein" meeting, focused on drones and air defense (0928Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
- Deep Strike Activity (Volgograd): Ukrainian UAVs struck targets in the Volgograd region, resulting in at least three casualties. This follows yesterday’s confirmed hit on the Lukoil refinery (0928Z, Dnevnik Desantnika; 0911Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
- RU Aerial Escalation (KABs): Russian aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors (0912Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- RU Claims of Advancement: The Russian MoD claims to have seized control of four settlements within the "SVO zone" over the past week (0909Z, TASS, MEDIUM - UNCONFIRMED by UA sources).
- Mass UAV Ingress: New Russian BpLA (UAV) threats are identified moving toward Kolky (Volyn/Western Ukraine), Mykolaiv (South), and Sumy (North) (0928Z-0937Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- Internal UA Political Disruption: Skepticism is rising within the Verkhovna Rada regarding the "simultaneous illness" of over 38 MPs, officially attributed to Rotavirus; internal dissent suggests a potential non-biological or targeted cause (0910Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Russian forces have increased the weight of fire using KABs (0912Z) to likely disrupt the UAF local counterattacks noted in the previous report. In the Kherson region, Ukrainian shelling of occupied territory reportedly struck a civilian bus, causing two casualties (0915Z, ASTRA).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Lyman):
High-intensity KAB strikes are reported across the Donetsk axis (0912Z). Russian "Vega" special forces are actively deploying FPV drones against Ukrainian Bohdana-B artillery and Humvees in this sector (0931Z, Kotsnews).
Northern/Western Sectors:
The Russian drone threat is expanding west. A BpLA is currently tracked heading toward Kolky, Volyn Oblast (0928Z). This suggests a widening of the strike envelope targeting logistics near the Polish border.
Strategic Rear / Air Domain:
Russia has conducted one "massive" and six "group" strikes over the past week, specifically targeting civilian/infrastructure objects in retaliation for UA deep strikes (0927Z, Colonelcassad).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
- Adaptation to Deep Strikes: Russia is attempting to justify infrastructure attacks as "retaliatory." The MoD is likely synchronizing missile/drone strikes with the current cold snap (-27°C) to maximize the "freeze effect" on Kyiv.
- Counter-Symmetry: The RU "Vega" unit’s success with FPV drones against high-value UA assets (Bohdana-B) indicates a refined RU tactical capability in localized drone-on-asset suppression (0931Z).
- Information Blackout: Russian authorities have restricted public access to data regarding teacher/doctor salaries and utility spending (0932Z, Sever.Realii). This suggests a move to mask the domestic economic strain of the $61.9B sovereign debt (0910Z, ASTRA).
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Strategic Resilience: The $38B Ramstein commitment provides a critical bridge for 2026 operations, specifically for maintaining the "drone war" parity (0928Z).
- Asymmetric Reach: Continuous strikes in Volgograd (0928Z) confirm UAF’s intent to sustain pressure on Russian energy and logistics, despite RU retaliatory strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
- Targeted Character Assassination: Russian channels are circulating sensationalized/distorted videos of US health officials (RFK Jr.) to erode trust in Western leadership (0924Z, Operatsiya Z).
- Internal UA Instability: Reports of mass illness among MPs (0910Z) are being weaponized by both sides—internally as a sign of government dysfunction, and by RU as a sign of "regime collapse."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV/KAB saturation of Ukrainian forward positions and energy nodes. RU will attempt to confirm its "4 settlement" claim with localized ground assaults to seize the initiative before the Ramstein aid arrives.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis missile strike (using "Oreshnik" or Kalibr) targeting the Kyiv thermal plants (TPP-5/6) during the overnight temperature drop, coordinated with the drone swarms currently entering UA airspace.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Determine the exact location of the "4 settlements" claimed by RU MoD to verify if they are tactically significant or propaganda.
- [HIGH] Investigate the cause of the mass MP illness in Kyiv; assess if this is a biological incident or a precursor to a wider "decapitation" or hybrid disruption event.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the Volyn-bound UAV for potential mapping of new Western aid corridors.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
