UAF Counterattacks (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Border): UAF forces have launched local counterattacks at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, specifically exploiting Russian communication failures involving Starlink and Telegram (0848Z, RBK-UA/ISW, HIGH).
Strike on Prymorsk Data Center: Ukrainian Drone Systems Forces (SBS) successfully struck a Russian data center located in a former post office in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Imagery confirms significant damage to the facility (0844Z, CyberBoroshno; 0900Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Multi-Vector Drone Ingress: Russian BpLA (UAVs) are currently active and entering Ukrainian airspace from three distinct vectors: South (towards Mykolaiv), West (towards Sarny, Rivne Oblast), and North (towards Sumy) (0848Z-0905Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Targeted Energy Strikes: Zaporizhzhia officials confirm several Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in Vilniansk and Zaporizhzhia city earlier this week, resulting in temporary heating and power outages (0859Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Strategic C2 & Technical Strike: Ukrainian forces report additional successful strikes on an electrical substation, ammunition depots, and—significantly—radar equipment at an airfield in occupied Crimea (0900Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Signal: Reports indicate a potential trilateral meeting between the US, Ukraine, and Russia in the coming week, though US officials reportedly state security guarantees are contingent on a peace deal (0850Z, TASS; 0852Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
The operational focus has shifted to the Prymorsk-Zaporizhzhia axis. The destruction of a Russian data center in Prymorsk (0844Z) likely disrupts local C2 and electronic warfare coordination. UAF counterattacks are capitalizing on a "comms blackout" on the Russian side, specifically targeting the seam between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. In Kherson, a civilian fatality was reported due to ongoing Russian shelling (0903Z).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Lyman):
(Baseline remains high-intensity Pokrovsk defense). No significant new ground movements reported in the last 30 minutes, though the UAF continues to exploit Russian technical disruptions.
Northern/Border Sector (Sumy/Rivne):
A new drone threat has emerged from the north heading toward Sumy and from the west toward Sarny (0852Z/0905Z). This suggests a widening of the Russian strike envelope to include Western Ukraine logistics nodes.
Strategic Rear / Air Domain:
The Russian MoD is promoting the "BM-35," a new long-range fixed-wing drone allegedly specialized for targeting airfields (0902Z). This correlates with recent Ukrainian successes against Russian air assets and suggests a Russian priority shift toward neutralizing UAF airbases.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
C2 Degeneracy: Russian frontline units are reportedly facing critical failures in informal communication channels (Telegram) and unauthorized Starlink terminals. The UAF's ability to time counterattacks to these outages indicates high-level signal intelligence (SIGINT) integration.
Force Adaptation: Russian "Tsentr" Group snipers are incorporating motorcycles for winter mobility and training specifically for counter-drone roles (0905Z). This suggests an adaptation to the high-attrition, drone-saturated environment.
Technical Threat (BM-35): The introduction/promotion of the BM-35 drone represents a specific threat to UAF aircraft and hangars. (Confidence: MEDIUM).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aggressive Mobile Defense: Instead of static holding, UAF is utilizing "windows of opportunity" created by Russian technical failures to push back Russian lines in the Zaporizhzhia border region.
Precision Attrition: The SBS is moving beyond simple asset destruction to targeting high-value C2 infrastructure (data centers, radar) which provides asymmetric returns on investment.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating videos of alleged forced mobilization in Dnipro (0842Z) to sow domestic discord and distract from recent tactical setbacks in the same sector.
"Secretary" Rubio Misidentification: Ukrainian/Pro-UA channels are misidentifying Marco Rubio as Secretary of State in reports regarding Russian strikes (0906Z), likely a translation or administrative error, but potentially used by RU to claim "fake news."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Russian forces will attempt to restore C2 via "Wi-Fi bridges" and landlines to arrest the UAF counterattack at the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border. Drone strikes on Sumy and Mykolaiv will likely persist through the morning.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike using the new BM-35 platforms against UAF airfields in Western Ukraine (e.g., Starokostiantyniv or Lutsk) to coincide with the drone ingress toward Sarny.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the current status of the Russian C2 blackout; is it a localized interference or a wider systemic failure of Starlink/Telegram assets?
[HIGH] Technical BDA on the Prymorsk Data Center strike—determine if this affects Orlan-10/30 drone processing or local GRU operations.
[MEDIUM] Confirm the capabilities of the "BM-35" drone; specifically its range, guidance system, and payload to update air defense priorities.
