Situation Update (0837 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Deep Strike on Kotluban (RU): UAF reportedly conducted a missile strike against a Russian facility in Kotluban (Volgograd region). Russian sources claim the use of "Flamingo" missiles, alleging "covert" Western involvement (0815Z, Starshe Eddy; 0832Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM).
- High-Intensity Pokrovsk Defense: UAF General Staff reports repelling 37 Russian assault actions in the Pokrovsk sector over the last 24 hours (0826Z, Liveuamap, HIGH).
- Extreme Weather Hazard: Severe "black ice" conditions in the Donbas (L/DPR) are causing major logistical disruptions and multi-vehicle accidents involving military transport (0824Z, Mash na Donbasse, HIGH).
- Diplomatic Deadlock/Shift: While reports suggest a potential trilateral meeting in Miami or Abu Dhabi next week (0836Z, Politico/RV, MEDIUM), Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko states negotiations are failing due to Russian demands for territorial surrender (0823Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
- Belgorod Force Protection: Regional Governor Gladkov has officially requested civilians in border areas to cease wearing camouflage or military-style clothing to avoid being targeted by UAF (0815Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH).
- C2 Disruption: UAF FPV drones are actively targeting Russian "Wi-Fi bridge" communication relays on high-lattice structures, likely installed to bypass Starlink outages (0826Z, Butusov, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka/Lyman):
The Pokrovsk axis remains the most kinetic, with 37 separate RU assaults repelled yesterday across settlements including Udachne and Rodynske. In the Kostiantynivka direction, RU forces targeted UAF rotations; 13 breakthrough attempts were halted. High friction is noted near Lyman and Sloviansk (10 total assaults), with RU focusing on Svyato-Pokrovske and Yampil. Extreme icing on roads is severely limiting mechanized maneuver (0824Z/0826Z).
Northern/Border Sector (Kursk/Sumy/Kharkiv):
RU forces attempted one major assault in the Kursk/North Slobozhansky direction, supported by 64 shelling incidents and 3 KAB strikes. In South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk area), UAF stopped 13 breakthrough attempts. Ukrainian authorities have formally identified a Russian Captain (96th Recon Bde) for a summary execution of a POW in Sumy (0830Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole/Kherson):
RU aviation conducted a wide-ranging strike campaign against 19 settlements across the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts (Havrylivka to Mykolayivka). Ground activity was reported near Huliaipole and Dobropillya. In Kherson, RU mining of civilian areas continues to cause casualties (0820Z/0826Z).
Strategic Rear / Air Domain:
A Russian UAV threat is currently active in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading toward the logistics hub of Pavlohrad (0823Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
- Logistical Fragility: The combination of "black ice" in the Donbas and UAF strikes on rail/storage hubs like Kotluban (0832Z) is likely to create a 24-48 hour window of reduced RU artillery and reinforcement throughput.
- Rear-Area Paranoia: Governor Gladkov’s camo ban in Belgorod (0815Z) indicates a high RU assessment of Ukrainian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group (DRG) activity or high-precision drone targeting in the border regions.
- C2 Vulnerability: The reliance on vulnerable "Wi-Fi bridges" on towers (0826Z) suggests RU frontline units are struggling with stable communications, likely due to electronic warfare or restricted access to satellite internet.
- Internal Security: FSB activity in Crimea (Wahhabite cell arrests) suggests a focus on neutralizing potential internal dissent or unconventional threats (0815Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Defensive Resilience: UAF maintain tactical control across the Pokrovsk and Slobozhansky axes despite a significant volume of RU assaults (over 50 combined in 24 hours).
- Long-Range Fires: The strike on Kotluban demonstrates a continued capability to hit GLOC (Ground Lines of Communication) and storage nodes over 400km from the front.
- Deep State/Psychological Ops: Presidential statements indicating a refusal of "unfavorable" peace terms (0810Z) and identifying war criminals (0830Z) are serving to bolster domestic morale amid energy infrastructure crises.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Flamingo" Narrative: RU mil-bloggers are pushing the "Flamingo" missile narrative to frame UA strikes as direct Western intervention (0815Z). UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE.
- NATO Unpreparedness: RU/UA channels are amplifying a WSJ report on NATO's "Estonian Hedgehog" exercise to suggest alliance weakness (0822Z).
- Ad-Hominem Attacks: RU channels are circulating sensationalist and false claims regarding US officials (RFK Jr.) to degrade the perceived quality of Western leadership (0824Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: RU will likely maintain high-intensity infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk sector to exploit the current weather window, despite road conditions. Air activity over Pavlohrad and Odesa will likely intensify.
- MDCOA: RU may attempt to capitalize on road blockages in the Donbas by using heavy thermobaric or KAB strikes on stationary UA supply columns stalled by ice.
- Tactical Alert: UAF units should prioritize the hardening of C2 nodes as RU continues to hunt drone operators and communication technicians.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the damage assessment (BDA) for the Kotluban strike; identify if munitions or fuel were the primary target.
- [HIGH] Verify the technical characteristics of the "Flamingo" system mentioned by RU sources; determine if this is a new domestic UA capability or a misidentified Western platform.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor RU troop concentrations near Vovchansk to determine if the 13 breakthrough attempts are a precursor to a renewed offensive on Kharkiv.
- [MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the Belgorod camo ban on RU border security operations—does this indicate a planned RU "cleansing" operation?
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
