Situation Update (0537 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Mariupol-Donetsk Railway Construction: Russia is accelerating the construction of a new railway line connecting Mariupol and Donetsk, aimed at securing a redundant Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) for the southern front (0507Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
- Russian Tactical Advances (Seversk Axis): Russian forces reportedly secured Shurova Gora and progressed through Petrovskoe, Khromovka, and Bondarnoye, aiming to facilitate an operational push toward Rai-Alexandrovka (0511Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
- Massive Strike Tempo in Zaporizhzhia: Local authorities report 559 Russian strikes across 37 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast within 24 hours, resulting in civilian casualties and significant residential damage (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
- Moscow Aviation Disruptions: 80 flights are currently delayed across Moscow’s airports. This likely indicates either active electronic warfare (EW) "GPS spoofing" or a heightened UAV threat environment in the capital region (0534Z, Baza/Novosti Moskvy, MEDIUM).
- Grid Instability in Kherson: A temporary total power outage is reported in Kherson city; technical teams are investigating potential sabotage or damage from indirect fire (0531Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
- RU Counter-UAV Claims: Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of 58 Ukrainian UAVs over the last reporting period, corresponding with earlier reports of wave attacks on the Rostov region (0517Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Siversk/Donetsk Sector:
The situation west of Siversk has deteriorated. Russian forces have reportedly seized Shurova Gora, a key tactical height. This move, combined with the reported clearing of Bondarnoye and Oryokhovo-Vasilyevka, suggests a coordinated effort to envelop Siversk from the flank and cut off the logistics route toward Rai-Alexandrovka. If confirmed, this shifts the battlefield geometry from localized skirmishes to a serious threat of operational encirclement for UAF units in the Siversk salient.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
The high volume of fire (559 strikes) concentrated in the Zaporizhzhia and Polohy districts indicates a "softening" phase, likely preceding a ground push to exploit the frozen terrain. Pavlohrad and Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) also sustained 16 separate attacks overnight (0530Z, Dnipropetrovska ODA), focusing on residential and likely logistics hubs near the contact line.
Logistics & Rear Areas:
The acceleration of the Mariupol-Donetsk railway is a strategic priority for the Russian General Staff. By creating a direct rail link, the RU military reduces its dependence on the Kerch Bridge and the vulnerable "land bridge" coastal road, allowing for the high-volume movement of heavy armor and ammunition directly from the Russian interior to the Donetsk front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Adaptation: In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have successfully integrated specialized anti-robot tactics, claiming the destruction of a UAF robotic platform (0533Z, Colonelcassad). This highlights the evolving "machine vs. machine" nature of the frontline.
- Strategic Aviation/AD: The massive flight delays in Moscow (0534Z) suggest the Russian capital is under a persistent "carpet" of EW interference or is responding to the same OWA-UAV waves that targeted Rostov. This forces RU to divert AD resources from the front to protect high-value political targets.
- Logistics Sustainment: The railway project near Mariupol suggests Russia is preparing for a multi-year conflict, prioritizing permanent infrastructure over temporary military bridging.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strike Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate the ability to saturate Russian airspace, with RU MoD admitting to 58 interceptions. These strikes are successfully disrupting civilian aviation and logistics hubs (Rostov/Moscow).
- Frontline Resilience: Despite heavy shelling, the situation in Kryvyi Rih remains "controlled" (0534Z, Vilkul). UAF engineering units are managing controlled quarry blasts to maintain local industrial output despite the proximity of the front.
Information environment / disinformation
- Macro-Economic Narratives: Ukrainian media is highlighting a significant drop in global oil prices linked to potential US-Iran negotiations (0511Z). This is likely intended to project a decline in Russian war revenue.
- Internal US Politics: Pro-Ukrainian channels are circulating controversial clips of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (0520Z), potentially to influence domestic perceptions of US political figures and their fitness for office.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate gains on Shurova Gora and push forward toward the outskirts of Rai-Alexandrovka. Shelling in Zaporizhzhia will remain at peak intensity to pin UAF reserves.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Kherson and Dnipro energy nodes while repair crews are active, leading to a regional blackout during -27°C temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm UAF control status of Shurova Gora and Petrovskoe via independent ISR or satellite imagery.
- [HIGH] Assess the operational status of the Mariupol-Donetsk rail link (identify specific completion percentage and potential "choke points" for sabotage).
- [MEDIUM] Determine the cause of the Kherson power outage—specifically if it was a cyber-attack, EW, or kinetic strike.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
