Vremivka Axis Aerial Bombardment: (0500Z, Voin DV, HIGH) Elements of the Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Forces are conducting concentrated bombing runs against UAF positions in Verkhnya Tersa, Vozdvizhivka, and Hulyaypilske.
Wave Drone Attacks on Rostov: (0442Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM) Russian milbloggers report "waves" of Ukrainian OWA-UAVs currently attacking targets across the Rostov region. This follows earlier reports of a 58-drone incursion.
Shahed Transit over Northern Ukraine: (0455Z, UA Air Force, HIGH) Several groups of Russian UAVs (Geran/Shahed) are transiting northern Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts on a westward heading, indicating a potential strike on Western Ukrainian logistics or energy hubs.
Diplomatic Pressure on RU Energy: (0456Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM) US Secretary of State Rubio is expected to pressure Hungary and Slovakia to decouple from Russian energy imports, targeting Moscow’s remaining European revenue streams.
Official Targeted in Bryansk: (0504Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM) The head of a rural settlement in the Bryansk region was reportedly wounded in a UAF attack. UNCONFIRMED if this was a targeted strike or collateral.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Vremivka/Zaporizhzhia):
A significant uptick in Russian fixed-wing aviation activity is noted. The targeting of Verkhnya Tersa, Vozdvizhivka, and Hulyaypilske (0500Z) suggests an attempt to degrade Ukrainian secondary defensive lines or pre-emptively strike reserve concentrations. This aerial pressure likely supports localized ground efforts to exploit the current freeze (-27°C) to bypass natural obstacles.
Northern/Central Sector:
Russian OWA-UAVs are currently bypassing Kyiv to the north, heading toward the Zhytomyr-Lviv axis (0455Z). This suggests a shift in targeting toward the western logistics corridor or an attempt to probe air defense gaps created by the redeployment of assets to protect the Kyiv energy grid.
Russian Interior/Strategic Rear:
The Rostov region is under sustained "wave" attacks (0442Z). Given Rostov’s role as the primary logistics and command hub for the Southern Group of Forces (Yug), these strikes likely aim to disrupt the flow of reinforcements and fuel to the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Posture: The 11th Air Force's involvement on the Vremivka axis indicates the Russian command is willing to commit high-value aviation assets to clear the way for ground maneuvers, likely assessing that Ukrainian tactical AD is suppressed or prioritized elsewhere.
Tactical ISR-Strike: Russian tactical UAVs continue to hunt small infantry units (0507Z, Colonelcassad), emphasizing that the "kill web" remains active down to the squad level.
Economic Stability: Domestic messaging (0504Z, TASS) regarding the maintenance of a 16% interest rate suggests the Russian Central Bank is prioritizing currency stabilization over growth to sustain the prolonged war effort.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Deep Strikes: UAF is maintaining high-tempo pressure on Russian border and rear regions (Rostov, Bryansk). These "waves" are likely designed to deplete Russian interceptor stocks and fix air defense systems far from the contact line.
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's upcoming engagement with US Secretary of State Rubio signals a shift toward addressing "leakage" in the sanctions regime, specifically regarding Central European energy dependencies.
Information environment / disinformation
Internal Dissent: The detention of Natsbol activists in Moscow (0450Z) following a protest against Roskomnadzor highlights friction within the ultra-nationalist sphere, though it remains a low-level threat to Kremlin stability.
Militarized Content: Pro-Russian channels (Archangel Spetsnaz) are increasing the use of religious and highly stylized imagery (0500Z), likely intended to bolster morale during the high-attrition winter fighting.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian Shahed groups currently over Zhytomyr will strike energy or transit infrastructure in Western Ukraine. Continued aerial bombardment on the Vremivka axis will precede a localized ground assault.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A massed Russian missile launch (utilizing the "racked" GRAU stocks mentioned in the 24h context) synchronized with the UAVs currently in flight to overwhelm AD and cause a cascading failure of the western energy sub-stations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets of the "wave" attacks in Rostov (e.g., Millerovo airbase, fuel depots, or Southern Military District HQ).
[MEDIUM] BDA for the 11th Air Force strikes in the Vremivka direction to determine if UAF frontline positions have been compromised.
[LOW] Monitor for any shift in Hungarian or Slovakian rhetoric following US diplomatic pressure.
