Quantification of Massive Integrated Strike: (1707Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH) President Zelenskyy confirmed the overnight wave consisted of 24 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and over 200 loitering munitions, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro.
Active UAV Threat - Central/Western Ukraine: (1710Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) A new wave of BPLAs (Shahed-type) has reached the border of Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts, maintaining a westerly course.
Tactical Adaptation - Fiber-Optic FPVs: (1709Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM) Russian "Nemets" group (291st Regiment) reported successful strikes on Ukrainian dugouts near Orekhovo using fiber-optic FPV drones, which are immune to conventional electronic warfare (EW).
Strike on UA Drone Infrastructure: (1717Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian forces conducted a FAB-500 strike on a purported Ukrainian drone launch site (414th BpS Regiment) in Vesele, Kherson Oblast.
Cross-Border Activity: (1715Z, ASTRA, HIGH) Five civilians injured in Belgorod Oblast following Ukrainian drone strikes; confirms ongoing UA efforts to disrupt Russian border logistics and morale.
Claimed RU Capture in South-Dnipropetrovsk: (1701Z, Colonelcassad, LOW) Video footage allegedly shows a Ukrainian prisoner captured by the "Vostok" grouping (Buryatia units) in the South-Dnipropetrovsk direction.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational environment remains dominated by a Russian "strategic freeze" campaign. The scale of the overnight strike (225+ assets) indicates a high degree of synchronization intended to overwhelm the Patriot and SAMP/T batteries defending critical nodes.
Northern/Central Sector: Kyiv remains the primary objective of the ballistic campaign. The arrival of a fresh drone wave via Kirovohrad/Cherkasy suggests the "shaping" phase for a second night of strikes is already underway.
Dnipropetrovsk/Pokrovsk Sector: High-intensity combat continues. The Russian "Center" group is focusing on suppressing Ukrainian infantry and "Baba Yaga" drone operators (1714Z) to facilitate the advance on Pokrovsk.
Weather Factor: A significant snowfall (up to 6cm) is forecasted for Moscow and the surrounding region until Friday morning (1723Z). This may briefly complicate RU strategic logistics or C2 from the capital, while the -27°C temperatures in Ukraine continue to dictate the urgency of energy repairs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Course of Action (Tactical): The use of fiber-optic FPV drones in the Orekhovo sector (1709Z) represents a significant technical threat. These drones bypass the "soft" defense of EW jammers, requiring "hard" kinetic kills or physical concealment for protection.
Strategic Capabilities: The massive use of 24 ballistic missiles in a single night demonstrates that RU has successfully stockpiled high-precision assets despite sanctions, or is receiving expedited transfers of similar systems.
Logistics/Rear: Continued UA drone pressure on Belgorod (1715Z) and the previous strike in Kostroma are forcing RU to maintain a high-alert posture for its internal security forces (Rosgvardia).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Critical Infrastructure Recovery: Repair efforts continue in Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro. However, President Zelenskyy has issued a warning to regional and municipal leaders regarding inefficiency (1716Z, 1720Z), indicating that domestic political pressure is rising as the "death freeze" threat persists.
Defensive Posture: UAF units are successfully employing "Baba Yaga" heavy drones in the Pokrovsk sector (per RU reports of their destruction), maintaining a high attrition rate against RU infantry despite the cold.
Equipment: RU sources are circulating technical specs of the UA "Flamingo" (FP-5) cruise missile (1716Z). UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE. This may be a pretext for further "retaliatory" strikes on industrial sites.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Economic Narrative: Reports of Russia potentially resuming dollar-based transactions (1706Z) appear aimed at signaling a willingness to negotiate or pander to the incoming US administration. UNCONFIRMED.
Blackout Exploitation: RU milbloggers are claiming UA recruitment officers are targeting men using generators during blackouts (1721Z). This is a clear "active measure" designed to spark domestic resentment against the Ukrainian mobilization process.
Olympic Politicization: RU sources (Kotenok) are aggressively highlighting tensions at the 2026 Winter Olympics, framing the exclusion of RU athletes as "ideological attacks" to fuel domestic nationalism.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continuation of the current BPLA wave across Central/Western Ukraine to force AD units to deplete interceptor stocks, followed by a smaller, high-precision cruise missile strike on identified "weak points" in the grid recovery (Odesa/Kyiv).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike during the Moscow snowstorm (1723Z) when visibility is low, utilizing the newly identified fiber-optic FPVs at scale across the southern front to break the "Vostok" sector stalemate.
Timeline: Expected peak of the current drone wave (Kirovohrad/Cherkasy axis): 1900Z-2200Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the operational density of fiber-optic FPV drones. Is this a localized "Nemets" group experiment or a theater-wide rollout?
[HIGH] Confirm the validity of the "Flamingo" cruise missile deployment in Volgograd. Is this a new UA capability or a Russian false-flag/misidentification?
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of Zelenskyy’s critique on regional leadership. Are there specific oblasts where C2 and energy recovery have functionally failed?
